| Show M Sunday Morning- - -- tTljc Salt £akc tribune- - -- August 4 1940 D 7 and Roosevelt Almost Evenly Matched Independents Hold Willld I r - - - Fall Elec tianL Balance of Power — By director American Institute of Public Opinion PRINCETON N J Aug 3 — As the American people enter anither presidential campaign a nation-wid- e test by the American Institute of Public Opinion indicates that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans possess sufficient ‘Teg- -' ular” party members at this time to capture the presidency J Whichever party wins the elec tion next November probably will owe its victory to the Roosevelt-PRINCETON N J Aug 3— The first Opinion-condu- cted of Public Institute American of the survey In the fortnight since the Democratic convention at at Chicago— shows the two great parties almost evenly matched the beginning of the campaign Wendell L Wlilkie who was nominated by the Republican over President Roose-ve- lt party on June 20 has taken a slight lead in Institute' figures at the present time returns from the 48 states show If the election were today the indications from this firstT survey are that Willkie would carry 24 of the 48 states— a total virtually all of them lying north of the Ohio river—with of 304 of the 531 votes in the electoral college' or 38 more than the 266 electoral votes which are necessary to win But while Willkie is leading in electoral votes today President Roosevelt still holds a narrow majority of the popular vote Such a paradoxical situation is possible in the Institute survey of course because of' the tremendous pluralities rolled up for — president Roosevelt in many southern states— far more than1 is necessary to asjure him their electoral votes Returns from Utah show Roosevelt leading by a percentage state-by-sta- te J By Devon Francis Associated Press Aviation Editor Willkie iJjl ITS of 56 to —— 44 -- SANTA MONICA” Cal - -- on m ic T The Renuhlican party with Wendell Willkie and Senator McNary is in the lead today In 4 states as compared with the carried In 1S6 Republican gains have two states the ranged from 1 percentage point in South Carolina— most Democratic state inithe Jlnlon— to SS points In Oregon home state of President Roosevelt received MJfc Senator McNary Returns per cent of the majority nartv vote In the IPS electioncent— of a from the Institute survey give the president only 51 per decline of 1 X'A points 2 PlotteH on a map of the United States Republican territory now extends in a virtually solid band from New England to the Pacific northwest Despite the nomination of Secretary of Wallace of Iowa as the Democratic candidate for vice president the Institute survev shows the G O P leading in every one of the middle western farm states except Missouri 3 Nevertheless President Roosevelt is still well out in front In the entire “solid South" and this despite the reported disaffection of some southern Democrats over the third term Wendell Willkie has announced that he will campaign in the tradi- tionallv Democratic south in an effort to win one of more states states average hut in the Institute survey thus far the 13 southern ' I 72 to 28 for Roosevelt I 4 And finally the Renuhlican lead in several states— notablv I Wisconsin Minnesota North Dakota Wyoming Connecticut and Rhode Island— is so slim that a shift of sltehtlv more than 1 per ? In these states would tip a majority of electoral votes to the j cent new deal states Leaning Democratic —24 OOP Landon Also Led F D R Early As Wendell Willkie prepares for his Electoral votes 8“ South’ Carolina ' r rf Roosevdlt 798 Points of change in JDemvote Willkie since 2 ’36 -- 1 - -- dive-bombi- ng ' 227 te Electoral Votes Note by Dr Gallup: The reader should remember error is involved in every sampling margin-o- f operation due to the size of the sample itself In the present survey the statistical probabilities are approxi- that some by-sta- te mately 95 In 100 that the average error per state resulting from the size of the sample will not exceed 4 one mid-Anr- cross-sectlon- (UP)-- On NEW ORLEANS her lOtfth birthday Miss' Elizabeth' Tottenham took time out to praise living alone "I go to sleep when 1 want to and get up when I want to” "I cook Miss Tottenham said what I eat and eat as much’ as I want to" But Miss Tottenham advanced her own rules for jtoungsters and ' oldsters alike: “Cook sew and do your own housework but don't gamble —: amoke or drink" Miss Tottenham' emigrated from Ireland with her parents” In 1848 The sailing voyage re- quired nine weeks well-to-d- 'U Another in li' t t: Thin Bread Once-- Plebeian More Apprentices 7 SACRAMENTO Cal (UP)— Apprenticeship is coming back Into its own of former days During oh month the number of apprenticeship agreements sanctioned by the California Apprenticeship council Increased from 1100 to 3000 San Diego set up the first program in the United States for meat cutting apprenticeships ST JOSEPH Mo (UP)— A ruthless campaign against gargling at the table was conducted 90 years ago by the “Ladiea and Gentlemen’s Manual of Elegance Fashion and True Politeness" The old handbook of etiquette a copy of which has been presented to the public library here contained this stern admonition: "Do not practice the custom of gargling your mouth "at table albeit the usage prevails among a few who thihk that because' it I? a foreign habit it it The English publication deemed the English the ‘world’s politest pepple the French "fairly polite Speaking of those of the new world the manual said: “There is simply no hope my dears for hose savage Ameri-- " cans" Here are some of the manual’ rule by which polite English society was governed: "Do not pick your teeth much at the table as however a satisfactory practice it may be it ia not pleasant to witness” "Servants should wear white-glov- es and keep their thumbs out of the plate The thumb should be wrapped in a damask napkin" "Ladies shouldn't eat corn on the cob because the exhibition rubs off the romance" dive-bombi- Electoral Votes Old 'Etiquette’ Book Says 1 (cross-sectio- S spot-weldi- Institute surveys conducted Immediately after the party conventions In 19S8 showed tha tendon took ah early lead over Roosevelt (In electoral votes) in the first month of the campaign only to fall behind In Rentember The first Institute survey in that campaign nublished Julv It 1986 found Landon ahead In tl atatea with a total of 87? electoral votes The state-- f picture was much the same as It Is today Further reports at regular intervals bv the American Institute I - of Publio Opinion will chart the trend of the present campaign and I indicate where the greatest "dancer spots” are for both parties I in which age and Income grouns the candidates have their great est support and how the public reacts to the issues raised during A the campaign t — it must be emphasized that the course of Polltlcal"sentiment In the next few months may be stronplv Influenced by events abroad In the past President Roosevelt’s popularity ha' risen with the intensifying of Europe’s crises This was' dramatically 5 revealed this aorlng when Democratic partv strength rose from ll and mld-jun- e while i 54 pgr cent to 58 per cent between I Adolf Hitler was carrying the blitzkrieg into Holland Belgium and The' current gains of the Republicans coincide with a I France I relative slackening of the European conflict as well as with the nomination of Willkie I The reader should bear In mind furthermore that some mar-- I gin of error is involved in every sampling operation no matter t how carefully conducted due to the size of the sample Itself In ?the present survey the statistical probabilities are approximately 1 95 In 100 that the average error per state resulting from the size’" — : of the sample will not exceed 4 per cent i Actually-iII state national and local' election surveys In which the Institute Jjas made forecasts since 1936 the error from ' all causes n error as well as error due to the size of sample) has averaged only 31 per cent ' i How Surveys Are Conducted ' ' j In a of scientific t far publio depends survey opinion Accuracy lies on the number of persons interviewed than on the repre-- f sentative character of the pon who is interviewed in other wor 3s Voter In eaclr of the principal political social and economic groups must be reached in proportion to their numbers s in the This means that correct ' voting population In each state 'proportions must be maintained for farmers city voters and smail-tow- n o voters for the and those in other income groups dovn to and including persons on relief and W P A for those who voted for Roosevelt Landon and others In 1936 and for young people who have come of voting age Jn the last four years r The Institute will tise more than 1100 regional Interviewers ns well as special Investigators ip the crucial states to record sentiment exactly as given by thg voters Supporting the Institute’s xesearch-an- d serving as a further guarantee of Impartiality— X are more than 125 prominent American daily newspapers of all I shades of editorial policy and reaching from Maine to Honolulu which are prepared to publish the facta about American public ijoplpion' regardless of their own predilections fbr one candidate or -- the-fac- air-driv- Indr later this month the big state-hv-st-- States Leaning Republican— 24 Japan Curtails in8 s' accents nee speech at ouestion facint the Republicans is whether they can hold their first-la- p advantage over the Democrats or whether President Roosevelt and Henry Wallace will cut into their narrow lead i Fifty thousand airplanes will mean the addition of at least 400000 men to the shop personnel of the aircraft factories It will mean the addition of other tens of thousands to the pay rolls of related Industries which sup- ply machine tools and materials ct - Alrplanesremaln a hand-mad- e —vlndependents:voted-foF-Roose-produn I"36 How they will de expensive and slow in clde to vote this falLls a quesmanufacture largely because of tion of the greatest the metal which goes Into them importance to both major That metal is an aluminum alparties On the basis of a loy Pound for pound It Is the voting popu-latlof 60000000 the survey’ best construction metal for points to a bloc of Independent planes which - engineer- s- have voters throughout the United found since the Wright brothers States numbering 12000000 first flew In 1903 moreover Sectlonally the Against stainless steel ahlmi-nuJargest number of them are disis not only much less extributed throughout the crucial pensive but it it also stronger states of the eaat and middle Stainless steel wings with which west this industry has experimented Independent voters play the smallest part the survey must be reinforced inside with In the 13 states of the shows a corrugated "backing” to make Democratic south them take the abuse to which v i aluminum Is subjected Percentage regarding selves as A piece of aluminum Interior Independents: wing structure in almost con New England 30percent stant flight for six years was 21 per cent removed the other day from an East Central 23 per cent airliner and purposely was bent West central 21 per cent until it broke It showed practiSuth 10 par cent same the cally strength as the 21 per cent " had been it installed in the ’day Of equal Importance from the plane Points of point of view of party strategy Is Here at the plant of the Douglas Aircraft company one of the that more than 6000000 change In of these independent yoters-i- or Electoral pern vote largest In the United States 18 -p about half of them— are to be 000 persons are fabricating both 'Winkle since ’36 Roosevelt votes'"'" found today in the income group 5 Maine 65 35 warplanes and commercial transwhich earns between $20 and $40 ports with that slow meticulous a week Every Institute measureworkmanship which is typical of ment in- the last four years has the industry indicated ihat this Is the income Night and day three shifts group which may do most to dearpund the clock men fashion ‘ cide the next election winged monsters which tomorrow in some instances will be ” t in Eu-- ‘ flying destruction-ben- t rope Under 17 acres of roof riveting hammers in concert sound like a clapboard house being torn apart bodily Almost every rivet in these planes— some types contain as SAN (UP)-W- lth FRANCISCO many as 300000 — must be inoil one of the primary serted Individually and tapped cessltles" for Japanese military down with hammers and naval action nothing in JaTwo men are assigned tor each hammer Some pan’s recent purchases from is California oil fields Indicates any being done but none- of it as yet is tried oh part uilt to Intention of further expansionist ventures withstand such stresses as are set up in the "pull-puts- " Japan’s purchases from Caliof ’ fornia oil fields have fallen off si e the first of the year The punishment meted out to At the time Japan began heavy pur- - ' planes In such Maneuvers Is inchases of oil In California two dicated by the fact that years ago for military and naval pilot "black out”— lose 304 needs" its objective was to build consciousness— when they level Up and maintain a six months off at the conclusion of their per cent Actually in 11 election predictions made by supply- - according to oil expert dive The blackout of course is here the Institute since 1936 the error from all causes (cross-sectio- n momentary but the strain that error as well as error due to size of sample) causes it is capable of pulling AlthoughJapah has guarded as a close military ecret the has averaged only 31 per cent In interpreting the the wings off the plane amount of oil reserve the fact Z Actual construction i$ only above percentages for’ any particular state these limiall purchases are mad tations should be borne in mind part of the tedious process of virtually from California fields where acmanufacture 20 plane Usually curate statistics are kept makes months are required from the It easy for the oil industry her conception of an idea for a new to check closely on the situaplane and the actual production —tion ’of the test plane Then additional ' It Is argued that if Japan conweeks are required for testing templated any more extensive Airplanes develop strange moves in the far east it would sudden ailments and the quirks Jay In far larger stocks and also whole design must be returned guard against the possibility of to the engineers for study "If there are no napkins embargo by the United States At one southern California around a man has no alternat California oil statistics show plant it was discovered after 40 tive but to use tbe tablecloth” that throughout 1939 when Jaof a had planes “Never cut bread less than an rolled given LANSING Mich (UP)— Traftype pan was maintaining the objecoff the line a and that all of inch assembly half thick Thin bread fic and safety engineers are betive of keeping a six months' them were on the right is plebeian” "heavy” oil reserve on hand purchases ginning to question the value of wing They maneuvered badlyfor every month with the exThe engineers investigating displacing too much emphasis upon Sioux Indians Enlist —— hand'signals by automobile drivcovered a guide rivet hole in a" ception of January totaled more than 2000000 barrels running as "Jig" a steel framework in which ers J Willard Lord safety engihigh as 2900000 barrels In April JJeconie Good Soldiers are was built airplanes quarter and 2513000 barrels in'Novem-be- r neer told ' the Michigan StateJnch-out-linei-Th- r of mistake These were the peak fig- CHEYENNE wide Safety Conference Wyo (UP)— A required the reconstruction of 40 ures bronzed wing panel recruit A motorist should signal for a While In January of 1940 JaAnother quirk 'which afflict named E Louis Flood or Leo d or right-han- d pan still purchased 2415000 barturn as is a shift In the center airplane rels since then there has been a matter of courtesy Lord said - of High Wolf makes just as good a gravity At the Douglas plant’! a steady decline ' In May and but not to absolve himself of soldier as a raw newcomer with big final assembly hangar three March the figures were slightly a more common name of John blame for an accident Safety scales graded to the fineness of more than 1800000 barrels but -- Jones or authorities would do well he conHarry Smith Fort Warpm Apothecary’s are unk into for the other months of this year ren officials report ’ tended to place more emphasia the concrete flooringpurchases have been slightly on "position on the road” In makIn the last six months more Evwy plane leaving the facmore barrels than 1400000 than 20 Sioux Indians have been is weighed landing gear to ing turns and less on signals tory monthly added tq the rosters of Fort WarLord gave three reasons-fo- r tail wheel to determine its net Japan itself Pacific coast auren’s three regiments— theFirst beieving hand signal possibly tonnage And weight distribution thorities say has never been able and Twentieth infantries and the are detrimental to the cause of Weight distribution is so imto produce more than 10 per field artillery Seventy-iixt- h leafety: owners portant that imall-plan- e cent of its domestic needs and soldiers 1 The Tiand signal often Is ‘They make excellent constantly ’are warned by Insurwith the bulk of the purchases no matter whether we put them used as an alibi by drivers inance companies to clean the acbeing made in California they’ in tha band medical detachment A volved In accidents cumulated dust from the rear of feel Tokyo is not contemplating 2 The use of the hand signal quartermaster department or the their fuselages A few extra any seriously increased expantenda to deemphasize the imporheadquarterl brigade" officials pounds there will cause a fatal sionist move i said tance of maneuvering a car to a Pin They ' likewise admit that an Among the Sioux recruited reBoth a business and an art American embargo on oil would position of the road where It can be turned safely cently were those with such be the United States’ best weapairplane manufacture ha develhames as E Louis Flodd Len 3 The hand signal detracts 7? 4 on' for curbing any ambitions oped Its own specialists fhe driver attention esoeclally Hith Wolf Sam Harry Bird MelA housewife couldn’t be any that mhhtr' be regarded as vin Red Cloud and Seymour when he has to lower a window more careful with a cake ready inimical to American interest in Twlss ' or set a directional signal1 for the oven the far east (4-p- Not a Prediction of November Election Where the two candidates will stand next November-- or even a month from now — depends on a multitude of factors It is still three months' until election day and the country has yet to hear Much may depend on the pros and cons of campaign argument the course of events abroad And finally the survey shows that beabout qhe voter in eleht (13$) has made no definite choice ' tween Roosevelt and Willkie as yet Four salient facts aboiit United States political sentiment as of today are indicated by the survey however: In ‘S cross-secti- millions" Willkie I I At the present time the latest Institute survey shows one voter in every five considers himself free of regular party allegiance Votera In a of the 48 states were asked: “In politics do you consider' yourself a Democrat Republican Socialist or independent?’'- Democrat 41 per cent Republican 38 per cent 20 per cent Independent Socialist or other 1 per cent Only one voter In every 25 er cent) failed to list himself In one of the above categories A previous institute tests have shown the great majority of h9e 'ho consider themselves years the airplane ijlll is a hand-mad- e product One statistician has figured that it will require 4the worfc of close to 600000 persons to turn out the 50000 planes a year President Roosevelt has asked That many persons in the automotive Industry can turn out trucks and passenger cars by the two-part- Zi campaign- Aug 37 The Institute’s question— put to a carefully selected cross- section of the voters In each of the 48 states— asked: “If the presidential election were being held today' would you vote for the candiRepublican- - candidate Wendell Willkie or the Democratic definite with of those The Roosevelt?” replies date Franklin division Tn the popuy choices at the present time show a lar vote throughout the United States as follows: I "independent vote” the survey reveals Both Roosevelt and Willkie: have Indicated that they will appeal to the independents and since the slzeof this group shifts 7r6rinTmFToTTffi?rtFie Amertcmt institute will measure sentiment on the question throughout the Driver Signals Held Doubtful - - -- left-han- - |
