Show Seers Silent or on Commodity Trend o r Myth of Current Price Dip i Truman Planned That Way I By BAUKHAGE News Analyst and Commentator It WASHINGTON It is still open season for economists c financial experts and market wizards It took about a week f I I after the first drop on the commodity market to send them themI into their holes Up to that time you could get a prognostication tion anywhere from the Chicago stockyards to Broad to-Broad and Wall t streets or Pennsylvania avenue and street r- r But along about the sixth day of the dip anybody who would tell you ou f. f whether we were facing a permanent nosedive nose or just weathering the flutter of a few yards ards of ticker tape was as rare as a vote against tax tax- reduction that issue itself had changed after the sixth dip The reason no expert would talk was that all of them had been making mak mak- 4 ing wrong predictions XI ever since I. I t Coolidge's permanent permanent per per- f 1 manent plateau V I 1 of prosperity t of It i l pre depression i days or Hoovers Hoover's f- f i- i corner around 1 which prosperity was always duckI duck duck- I ing 1 k The most silent man in Washing Washington I ton was Secretary Secretary Secre Secre- tary of the Treasury Treas Treas- t ury Snyder He He knew that too Baukhage many people remembered remembered re- re what he and others had said eaid two years ago last fall Snyder at that time director had predicted that by the spring of the next year 1946 eight million people would be unemployed In fact so many others believed that that Henry Wallace already dreamIng dream- dream lag Ing of a home with white pillars on Pennsylvania avenue decided to tomake tomake tomake make Sixty Million Jobs a come come- hither plank in his platform He wrote a book with that title and it itt t If became a best seller His book set a 1 goal of to civilians civil civil- tans ians employed by 1950 But somebody must have hare stolen the idea or else they wanted to play a mean trick on Wallace and Wallace and on Snyder Snyder any any anyhow how there were perSons persons per per- sons employed in this country as of January 1948 19 two years early and 10 months before r r. r presidential president al campaign time Likewise in October of 1946 several several several sev sev- eral astute Washington stuff Inside-stuff letter writers were saying privately r f t to their thousands of clients and the 1 monthly survey W was saying in 1 t. t public print that by early 1947 prices would come down One could say on on January of 1947 with considerable considerable considerable con con- accuracy that there was wasa a general agreement on recession i f beginning soon and followed by more a little later t Other writers predicted It a little j I l later ter and some ome by summer were insisting that deflation already was here I But what happened In the V very y year r of that doleful prophecy t t f. f ecy prices started on en the up- up shoot that took them into their t time all high i.- i. r Many other similar bad guesses t might be mentioned all of which 1 contributed toward making the j. j K prophets reticent retice t and so when the slide came In February of this year nobody would even whisper fox for lor fear that not even a kit would appear They knew that nobody would believe them after all the wolfing without that had J I been going on In any case this dip drop depression depression de de- de- de or delusion whichever it turns out to be by the time these lines reach print or later will have its garland of myths and legends entwined about it The best myth of ot course is that Mr Truman planned It U that way The blueprint is simple enough If 11 you are good at reading a blueprint between the lines Prices were getting getting getting get get- ting too high At worst they might r r bring on a real depression before election at best they would bring a series of strikes and work stoppages which might seriously hamper the ther r Marshall plan on the one hand and add to the discontent of the voters on the other It would be like any operation not dangerous from the surgeons surgeon's point of view Just a little amputation of credit at least so said doctors who work on the body I I I economic which would let enough blood out of some businesses to cause a Little unemployment Enough to scare off ocr strikes and make businessmen businessmen businessmen busi busi- a little more cautious about expansion There was some evidence that I this may really have been intended because the President did ask in his November 17 message to congress for credit control and increased bank reserves However when congress congress congress con con- gress said humph to that along with the Presidents President's other recommendations recommendations he be turned around and demoted the man who Is said to have written the deflation prescription tion from the chairmanship of the federal reserve board Marriner I Eccles and put In a man supposed to have more sympathy with an opposite op op- opI I course I I- I I However we mustn't spoil a good story by facts There are arc other points which can can can-be be intro Intro- to give a touch of verisimilitude verisimilitude to an au otherwise other too not-too- convincing narrative The soothsayers soothsayers sooth sooth- sayers say that several methods were pursued some of them successfully For example the President slam-banged slam at what he called the gamblers In commodities who were driving up food prices by speculating Ingrain in ingrain ingrain grain and aud other futures That did open a Pandora's box and some of the plagues released alighted on the very rooftree of the White House But It also threw a ascare ascare ascare scare into the and the markets Then came the day of a n White WhiteHouse WhiteHouse WhiteHouse House press and radio conference when the President made a remark credited at the time by some of his friends as an unhappy slip when he said that if the cost of living living living liv liv- ing was not controlled there would be a crash That got headlines frightened a lot of little fellows who pulled out their chips and combining combining ing lag with other evil released from the economists' economists Jinn bottles did the trick There are many others of these tales which will grow such as the creating of sun-spots sun by the adminIstrations adminIstration's adminIstrations adminIstration's administrations administration's admin admin- energy atomic-energy experts But one is enough for the moment Anyhow it was planned that way Taft Hartley Issue Losing Its Pot Potency There has been a lot of ot noise over the Taft Hartley act lately and on the surface it looks as I 1 if the law might become an issue in the presidential presidential presidential campaign If U that should happen it certainly would help the prestige of Senator Taft Tact But the theold old timers old timers say it cant can't happen As you know last autumn right after aller the act went into effect a lot lotof lotof of people felt its provisions would decide the votes in the bye But those elections came and went and it was hard to adduce any statistics statistics statistics sta sta- to prove that T-H T had figured very much if at all Later on animosity against the law died down But now both the theCIa thedo CIO CIa and have announced their preliminary plans for campaigning against the men who v voted ted for it Taft has used it in his campaign speeches in Midwest centers where labor is strong Philip Murray was indicted under its provisions and both Murray representing the CIO and the International l Typographers' Typographers union have charged it is unconstitutional But the issue still f fails fils ils to command any real dramatic in in- terest This Is another proof of how a controversial issue that calls forth bitter debate and aud stirs up nationwide interest at the moment moment moment mo mo- ment can fade into the background background background back back- ground as time passes and by election day have little or no effect on votes It is much like a fire that makes Page 1 because it breaks out just as asan asan asan an edition of an afternoon paper is going to press It may get a banner on Page 1 if the news is light but by bythe bythe bythe the next edition it may have shrunk to a single head on an inside page expands the importance of all events You may recount excitedly excitedly excitedly edly at dinner how you almost got cot hit by a truck on the way to work But by tomorrow night you'll be telling with much more gusto about a fish you caught last summer S S S The City of f Washington always quails before a real snowstorm like a pup with the hose turned on it |