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Show Lessons learned from Bush win TRIBUNK MEDIA SERVICE - During every presidential campaign, a lot of assumptions, predictions and statements of alleged fact get made about what's happening ainonK the public 'I hen the election itself comes along, and the American people set everybody st raight This year was no exception. In the weeks leading up to Nov 2, academics and political strategists often opined that social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage, would be secondary concerns Such issues matter most, they concluded, when the; nation is not at war and when the economy is humming That was the conventional wisdom, at least outside parts of the Republican Party No more As the results indicated, those issues proved huge. Social conservatives turned out m big numbers and voted their concerns. In the exit polls, more Americans - 22 percent -ranked moral values as their prime concern than any other matter. And 79 percent of those who did voted for President Bush. lere are some other preelection conclusions that turned out to be incorrect: High turnout would help John Kerry and the Democrats. Turnout was higher than in recent elections, but it helped Bush and the Republicans In Florida and Ohio in particular, turnout surged in regions of Republican strength. This election would be a referendum on the war in Iraq. Not so. Only 15 percent of voters cited the war as the most important issue, which ranked it behind values, the economy and terrorism. They voted overwhelmingly for Kerry But most people didn't. Pollsters' inability to get to users would young 1 e skew polls. In fact, national polls, by and large, were right pre-electi- on the money, suggesting a tight Bush win. And state polls were no less accurate than in the past. A surge of young voters would transform the electorate. As it turned out, more young people did vote, and Kerry won them. But the under-3vote was no bigger a piece of the overall pie in 2004 than in 2000. Bush was going to do much better among African Americans than in 2000. This idea came from a survey by the nonpartisan Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, based in Washington. It showed Bush getting 18 percent of the black vote. Exit polls indicate that Bush did a bit better among blacks than last time, 11 percent compared with 9 percent in 2000, although election returns from heavily African American districts suggest little real change. pre-electi- pre-electi- Youth turnout for election larger than rumored TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICE were hoping to turn out tering students for months, - Don't believe the hype about the disappointing youth vote this year Even s the polls closed last Tuesday, many pundits, blog-gera-- and reporters were asking what hapiened to the much bully honed vourg voters who were supposed to turn out in huge numbers, prodded to the polls by MTV, the war in Iraq, frantic college registration drives and a close election. Some considered them a key swing vole that could help push Democratic Sen. John Kerry over the top . But in the election many commentators siud that ltv to were, once again, missing in action The trut h is, by many measures, young people appeared to have rockt-- the vote as promised and showed up in large nunilx-r- - bigger even than in 1992, the last high miu'k for turnout among this group, according to widely cited and accepted estimates It was the biggest turnout since 1972, when the voting age changed to 18 from 21, according to the Center for aller-math- Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement at the University of Maryland. Turnout was awesome, to put it simply," said Adam Alexander, a spokesman for the New Voters Project "We 20 million. And we hit 21 million." Researchers at the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning &. Engagement estimate that 4 6 million more people under the age of 30 voted this year as compared to 2000, based on exit polls and early vote total results That means that the overall turnout of young people was 51 6 percent up from 42 3 percent four yeai-- s ago. In battle- ground slates, it was even higher - at 64 percent So why were there so many wild inaccuracies slinging around'7 People misinterpreted the numbers, said Carrie Donovan, youth director at the University of Maryland research center. Some news reports stud that 10 percent of 18- - to showed up at the polls, when in fact 10 percent of the people interviewed in exit polls were in that age group. Some election researches have also pointed out that while more 18- - to showed up at the polls, they made up about the same percentage of the electorate -about 17 percent - as they did four years ago. That's because more voters of all ages went to the polls this year. Student organizers in Missouri and Illinois, many of whom had been drumming up excitement and actively regis still were surprised by the erroneous numbers slamming the youth vote. "We didn't know where those numbers were coming from," said Teresa Sullivan, president of the St Louis chapiter of Project Democracy and a semor at Washington University. The turnout here was really exceptional, from what we saw." Young voters were more divided than some had expected. They chose Kerry 55 percent of the time compared to 44 percent for Bush They were the only age group to prefer Democrats Curtis Cans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said he does not trust any numbers circulating about youth turnout, especially since the exit polls nationwide proved to not be very reliable. Still he does believe that young people on college campuses substantially increased their turnout in battleground states, where they probably helped make those races closer than they otherwise would have been, he said. The best information about youth turnout, many experts agree, will come out next year when the Census Bureau releases its population survey that includes voter and registration information. Hillary Clinton's politics likely a to look toward White House bid i - TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICE Sen. Hillary Clinton may be the Democrats' new -- presidential but it's a run she better start by inching slowly front-runne- toward the political middle, experts say. With President George W. Bush's victory secured Wednesday, the former First Lady immediately rocketed to the top of the list of Democratic hopefuls for the White House in 2008, when Bush is required to leave office. While Clinton's hold over the party's loyal, liberal base may be firm enough to win some early Democratic primaries, many believe she has much work ahead if she hopes to woo moderate, voters to her side. "She obviously has enormous political will and talent," said GOP consultant Roger Stone. "But I think she will have to find some broad consensus issues that will move her to the center, without alienating her base." The truth is that Clinton has never been as liberal as her critics portray her. She voted to support the war in Iraq including the $87 billion spending bill that John Kerry voted against and like her husband is considered hawkish on deficits. If she's serious about the presidency, watch for red-stat- e Clinton to start racking up other centrist stance perhaps through her po tion on the Senate Arme Services Committee. As Stone quipped, "She's going to have to find some weapons systems that she likes." She'll also likely make herself an early fixture A .nc he do ?rt tio 1 Ye; re 5 eni aa battleground states, raising money for the ne key ?r( round of congressional hopefuls while laying oui a philosophical framework for any presidents challenge to come. "She has the ability as senator to move around, and she has the rational as heir to the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party which right now all that's left standing,' said Democratic consult ant Hank Sheinkopf. For her part, Clinton stayed out of the limehgi this week, releasing onl brief statement from her home in Chappaqua, Westchester County, thanking Kerry for his hard work. "I am disappointed by the results," she said. 'Bl I am determined to work harder than ever in the Senate for the causes Sa far important to our future, like improving access to health care, strengthens the economy, protecting civil rights and fighting for wiser security In bU , ser he by Ah pe a f An SU Un ve) kn mi die ste AO H Aa sni vV as: 'h; Jo thi tal i r i uf A nu W 'h I s' Experts blelieve New York Senator Hillary Clinton may ba the next damoratic candidate for US President In 2008. th |