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Show Projection Of Population Hints Increase Population projections just released show that Garfield County can expect 4,050 people by July 1 of next year, up from 3,673 in 1980 when the official federal census was conducted. By July 1, 1982, the county had grown by 264 residents, an increase of 7.2 percent. Showing losses were Cannonville and Hatch with a minus 6.0 and minus 7.4 percent respectively. Henrieville showed a gain of only .6 percent, Panguitch 2.4 percent and Escalante 3.4 percent. Tropic showed a substantial increase of 10.7 percent, Antimony, 16 percent and Boulder 16.8 percent, with the healthiest growth Indicated in the unincorporated areas of the county with a 21.9 percent increase over July 1, 1982. The projections were based on the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Census population estimates for July 1, 1982. The bureau utilized existing records such as births, deaths, net migration, special populations and tax returns to determine individual estimate figures. Each component was analyzed separately under a procedure known as the administrative records method. Associated with estimating populations is making projections according to the figures made available from the Utah State Office of Planning and Budget through the Five County Association of Governments. Projections, explained the Five County AOG information, are measurements of a future population based on a scientifically reliable set of rules and assumptions and conditioned on rates or trends for births, deaths and migration. Projection models have been developed to consider the effects of each of these on a given area. The comprehensive models require a great number cf detailed data sets that are usually unavailable or too cumbersome for smaller municipalities to work with. The Utah State Office of Planning and Budget has developed a sensitive and comprehensive population projection model termed the Utah Process Economic and Demographic (UPED) projection model, model. The annual base estimates for the UPED model are extablished by the Utah population estimates committee utilizing school enrollment figures, vital statistics and LDS Church membership records. The projections involve the trend analysis of 66 industrial indicators. Because the LDS church membership records are an integral part of the UPED model, it is one of the most accurately devised methodologies in the country. Estimates released do not include seasonal residents in Garfield County nor in any of the other five counties in the Five County area. Among the counties in the five county area, Garfield was second only to Washington County, which showed a phenomenal 12.7 percent in the two-year period between 1980 and 1982. |
