Show I 1 I 1 d 1 0 now ua US Ss P t i kj P U ca J JL I 1 research bureau says lower death rate not immigration makes census increase MAY BE IN 1930 impossible to calculate with precis precision on population of country at any given date because of lack of statistics now new york the population of tile the continental united states on january 1 1023 was approximately app according to a preliminary estimate made by tile the national bureau of L co Ite research search of this city this shows an estimated gain of since tho the dute date of 0 tile the last government census tito tho figures are necessarily preliminary says tho bureau for the final census figures on birth and deaths are incomplete after tho the end of 1120 1920 how over ever enough data anro available to show that since january 1 1021 tho rate of increase in ill population growth lins has been accelerated noticeably tile present ruto approaching that of prewar years nils ills ill more ore rapid gain in population according to the bureau has been brought nebout partly by increase in not migration but has been decidedly reinforced by a reduction in the 1 leath death rate in ln 1930 at the present rate of bf growth the population at tile tho 1636 census will reach it Is impossible 0 to o calculate with precision tile the population of tile country at any given date tile the statement of the bureau says tile reason being that in many states state s births and deaths are not reported and even in tho the registration area ft a very considerable number of deaths and still more births app ar to escape being recorded there ire presumably ably tilso minor errors I 1 the statistics of lin migration because of the difficulties involved tile the census bureau has made its estimates of tile the kopul population alloh for the years on tho the simple us as that the rute rate of growth la Is the same as in the preceding preg gOing decade this census process which Is termed a straight line extrapolation has its to corn commend mend it for when applied errors of considerable re BO gradually accumulate as changing conditions affect population growth for example ezor ople the official method showed a population for january 1 1020 nearly 2 greater than that given by tile tho actual consul census count on oil that date correcting the tha difficulty the method of broce procedure dure devised by national bureau of n economic i betho search to correct this difficulty Is relatively simply the number of births and deaths have been estimated for each halt linof year and tho the increase In creaso of lively simple tho the nu number aber of births over deaths has las been calculated this amount has hag been corrected by adding tile the excess of immigration over aint emigration for each halt year the population for june 30 has fins been estimated from a smooth curve and figures have then been built up for each halt year until the census of 1920 1020 the estimate thus arrived at for january 1 1020 Is in error by app approximately roxi half a million or only about one fourth of the corresponding error resulting from the method of estimate the labors of the bureau in tills have been under the immediate direction of dr willford Wll lford 1 I king formerly assistant professor of political economy of the university ol of wisconsin who has been engaged on this work since 1021 |