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Show THE ZEPHYR! DECEMBER 2008-JANUARY 2009 Growth”, but most environmentalists still won’t publicly admit that global warming has lays out what is us licked. Case in point: Joseph Romms political advocacy vs. real understanding. It’s hard to criticize him because here’s a scientist who's had the courage to write a strong book as well as lots of great blog posts clearly showing what we're up against. But just like mainstream environmentalists, as soon as he starts talking politics, the message comes out sounding like Sarah Palin cheering for her kid’s hockey team, down 8-0 then later 14-0 in the third period. Just what do progressives But unfortunately for them, the rest of us can think, and the UN's population scenarios are begging to be torn apart in their post-2050 vision. Most importantly, what about capitalism? What about endless growth? How will capital markets function when global populations are steady or declining? l researched these questions and came to this conclusion: if the experts have figured this out, they're keeping quiet about it, because economic theory sure makes the “soft landing” scenario look like nothing more than a’ sales pitch. Of course, as I mentioned above, our fearless optimists might be assuming that the UN will be running the world by 2050, planning our happiness for centuries to come. But remembering Saddam setting - fire to his oil wells in 1991, something tells me the capitalists won't be giving up before inducing Armageddon. , have to show for their continuing submission to the rule of private finance? ah How about a debt that can never be repaid anda planet. that can never be repaired. In Hell and High Water, Romm wrote that it is merely “American conservative leaders” opposing 550 ppm and 8 wedges, and noted that “you may think some [wedges] are implausible, but none of them are technically impossible right now.” In April 2008, he acknowledged the new goal of 450 ppm and 14 wedges, but still maintained that “450 ppm or lower is certainly achievable from an economic and technological perspective”. For Joseph Romm, Al Gore, and most progressives, only politics stands in the way of meaningful action on global warming. How do they figure that? Here’s my guess: the world that environmentalists imagine to be just around the corner is ruled by a single political entity called the “United Nations Global Federation”. (Oops, I see a lot of enviros wincing that I just let the cat out of the bag!) Ah, now we see what keeps the optimists going. In their world, all you have to do is get the science right and soon 6.5 billion humanoids are following in lock-step. But the real world muchachos, is one that guards “economic freedom”, supposed to be our rationale for hope: global population will not increase forever, but will top out in 2050 at about 9 billion, then gently decrease to 8.5 billion over the following century, then gradually increase to 9 billion again by 2300. Just makes you want to jump for joy doesn’t it? What's most striking about the report is the notion that in the first half of the 21st century, we are experiencing the most rapid population growth rates that humanity ever has seen and (supposedly) ever will see. Given the UN’s hoped for fertility declines in the Third World, we are now just four decades away from centuries of social harmony and stability. You've gotta hand it to the optimists: when they dream, they dream big. So I think we complete the job of undermining the optimists just by proving that capitalism can’t long survive stable or declining populations. The forward-looking nature of capital markets is probably all we need to remember here. Investors would have to be convinced that unlimited opportunity exists even when the number of consumers isn’t growing. Could that work? No, because no matter how much capital is leveraged for productivity, workers’ annual income and spending would have to continually accelerate, not just grow. There’s a limit there, and investors would know it first. S i.e., global wealth in the hands of the few, spurring a strategic shootout over dwindling resources to protect private markets, vast urban populations with no choice but to long for the American way of life, and which have not surprisingly flunked their final science exam. How many people really think that a world like that is going to sing “Kum-bay-ya” around the You've gotta hand it to the optimists: when they dream, they dream big. campfire without cataclysmic wars first? Young people, because they Ihave the right to choose a way of life that separates their future from that of the urban masses, need to be told the truth. When are we going to start giving them that choice? The Bursting of the Progressive Population Bubble Not only is hopeless optimism getting in the way of young peoples’ understanding, but it also suppresses social movements away from capitalism. Progressive surrender is needed before the growth monster loses its credibility with the center. Since the Reagan era, when capitalism finally turned back the counter-culture, progressives have been sleeping with the monster rather than refusing to cooperate, as honesty would dictate. If they would just open their eyes and give up, for goodness sake, the real battle can begin. Yeah, it’s a stupid hope, I know. Anybody who wants to debunk the progressive view need look no further than the United Nations and its report titled (get this) “World Population to 2300”. In it, the UN Given the UN's hoped for. auth fertility declines in the Third World, we are now just four decades away from centuries of social harmony and stability. In case you think I’m just pulling your leg, here’s a quote from an opinion piece titled “Incredible shrinking countries” in The Economist, Jan 5 2006, a rather flippant but re- vealing comment about what happens when you have ever fewer people earning and spending money in a capitalist economy: _ “as labour becomes scarcer, and pressure to introduce new technologies to boost workers’ efficiency increases, so the productivity of labour may rise faster. Anyway, retirement ages can be lifted to increase the supply of labour even when the population is declining.” continued on next page... Climate change is real. The science is compelling. And the longer we wait, the harder the problem will be to solve.” canoe company Lc. WE RENT CANOES! 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