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' :::?::::"::7':': :' ':::"'''': '''' ':!i:'ii':VI kS::::::::'':i- I '' - '''' : ' :' 4 ' If i' C'l'' " ::::::"':'::::::::'-::::A:"''::"::-::::::::'4:::''- ':' '': i state-by-stat- ' 4' '' :'-!'-- V:i:::':::?-:::- $ ' e I W4311 ' ii i 1 - CALIF ( 'iI a I' 1"" UTAK —I :1-- 11 IL -- A -- 4 d " it ARM 't(:1:Ti:"'''''' n i1 I i I 1 N " I ii 11 41 se 4er 1 ' i 1)" '‘ ) 1 1 litAN 1ASS I( i T vr--- ''‘ - r - II 1 TEXAS ) -- 1 - — 111111111 CONN 111 Ifillim 11 1 1 1 Dem Today Irktiff-1:- V l'''ARK ii Ii I 0 OKLA 11:'!Litilli i1 gy ''71 ii 4 1 I- 'N4o i g I Rep Today r --- ')'' 0 V' ' t n --- -it 1: M I IL---- I -7 00M4: VIF I 1 0 k d 1 ‘: i1 WYO r Ii NEIV ::':l — -"- --r- i ' ' v it s iN 1 1 II N 1)10A Oltt ce - -- ) ALA 1 1 1 1 1 ‘ 1 V ' 0"1 r- f r0 o - vik— '' 11 to 43 Two major developments of the past few clays are not corn- - Nr11711111111111111111 C C S GP" ‘t i r11111 4— 1 1ffi10 i 'Mt LAMM011atgb 1111W1111111111111111Viiiik —while the president la &hese the remaining 28 states the second Gallup F Ii shows today Wendell Wade leads President RoSsevelt in 20 states with an electoral vote total of 281—or 18 more than the necessary 266 state-by-sta- If Elction Were Today States Leaning Democratic-2- 8 August 25 PIN of Ch In FDR Vote Since Electoral South Carolina Mississippi Georgia Texas Alabama Louisiana Arkansas 7 Florida 13 North Carolina 11 Virginia 2 Arizona 11 'Tennessee 3 Nevada 11 Oklahoma 4 Montana 4 Utah 11 Kentucky 8 Maryland 8 Washington 22 California 3 New Mexico 3 Delaware 8 West Virginia 5 Oregon 3 Wyoming 4 Idaho 15 Missouri 8 Connecticut 8 9 12 23 11 10 9 Willkie Roosevelt Votes 97 94 85 85 84 - 247 6 15 15 ' 16 19 23 27 31 31 32 35 37 40 7 73 69 69 68 65 63 60 58 57 56 56 55 54 51 54 53 52 52 52 51 51 - - 0 0 —1 —1 —1 —1 0 4 1 3 —1 i —1 42 43 44 41 45 46 46 - - —1 —1 3 11 4 Aug 5 4 1 0 3 3 0 2 4 2 0 5 46 47 ' 4 48 44 48 43 0 2 49 Electoral Votes Electoral Votes 5 Maine 11 Iowa 4 South Dakota 14 Indiana 3 Vermont 9 Kansas 4 New Hampshire 7 Nebraska 29 Illinois 19 Michigan 17 Maszachusetts 11 Minnesota 26 Ohio 4 North Dakota 6 Colorado 47 New York 4 Rhode Island 16 New Jersey 36 Pennsylvania 12 Wisconsin Wi Ilkie 64 61 60 60 59 58 - 11 36 39 40 0 40' 41 5 0 -12 54— 42 43 43 43 44 45 45 45 46 53 47 52 48 13 0 0 51 51 51 49 '0 49 3 49 49 - 1 57 57 57 56 55 55 55 s Pfs of Chge in Willkie Vote Since I Roosevelt Aug 4 51 51-4- -- 14 44 44 42 -- es Electoral Votes 284 Note by Dr Gallup: The above figures indicate onlywh t would happen if the election were today They do not constituie a forecast of the outcome in November In interpreting figures for each state it should be remembered that some margin error is involved in every sampling operation due to the siz of the sample itself In the present survey the statistical proba bilities indicate that the average error per state resulting from the size of the sample will not exceed plus or minus 4 per cent East-centr- al Wast-eentr- al - ee d" ibis brier Survey Accuracy-DependOn WHO Is Interviewed s OP - In every 'American Institute of Public Opinion survey inn terviews are conducted among 'a carefully selected of the voting population in each state Depending :on statistical requirements the Institute Includes from 3000 'to 60000 Interviews in these surveys Such samples insure 'that any error due solely to the number of people inter-- 'viewed will 'not under any practical circumstances exceed 4 per cent Accordlnuto the laws of probability the statistical odds actually are 997 In 1000 that the error will not exceed 274 per cent Accuracy in public opinion surveys such as this is almost The Institute uses entirely a function of who is interviewed 'six statistical keys or "controls" to assure that those who 'are included in any survey compose a true crosssection of of the voters the voting population in each state If of the ballots received Pt a state live on farm of from that state must come from farmers If of the bal"the voting population is on relief then Jots must come from reliant And so on or the major population groups cross-'sectio- dents board ! °ray to by d fol- pilot 1g in-- is -- at- lerted g the to fly 7ound tg cc d stu- image 'Juries Intent ' one-thir- one-thir- By Eugene Burns HONOLULU (Correspondence of The Associated Pre)—In '25 d d one-eight- h one-eight- h t short years the United State' theoretical western line of de- tense has jumped some 2000 miles across the Pacific ocean One hundred and fifty years ago this line wasethe Allegheny mountain range a century ago the rockies 50 years ago the Pacific ocean 25 Hawaii But today many naval strategists consider that tills line has been pushed out to tuam Midway the Line islands and Johnston and Palmyra—a full 2000 mile from Hawaii Long-rang- e submarines capable of a 5000-mil- e cruise 35p0mile patrol bombers ' and swift airplane carriers have changed the defense plans of the United States That change has not affected the mainland so much as affected Hawaii—profoundly Whereas five years ago the navy was concentrating on work like oil storage tanks within the Industrial area of Pearl harbor Itself today it is asking for money to develop outpost defense lines a thousand and 2000 miles from Oahu to protect Pearl harbor and with it the Pacific diesel-power- lit while de of 7cratt story United States Defense Frontier Pushes Farther Westward Across Pacific Five years ago Johnston is1e the south of Hawaii wa still charted by official maps as "uncertain" but today a most certain $1500000seap1ane base Is there Similarly at Palmyra and Midway bases are being built to protect Hawaii's scouting arm and perhaps more Important to keep the enemy from getting a foothold in the Pacific close enough to harass or menace the safety of Hawaii the Panama canal or the Pacific coast ' Another change brought about naUse the extended by by many tions of the airplane carrier Is the bringing to Hawaii of a detachment of swiftmoving and e g and ob 850 miles to swift-strikin- long-rang- ar men-of-w- coast There 2000 miles from ?mail' the navy intends today to meet any enemy and if defeated—a possibility which must be considered in all plans—retire organize and fight again And if defeated again withdraw to the sedgy of shOrt batteries like those on the bland of Chdnu fense v- - Homes Are Demolished Alumnae of Penn State For Army Air Sehoo Marry ExClassmates MONTGOMERY Ala (UP) —Alabama's capitalcity is lacing a minor housing problem The local hoUsing authority is seeking homes for familles'in areas of the city now being de-- molished to make way for a 0000000 housing project for the new U S army southeastern air behool The authority has made a public appeal for ziew homes for the "homeless" and has employed a real estate agent to comb the city So far no re suit& STATE COLLEGE Pa (UP) —State college coeds not only go to school to get an edncalion they get their man A ourvey conducted by the dean of women among Penn State alumnae 'graduated between 1921 and 1935 showed that 53 per cent of those girls married have Penn State husbands For that periodtwo out of every' 'three women have married tind two-thirof those married have children Seventeen per cent of the married alumnae report part-tim- e or full-tiJobs outside the home ds Va warfare The memory Of a German air raid on the French coastil city Dunkirk during the World war in 1918 set the E: G West working on the device 10 years ago It was completed in 1938 The war department is studying the bomb for its possible use West feels certain it will be accepted Ile offered it to the government as soon as it was completed beeause it was a weapon of offense and not defense For obvious reasons the ex-'a- ct workings of the aerial drifting bomb must remain secret West describes it as a bomb attached to a pailachute which' can be released by hand from light planes ormechanically from heavier aircraft Once released the parachute opens immediately and a connecting cable is fed to it front the shell ease until both pare-chu- te and cable are fully extended In this position a safety pin is withdrawn mak ing the bomb explosive at the slightest contact West said there is a trigger 13 Inches ' below the shell case which causes the bomb to explode when it strikes an object each stateasked: "If the presidential election were being held today would you vote for the Republican candidate Winkle or the Democratic candidate Roosevelt?" The replies in both institute surveys to date have been: Winkle Roosevelt 51 August 4 survey —49 51 Today's survey —49 Twelve per cent of those interviewed (as compared with 13 per cent three weeks ago) said they had made no definite choice or were undecided Wilikie Gains In Big States Possibly the most important developments of the past three weeks have been certain sectional tendencies which may or may not assume greater importance as the campaign progresses: 1 President Roosevelt las gained In a number of far western states Including Oregon Montana Wmhington Idaho Utah Nevada New Wyoming Mexico and Arizona despite the fact that the Republican vice presidential candidate Senator comes from the far McNary west and has !been counted on by4he Republicans to help carry the section in November One possible explanation for Mr Roosevelt's gains in the far west is that Senator McNary has thus far taken almost n active Part in the Republican campaign 2 Wendell Willkie on the other head has strengthened his grip on several of the large states east of the Mississippi such as Ohio? Indiana Illinois and Michigan Whereas he led In these states by relatively narrow margins three weeks ago his vote today is respectively 55 percent 60 per cent $7 per cent and 56 per cent S the survey Altogether shows Roosevelt has gained in 17 states Winkle has gained in 18 and there has been no net change in the remaining It Most of the farm belt states have shown gaini for Willkie of from 1 to 4 percentage points 4 As of today the cruoial a Wilikle's position in the race today like Governor Landon's at a similar time in 1936 is thus Unlike extremely vulnerable President Roosevelt he cannot on a large and solid blod count of states in the south The course of events in Europe furThermore may have a powerful effect on the trends of political In the past sentiment here President Roosevelt's popularity' has risen sharply with the intensifying of Europe's crises Mr Wilikle's effectiveness as a campaigner has still to be measured however and this may prove4 to be a counter bilandng factor In the G O F candidate's favor A 7!-':- ! t ! In 1936 Institute surveys showed that Governor Landon led President Roosevelt in electoral votes throughout July and the early part of August but fell behind following the busi fleas upturn which began in the late summer and following Landon's first major sOeeches By August 23 1936—almost exactly four years ago—the Institute's third survey on Roosevelt and Landon showed the following division: Rome- IA vest don Aug 280986 - state-by-sta- Pet Popular vote Electoral votes No agitates Pet 525 475 274 29 257 19 4 In its presidential surveys from now until election day the Institute will use more than 1100 regional interviewers as well as special investigators in the crucial states Supporting the In- stitute's research and serving as a further guarantee of imwill be more partial than 125 leading United States newspapers of all shades of political belief fact-findi- ' Trip Arduous In Motorized Wheel Chair - PITTS1HilIGH (UP)—Frank of Los Angeles has conquered the Allegheny mountains of Pennsylvania in a wheel chair The Californitn who was stricken with spinal meningitis 15 years ago crossed the mountains in a motorized wheel chair which he made himself Rather than follow a life of Inactivity Harper decided to make his "rig" when a friend of his gave him "some junk"— the frame of an old bike and several motorcycle wheels and sprockets To his wheel chair he added a motorcycle transmission with three speeds and a motor Then he set out to see the country Last year he covered 30000 miles in the chair which has a top speed of 30 miles an hour on the level and which gets 50 miles to the gallon of gasoline Harper i t 1 14 i On k Boat Radio Directed 1 ' Mass (UP)— Herbert Grant photographer boat which has built a he controls by radio from shore A single spark plug mos tor runs eight hours on a cup tut of gasoline and has poller enough to tow a rowboat three persona CARLISLE 44-fo- ot i ton-tattli- 'It ''"!'''' - Pacific defense In any case Oahu with its mighty Pearl harbor continues to be the backbone of that de- PARKERSBURG Aug 24 (UP)—A retired guarterrngster sergeant of the army believes that in developing a drifting aerial bomb he has hit upon what may become the greatest Offensive weapon in al W 1 4 ' Adolphus Andrews it is generally expected will remain In Hawaiian waters for the duration of the European war and for the the duration of the present state of uncertainty in the Orient Some naval officials believe that essentially Singapore is the western ontpost of U S defense Others more conservative believe that Guam will become the of most Important spear-hea- d Drifting Bomb Seen a Strong Weapon cross-secti- appear to be New York Pennsylvania and a handful of other eastern states where Mk Winkle is leading by alight mar- gins atthe present time If the G P candidate can hold or increase his lead in these areas with their rich allotments of electoral votes he will probably enter the final stages of the race in a good position If President Roosevelt can detach even one of these populous states however the electoral balance would ' swing to the Democrats Position Vulnerable A 1 1 has serving projected the arm of the navy at Pearl harbor a full 2000 miles This detachment under the command of Rear Admiral pletely reflected in the insti- tute's current study however These developments are (1) Mr Wilikie's acceptance speech at Elwood Ind which Republl- cans are counting on to boost G O P strength and (2) the latest phases of Adolph Hitler's aerial blitzkrieg against Brit- am which some observers have expected might cause addition- voters to favor a third term for Roosevelt The greater part of the interviewing in the pres- ent survey was completed be- fore the possible political et- fects of these widely differing events had time to sink in It must also be emphasized that there is always a margin of error involved in every sam- piing operation—no matter howbecause carefully conducted of the size of the sample it- self In the present survey the statistical probabilities are 95 in 100 that the average error per state due to the size of will not exceed plus or minus 4 per cent Interpretation of the results of the sur- vey therefore must take into account the number of states where the Roosevelt-Willk- ie percentages are within the area between 54 and 48 per cent ' Roosevelt Still Leads : 9 In Popular Vote On the evidence of the institute survey however an election held today would probably result in the closest race since election of the Wilson-Hugh1916 While Willkie has a slight eleclead in the toral vote column President Roosevelt—partly because of his 'tremendous pluralities in the south—continues to have a tiny majority of the popular vote There has been no change in this respect since the August 4 survey The institute's question put to a carefully selected of the voters in d 2 41 I states - States Leaning Republican-2- 0 August 25 ' e Score I I e Political Box 'II I d - 4 i X ( mONT I 71 '' 1 I 1111111111111:"' 111111111111111111111111111111 1 By Dr George Gallup Director American Institute of Public Opinion PRINCETON N J Aug 24—As the presidential race enters its sixth week a new survey by the American Institute of Public Opinion—conducted during the first three weeks of August—shows the two great parties continuing to run neck and neck Wendell Willkie is still leading President Roosevelt by a small margin in electoral votes returns from the 48 states indicate but the president has gained slightly since the Institute's Roosevelt-Willitifirst nation-widsurvey reported August 4 Four states which stood in Mr Willkie's column at the be- ginning of the campaign—Ore- gun Idaho Wyoming and Connecticut—are now leaning to Mr Roosevelt by narrow margins the survey shows Never- Today's Survey theless Mr Willkie is ahead MR of the president in' 20 states Electoral votes 247 e 284 with a combined vote in the 49 51 Popular vote electoral collage of 284 or 18 28 24 No of states more than the 266 which are August 4 Survey President required to win FUR Winkle Roosevelt leading in 28 states 804 Electoral votes 227 has 247 electoral votes 51 49 Popular vote Returns from Utah show 24 24 No of states Roosevelt leading at the pres- ant time by a percentage of 57 - - d- Indo-Chin- ' :::::!: '::'''''':::1::::::::::':::::''i:t1:::::: hard-press- - '' - - or " -- ' ::L ::' Ai :i:':i:::'' :' - " -" :''''':-- ":- - a t) 4" Ell ELT::: 247 1:!':!:::'J:::: si::""::::: ': :::: 8 - iv :::::::::::::7 204 :':''''::''': - :" i :A ': ::y-As- f:::: 1::1 ):-1: !' :::--- :" : ':''':': ' ::- li"tsb44! 4 !'::4:::! 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'!' ! - Roosevelt Picki-U-p States but Winkle Crains in Large States — ?:1:1'7:4 ':s'i: 811ilitt tle i::::::: 7'::' A '16 '1'11P :!:::-:::::- )c : -- -- i ' - ib :' — ' y - - t 4::::::: :Si: ' :: -- -- - ' :0:::::i: ' - :::':::'"::'::'':1i::::':'::::'':-:-':::::1:'fs::1'- " - 1- c ' " 1' - -- k ' ' - 4--7 :7 T ' - 'j:-'- - :1'- '' j' :'': - 1 '7 ''i:' f' — 0 Mk Fate of China War Hhiges 0 n Red Route - — - 4 - By Director American Institute of Public Opinion i PRINCETON N J Aug 24 — One of the measures the Roosevelt administration may point to with pride In the coming campaign It appears will be the N Y A—the national youth administyation Most of the heavy firing in the campaign will tinter about other issues to be sure—foreign polity the spendint program I and the third 11I'l study by the American Institute of Public Opinion indicates that the youth administraP' tion has the approval of more than eight persons In every nine Who are familiar with It LI In its five years of operation th'e N Y A's chief function has t t' been to provide part-tim- e jobs os for some of the high school and c tA students who would College e otherwise have been unable to continue classes and would con- ' e sequently have been turned into 1 SHANGHAI (UP) — Soviet an already overflowing labor Russia's "price" for effective maMarket terial aid to Chungking's 0 Even among those not famit!7e government iteone of lar With the N Y A itself the ominous questions troumost the Institute survey snows sentithinese politital observers bling metit is more than four to one for The Chinese are Increasingly a program similar to N Y As frank in admitting that their projects which sole hope for decisive outside provide employment for boys and Assistance against the Japanese girls and Young men and women who have finished school bk are Is Russia Without jobs American preoccupation with plus Britain's capitulaEurope one in person Approximately tion to Japanese demands on three the survey found gave tiong Kong Tientsin and Burma definite indication of his fa and the collapse of France leaves These tnillaritY with N Y A as the only source of det persons were asked: "Do you Russia cisive outside aid and in a posi- think the N Y A should be contion to cut off any other outside y tinued as a regular department aid which the United States or of the government?'" Their anGreat Britain might attempt to swers were: send China over the sole reit Should be continued as regmaining communications route 82 ular part with the outside world—Russia's )0 Should not be continued t red route :s No opinion or undecided 8 U S Curb Welcomed re Whethet or not to continue the Although the American "emN Y A has been a question that n- bargo" was welcomed Chinese has come before congress every ti- circles generally recognized that year since the program was first this would not have any immedith launched back in 1935 This decisive effect on the progate n- -year congress extended N Y A's ress of the war and would not at life until July 1941 and apoffset the disadvantages China is propriated about $95000000 for suffering as a result of the closhe its support In a typical month ure of the route through French last year the youth Indo-Chiand Burma nt ii11 reported 314310 young peowas out that whereIt pointed nd pie receiving aid In the high as Japan has been able to chalhe school program 120000 in colon lenge Britain and France in deleges and universities and 312000 ht manding the closure of Indo-ChiIn out of school projects making and Burma and was able lel" a total of 746310 to American protest ignore ht Civilian Like the Conservation art against closure of these routes Corps the National Youth Ad thus far Japan obviously has not in ministration has apparently won been anxious to challenge Russia der an accepted place In the meand is at present in no position dia chinery of government the surto cut the red route ght vey indicates Institute surveys all Despite leari in some Chinese have also shown that approxi- era circles regarding Russia's terms Irately four voters in every Jive him for effective aid there is every C C C should be made the think r!le Indication that Chungking is prepermanent ght paring increased imports of vital Further evidence of the way supplies via the red route Hunto has in come the public general ind dreds of American built trucks as support special government the ! which formerly transported supis siStance to unemployed youth a of and from plies shown by the results of the fol- tish Burma are being rushed to the lowing question: r north where they will reinforce "Would you favor a speciai the limited fleet 4)f Russian nay for trucks and large camel caragovernment program to provide ea- part-tim- e work and training for vans which are carrying the : young people who have left ac' present Russian supply shipY loll school and are not able to find ments to China work?" any" Red Route Reinforced Vett China is also reinforcing miliNa 11 No opinion or undecided tary positions east of the red route in an effort to safeguard Support for such a government this lifeline against Japanese at) program comes frord every sectacks designed to cut the last tion of the country and all in Chinese supply route come levelsthe survey indicates: On the diplomatic front China t' 1910 is doing its utmost to develop In V 'IP 'IV is a creasingly close relations with Russia without accepting Russia's political demands beyond toleration of the formerly outrelawed Communist party 1 verKew England I‘ Third power diplomats pointed 88 mer 11 8 I out that 'on one hand Russia is orth FP 84 10 8 not able completely to cut off al- 78 18 0 ft supplies for China because Russ as 82 8 10 South sia does not want China to fall 82 14 4 West permanently under Japanese 1940 uni Copyright control and realizes that China !un Is fighting Russia's war as well lace Heat Creates Ice Thief is her own ten However on the other hand it Hel S C (11P)- -COLUMBIA was pointed out that Russia "meanest thief" has able to regulate aid to China to ane appeared As the temperature a point where it enables the Chiand to the went up nese to continue resisting Japan onth mark someone slipped in Amy but only at cost of great sacriOir Sims' house and stole all the fices to China and without hopes fuer ice from the refrigerator of decisive early victory tent- Most third power diplomats row fear---thbelieve—and Russia PigS- Sun Hard Boils Eggs the have will upper hand irCthe f1yht BOAZ Ala (UP)—Alabama's forthcoming Chinese negotiations pur- for Russian aid This belief is recent heat Wave had other a hi based on the fact that ChungMrs than human casualties the Z L Clayton reported that thent king's main weapon in resisting Russian political pressure is a told: eggs she gathered from a bird's threat to make peace with rest had been "hard-boile0000 by Japan dth: i the sun 'i114:L:4ds:r::R66se:e1ti7:284'''in':247- - : ng '' - ' ' " ' v !Nu 1it---!At-—A- t:Ak — s ' - v |