Show I SALT THE TRIBUNE SUNDAy MORNINGJANVARY 9:1938 LAKE - ' - 11 f di S - 4- 'r ' r A t ' s i 114 '‘‘ ' ''::-- t 13 I 11 ''''- '' ' " g 1 1-- I Ct )4114 rr s101441"'ke 10'10010( 4glal-7-‘44- Aa ' 1104P tt ff7N ) a -- - - - -- - HAT ' you be doing one from today—or one year —or five years? What will the world be lace 10 or 50 years from now? Will it be a peace- ful world or full of wars and revolutions? - — will respects wasn't comprehensive considered scientifically exact month likto "Are married people or Astrologers and palmists will be grad to tell you—so will the "scientific" forecasters the financial political and economic experts But even the experts often go wrong in their prophecies Sometimes they hit the truth—and - sometimes they don't Recently Dr Pitirim A Sorokin professor of sociology at Harvard University and presi- dent of the International Congress of Sociology made a study of predictions and the ac- curacy Dn sawn himself offers some startling prophecies on the chances of war and revolt' tion in America and the future fate of Amen- can democracy—Prophecies based not only on research but On exciting firsthand experience in a turbulent land- He was one of the leaders of the Russian Revolution Under the Bolshevik regime he three tunes narrowly escaped execution He finally was banished and came to America " 1923 His study of predktions in r Z ' 7 1-1- 1- per - - -- - -- found that in predicting one the average deviation was day 1vik - day—thaLlsduringaboutve-bours-out------Arnerici-will-bei- ik the time was not spent as the in- dividual predicted fs For two days ahead the deviation wesk! greater 35368 minutes per day or about iist hours out of the 24 For a monthahead the deviation was 49481 minutes or about eight hours In other words only 16 hours out of ate 24 were spent according to prediction— end those 16 hours included all the time spent irt sleeping "Consider too" said Dr Sorokin 'that these people knew their schedules were being checked to many of themt tried to live up to Otherwise the schedules as much as possible the deviation would have been still greater" on people's predicting habits - fights Dr Soroldn declares that his survey although in those ' '‘ ' Le '' ':''‘''' !':y2T'' ' ' 4 ' ‘'' - - yf - -- -- '111u ' f ' (-1'i-441- ' ? ltjj )1 ' ': ' - 1- : Everyone knew autos would mean quicker transportation one foresaw auto petting parties ' ipojt — 0' 4 40 - 'tI ' ' o— 00' --- V air "Several years ago I made a - 0 - ” Many people believe that in spite of the present unrest wars —art fewer and less Violent today -- than in the bloody Middle Ages and that eventually they will -But his- disappear allogether torytantradicts this - - -- 41 study of the wars occurring since 600 B C including all the wars of Greece and Rome ind those ‘ t - r 4' 7- viii-d- ' -- - upopm"- of eight European - how accurately can we Poretell what s I coun- - I compared those 25 cen-ies in tur the length or their wars -" mina the size of the armies and the more number of casualties compared to the population of the countries -- -And I found this taking part to be the amazing result: from 1900 to 1925 was the e bloodiest quarter-centur- y we have had since600 B !Since 1925e of course we have had still tries Clear days can be planned 22 per cent accurately than rainy days instance but no f 0- ' ti human additional 'if' v '' - publics as well as monarchies 7 ' it loneliness n a popular notion that a country which -"We know there will prOtably be more keeps many slaves is ripe for revolution par- suicides among the unmarriedthan among the licularly if the slaves are hungry and oppressed by tyrannies But this is not necessarily true—married—this has happened in the past Also there will probably continue to be more sui There will be no revolution as long as the cides among the divorced than the married slaves are convinced it is their duty to obey their misters and the masters are cluite sure it among the childless than those with children "In times of tremendous upheaval such as is their right to own slaves All these strong convictions of right and wrong privileges and great social - reformations revolutions duties form an invisible network of Social (when it is accepted by the people) the suicide rate will probably drop sharply In revolts relationships and cultural values—a network which keeps that society stable tionary times people emerge from tgeir shell- sthey come out into the streets and fraternize There is little chance to be lonely 611st UT when the network is softened and together J—P when people have no "During depressions the suicide rate ivill disintegrated -i-ncrease-Most strong convictions of right crease to money losses but this is true only when you see possibilities of revolution! Then or-w- ar people-attribute-th- : - - years om now of multi try even in a iociely composed chiefly some idea of what the trena millionaires of events may be" concedes Dr Sorokin "But "Today in America we're not sure of any our predictions must contain plenty of if's We on anything thing and must say cautiously 71 prosperity returned and more bloodshed—the rty the—Xommunist-says-prop-eis theft----he Cap' invasions of China and the terrible conflict if it stays then the number of people on re- italist 'says property is sacred us are lief will decrease' in Spain I see no ithmediate Consequently unsure about moral standard cultural stand- "We can't be too positive because 'nations eras- - or economic principles" prospect of swords being beaten into electric as well as individuals are influenced by an But just when wars toasters and radio sets Dr Sorokin also snake-- 6 this prophecy: "The enormous number of unforeseen factors such will take place and where and under what present trend in the United States toward gov- as accidents weather and the emergence of circumstance no one can be sure emmental control and regimentationwhether strong individuals like Mohammed and Hitler "History also suggests that a revolution in we like it or not will probably continue for -- "Studying history however will give us im- the United States is not unlikely -some time dews find the future We to can "I have studied 1640 different revolutions out portant trend In every country "It's a world-wid- e the trend of events in the past under certain which have occurred in the world since 600 democracies as well as dictatorship the power conditions Then we know what ma to ppersILC-The-l- ey I L as ieen s ea y mcreas- lieve as not found in under similar conditions form of Our of of course is any regimentation particulir ing type sFor instance let's-- consider - what history much diluted We might shy the lelew Deal government - Revolution- have taken place in - brand-- of teaches us abourthe Present-datrend in war derpocracies as well as autocracies and in re- dictatorship is one finger of whisky A pen" We can get e al Moira - e- - N!21''cA 1 14ele - m - '' - cause-of-revoluti-un y of the bonds which tie him to other men are Old friends disappear "However in the social or cultural fields predktion-- eking is a risky business- and very- largely guesswork "But I folr one am glad we can't foretell accurately everything that is going to happen to-u-s-If men knew thctragedies ahead of them—disappointments painful illnesses—life could be very unhappy As it is no matter how badly off we are we can think 'Surely things will get better soon' It is human nature to hope and as long as there is uncertainty we are justified in hoping "Furthermore there is rfascination in f we certamty—an excitement an suspense 'knew what each hour had in store for us Msgr: would be as dull as a mystery 'story wo'g : 'already read" suddenly-cut CI - s we collect more and more data oft behavior w' e can venture to make For instance we can predictions give generalizations about the suicide rate—all because we have definite figures to prove that the greatest cause of suicide is not ill health or poverty or an unhappy love affair but 66 A v : 1111110 - I penings ! :':'I''‘' ' -- ow ' ' ‘:'': 'A:)A' a A ' 71 ti ' AI 'Y''''0 '''' :''!''' 1 - five-ye- ar ''M 0 tp no Adolf Hitler in Germany another dicta tor would have arisen "Along with this regimentation theta is atrend toward 'planned government' In Russia it is called the plan—in America we tried the NRA the AAA and the like But we can safely prophesy this—rigidly planned egovernment will not work "Why? Because no matter how carefully we plan our calculations will be upset by aro cidents weather and other unpredictablelapd )'' "II tiir ' ' ''''' r1 r 0 ) I ' ' An' 4 4kW'WJMIPEa with the rest of the glass ginger ale while the Communist brand is almost pure vodka "If Roosevelt had not run- - for the presi dency I believe that sooner or later them 'would have been another president with his ideas of governmental control- If there had been - ot4 h '13k "'O4H'':‘u 4s'':'' '::7V ''‘'':'''2 1 - - I ' '' -- - : As-forlong-r- ange AW Or' -' w for large groups of people best clew to what's ahead V‘' :: ' ''' ahead -minutes of the 24 - '- :ii '4' '"'' U'" 0!:4:!:- g' '' and professional melt He ?dld them "I want you to make a —' schedule outlining how you expect to spend each minute of your day tomorrow Make other schedules for the day after tomorrow one week front-ro-day and one month- from today E x- actly when do you expect to be sleeping eat-mg your meals visiting working? "Then later check this minute - for minute with the way you actually spent the time" Most of his 150 subjects kept their schedules In three months he had a record faithfully of their activities for more than 200000 hours - -- TI-- E- --' :l$4k774R i:''''' '''"'' "''''''''':':''0'::‘ 0 ' '' (':v'AM nations?" - from-no- en-years Ipredictions - ::::::eii V :‘':'o the actions of large groups of people such as I Future -t- Rainstorms were not the only unexpected which upset predictions One man had an automobile accident during the three months Several others became sick or lost their jobs or were involved in strikes Life they found was forever being complicated by weather health the actions of other people and any number of other unpredictable things- Dr Soroldn's second problem concerned predictions for large group of people For First "How accurately can we predict Our own actions one day or one month ahead?" Second "How accurately can we predict - more happenings is divided into two solve the first problin- he enrolled-15- 0 men and women as assistants They included students and artists clerks and stenographers housewives and professors business executives Single' ones t4or be to A scienthes experiments show that' man is unable to predict accuratelywhat he will be doing tomorrow let alone five or clays parts: To enough accurate in predicting what they will be doing from day to day?" Married personsthe study showectwele 26 per cent more accurate than single persons in their predictions "Which are the better predictors—men or women?" The men were 48 per cent more accurate in predicting one &y ahead "Which can be planned more accurately— clear days or rainy ones?" Clear days can be plane 22 per cent more exactly than rainy 1 k—no-ii-- ooind :i0cdpOlcit):40::-For0"001- L By Mary June Burton - - W S Iron l1 p ' " ' ' - - |