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Show AT The Salt Lake Tribune WORLD Sunday, November10, 2002 US-Iraq S& When would war start and what would happen next? BY SUSAN PAGE Gannett News Service hy is war looming, and why now? How would it be fought? What are the risks for American troops, U.S. allies and the economy? And what would happen after the war? USA Todayreporters in Wash- ington and the Persian Gulf region ‘Active weapons facilities @ Nuclear @ Biological ~ @ Chemical & Ballistic missiles interviewed U.S. and foreign offi- + Air bases ‘== Amy bases A Oil fields these and other key questions. U.S. officials describe a conflict that Saddam's palaces end, they hope, within weeks. If These facilities storage well ‘potion henomaficestan could start as early as December and ‘Saddam Hussein were captured, he @ Palace bult belore 1991 GullWar would face prosecution for war crimes, but where isn’t clear. His @ Palace ouster could stabilize the region, or vrand Gua rebut inflame it. Q ts war inevitable? Ac If not a certainty,war is clearly likely. President Bush has set a @ Palacebut ‘singe Gull goal not only of eliminating Iraq’s suspected weapons of mass destruction, but also of “regime change” — and Saddam isn’t expected to step aside voluntarily. The CIA is working with opposition groups and seeking potential allies within Iraq in hopes ofencouraging a coup, but that is seen as a distant prospect. Bush says he hasn't made a final some unexpected development, is likely to deter Bush from acting. Q: Why go to war now? A: Bush says Saddam's regime Crude oil reserves: 113 bition barrels. poses “a grave and gathering danger” because ofthe risk that he is developing weapons of mass destruc- tion — chemical, biological or nuclear arms —and might provide administra- a philosophical shift U.S.policy-makers in the wake of the Sept. 1] terrorist attacks. Q: When would the war start? A: As soon as early December, Per capita GDP (2000 est. U.S. doltars) ‘aq i $2,500 US. MERON $38,200 when the Muslim holy month of Ra- madan has ended and hot weather has moderated, analysts say. High 1.4 miltian temperatures make it difficult fot ©RRR USS.troops to travel in heavy ar- mored vehicles, which can become dangerouslyhot inside, and to wear the bulky gear that protects against chemical and biological weapons. Q: How long would fighting last? A: Defense analysts believe that vrFRRRRRAKRERERRARRARER US RRRREERRRRRRERRERARRRERKRERKERK Jewish and less than 1% Climate Ethnic groups ‘Saddam could be out of power within weeks, assuming most ofthe Iraqi army steps aside, as thousands of. hot, fy spring, sometimes ‘Arab 75%-80% Regional high and low temperatures (In degrees Fahrenheit) Kurd 15%-20% want the fighting to be over by the end of April, the start of the hottest part of the year. Q: What sort of war would it be? A: Quite different from the Gulf War. Then, the goal was to defeat the Iraqi armyand liberate Kuwait, Now, the goal would be to oust Saddam but not necessarily defeat his military. The United States would deploy high-tech weapons — including pilotless surveillance drones and. a lite-guided “smart bombs” — not a massive invasion force, im stead, a bombing campaign would be followed by fast-moving U.S. ground forces, including elite special operations troops, Q: Could Saddam flee? A; Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld suggests the United States | i, Tigris/Euphrales delta Sou raq's Weapons gas, anthrax and perhaps botulinum toxin. But they say he still can’t pro- duce the plutonium or enriched uranium needed to make a nuclear weapon. Whether he would use such weapons is the wild card, and a bigger risk now than it was during the Highest monthly price, per barrel,of light sweet crude oil during the 1990-91 Persian Gulf crisis: April 6: dan. 17: Aug. 2: Ore ares re a9 accepts rag host over £220. ‘This time, he might believe he has nothing to lose. Iraqi missiles have a maximum range estimated at 400- former Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic. months. But as soon as the U.S. bombing campaign began,the index climbed and was 3 percent above Q: Who would govern Iraq if Saddam were ousted? the pre-attack level whenthe ceasefire was declared. A: Possibilities from the Iraqiexile community include Hatem Mukhlis, Q: What about oi! production? whois a native of Saddam's home village of Tikrit and comes from a 550 miles, Officials worry that Iraq ages, experts say, and U.S. diplomats have sought promises from other oil-producing countries to ‘Source: Jonathan Cogan of the Energy Information Administration, ‘reported by Lori Joseph, USA’ make up for lost Iraqi production. USA Today AThe Security Council has apProved a tough new resolution and dam would be interested. Since the would target anti-aircraft systems, authorized serious “consequences” month. Deploying the forces initially end of the Gulf War, he has built more than 50 fortress-like structures he calls presidential palaces. He conceals his movements, uses doubles to make it harder to know where he is sleeps in th place missiles and aircraft. Pentagon officials also envision commando raids ee eeeee chemical or biological arsenals. if Iraq doesn't comply with it. Could U.N. Q: What would be the role of the Budget Office says waging the war United Katlons? would cost $6 billion to $9 billion a Saddam's presiden- the cost at $100 billion wo $200 bil: tial palaces. Iraq is unlikely to meet those ing lion. ‘The nonpartisan Congressional Virginia. In London, Sharif Hussein Bin Al-Ali, a cousinof the last king, oustedin 1958, leads an exile group that wantsa referendumto reinstate the royal family. Ahmed Chalabi, leader of the Iragi National Congress, an um: West could attract outside invest has close ties with Pentagon officials. But the former banker lacks a would cost $9 billion to $13 billion, the CBO says; returning U.S. forces home would cost $5 billion to $7 billion, Jower the cost of oil and boost the meant in the nation’s oil industry That would increase Iraqi output, US. economy. following in Iraq, Q: What would be the U.S.role in anew A Bushhaslittle patience for “na tion building,” a concept he scomed A: Try himfor war crimes, al during the 2000 campaign. He though just how it would dosoisn't would be inclined to hand off much A: Concer about the prospect of clear, The State Depastment is fi of that responsibility to the United : What would be the war's impact war already has weighed on the fragile recovery. The stock market has taken the effect of a war into ac: A: "Lowmece Lindsey, Bush's chief adviser, estimates Salhi, a former general who lives in month; an occupation afterward would cost $1 billion to$4 billion a fight or flee, he could, like Osama bin Laden, disappear without yielding power. eeee oe ae production. Afterthe war, installation of an prominent Arab family, and Najib brella group also based in London, on the U.S. economy? ministration has vowed to block the return ofinspectors unless they are backed by a new Security Council that demands access “anytime, anywhere” to Iraqi facil- Iraq now produces 1.7 million barrels of oil a day, 3 percent of world a surgeon from Binghamton,N.Y, Iraqi governmentfriendly to the two nights in a row. be an alternative to war? troops or aircraft. Germany has ruled ‘Another possibility: Rather than A: Probably not. The Bush ad- out participating. A Intelligence officials believe Saddam has stores of sarin nerve 1990,fueling talk of war, the S&P 500 dropped 15 percent in two couldarm a Scudmissile with a France, and Idi Amin of Uganda, now in Saudi Arabia. But there are no indications Sad- mass destruction? ‘The United States might ask anoth- ‘That is what happened a decade er country tohost a tribunal, like the ago. When Iraq invaded Kuwait in ‘one in the Netherlands that is trying A: The lossof Iraqi oil during a Crippling Saddam's$ ability to launch weapons ofmass destruction would be top priority, says Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Airstrikes & Does Saddam have weapons of attack levels or evenrise. war wouldn't cause serious short Q: What would our closest allies to? AX Only Britainis likely to contribute a si number of USA Today AnneCarey, USA Today Gulf War, Then, the United States would accept his exile: “There are a lot of dictators living in various around the world in quite Western/southern desert |we less than 5% count, some analysts say. Econom ic anxiety might even be eased once the war began, While the market might dip immediately after the war began, it could soon return topre hancing a group that is preparing a case to indict Saddam for crimes against humanity, such as his use of chemical weapons against Lragi Kurds in the 1980s. But that effort could be awkward, given the Bush administration's opposition to the new International Criminal Court. Nations, This article was reported by John Osamond, Judy ‘Koon, Dave Mon, Susan Page, Barbara Stivin Contrixting Steven Komarow in Bertin, Eat ‘lak Senh in Istamabad, Pakistan. Vivre Wa (0 Baghdad, rag, and Barbara Hagentbaugh, Min Hal ann Jarmes Heahey i Washington |