Salt Lake Tribune | 1998-11-30 | Page 4

A4 TheSaltLake ‘'ribune Pollster Packs Political Punchin Utah @ Continued From A-1 mer Goy. Cal Rampton, listen at- tentively as Jonestells them their party has reached a crossroads with the 1998 election. With good strategy and old-fashioned door- to-door campaigning — targeted by state-of-the-art polling, of course — the future could be bright for the perpetual underdog of Utah polities DanJones, at 64, has reached a sroads, too. After three dec- s been criticized — mostly in private — for his unusual status 1s Utah’s favorite pollster. In a nation that mistrusts politi cians, journalists and anyone caught between, Jones conducts the KSL/Deseret News poll while multaneously working for some of the candidates the news organi- tions are covering Mr. Jones can claim a rare chievement uniquein this country.” says Michael Kagay, New York Times news surveys editor ind president of the American \ssociation for Public Opinion esearch. wouldbe toughtopull off — tou satisfy both political parties fathering agencies. agay, who is plainly razed. “That is an unusual feat. u must have a very special po- ical culture. People in Utah she claims But ironically, Jones’ media work actually helped Eskelsen, Donovan say. “He took a few missteps that werenot very kind tohis client [Cook]. Back in Washington, weused Dan Jones’ statements inthe Deseret News — that it was a very close race — to do fundraising. His statements gave us credibility in fund raising David Magleby, a political-sci ence professor at Brigham Young University who uses students to do political polling, says that Jones’ unusual arrangement raises a“specter of conflict of in terest. ‘| know of no other pollster in any market who has been able to cross boundaries the way Dan does,” Magleby says Magleby says havinga pollster whois also wor! g for the news media would give a cant ate and his party “a tremendous rategic advantage.” kelsenherself says she considered hiring Jones but decided against “He's too closely connected with the news media. I wouldn't be comfortable with a pollster who wasasking thekinds of ques- tions that I needed asked also ‘king so closely with the me- ‘Although Donovan and other Eskelsen campaign officials complained bitterly about the Cook pollster’s cozy relationship with the news media, Democratic Chairwoman Meghan Holbrook, contacted after the election, said she had no compiaints to make about DanJones, whohad already agreed to give the party a postelection wrapup all sides of all fences does not directly violate their code of eth- tack. His business could not survive in a small state like Utah unless hetakes all the work that’s s professionals say Jones’ work- Jones’ se s these conflict-of-interest allegations as a personal at- of LGD Insight of Portland, Ore. tich polled for Lily Eskelsen’s available, he says. Political polling is about percent of his firm’s work. “I couldn't keep my ia-candidate relationship. is head abovewaterif I didn’t take this work mpaign thinks Jones’ tangled lybeyondthe pale It’s entirely inappropriate for him to be this ‘impartial’ media inalyst and also be working for publican candidates,” Dono im says. “His working for the vseret News and KSL gives Re _As for his positionof trust in fh, Jones’ answer is terse: “It’s becauseI’maccurateandI'mhon est (The Salt Lake Tribune has never used Jones’ serv Valley Research Inc., puulicaas an immense strategic idvanta The news media polls support and evenextendtheprivatepoll ing Jones does for his candidates. .t staffs are assigned ‘lL wever uk my numbers, Jonessays. After the KSL-Deseret News polls are published he makes the complete survey infor- mation available to any candidate whoasksforit LaVarr Webb, a managing editor ai the Deseret News whoonce served on Gov. Mike oes staff, say the paper had sever which doneresearch for The Tribunein recent years, does not poll for political candidates.) Jonesdislikes talking about the details of his work, but he ex- wordsin Utah. When Republican Enid Greene hired Jonesin the 1994 2nd CongressionalDistrict race, she beat Cook, who was runningas an inde- pendent in what turned into an ugly race. “Merrill Cook used to go on TV and rip me,” Jones says of that campaign. (The mercuric Cook is embroiled in a court battle with the pollster heused in finally win- ning the seat in 1996.) But when Cook had to defend crowbar numbers. No!” he says emphatically, his voice bouncing off the walls of the Alta Club meeting room. “Geod or bad, I go with the numbers I come up with.” Translator for Hire: Jones also likes to say he doesn’t give political advice. He merely learns the will of the governed and passes it along to those who gov- ern. Helikens himself to a translator between the electorate and discussions on whether to contin his first-term seat this year tisan work. This year for thefirst against sharp-witted, aggressive Eskelsen, Cook immediately only the meanings but the au- for whom he was working when his KSL/Deseret News polls were whohassaid he looks on Jones as a Utah political deity, told The like political advice he’s offering Jones agrees. ‘We came to the conclusicn beat Eskelsen was with Jones’ ueusing Jones becauseofhis par- time, the newspaper required Jones to disclose the candidates published, a policy with which that heis a very good pollster and an honest one,” says Webb. “We have no concern that he is using niust bevery trusting Though Kagay and otherpoll es, others aren't so sure Lisa Grove Donovan, president dlains his staff “Jes separate surient and he makes the paper to advance his candi- Too Close for Comfort it, UTAH Monday, November 30,1998 dates.” Webb, joking, says, “Oneof the nice things about using the manis that heis paranoid. He’s so care- turned to Jones Early in the campaign, Cook, public-opinion savvy. tense 1998 election night, a reelected and exuberant Congressman Cook repeated to television party candidate — such as former pollster in America,” was central governor-elect, Ventura Tribune the only way he could nd the morning after that cameras that Jones, “the best to his victory. if information is power, then ful. He goes way out ofhis wayto Jones indeed has clout. credibility. To the newsmedia, mits it might appear to be a con- be his “swan song” a pollster for candidates. “I may continue to work for the media,” hesays. “Or I mightretire completely.” To the Utah public, he is the voice of he is aninstitution. To politicians of all persuasions, his numbers and understanding of the Utah politi- mere numbers eruncher — is un- derstandable. Since he started polling in the late 1959 the candidates for whom Jones supplies numbers are nearly always victorious. More thanthat, his predictions based onhis public opinion sam- And to desperate candidates like Cook. hiring Jonesis an act akinto putting a plastic Jesus on your dashboard: Bring in Dan Jones and you win ‘This kind of fame is mortifying to Jones. Ever since Cook's state- ahardtime remembering a candi date wholost with Jones supply ing numbers. Finally, she recalls a client wholost in a primary Jones’ association with Orrin Hatch sincethe mid-1970sis par. ticularly important to the pollster. And vice versa. With Jon on board, the Utah senator has never lost an election. As a result, two unknowns became household tempt y for politicians who are public opinion. “Listen he says. “Those who live by the polls wil i die bythe polls. If those in office know things the tle change in Utah's political at- leader Marlin Jensen's statement calling for morepolitical diversi- ty — a few Democrats even — among the Mormonfaithful. “It is having an effect,” he says. It gave people who have wanted to be Democrats an opportunity to come out.” Other bits of non-advice that Jonespasses on to the Democrats: Campaign door-to-door, particularly in Salt LakeCity's minorityrich neighborhoods, which have seen voter registration leaps through the motor-voter law. Moral issues wili always find their way into Utah elections, he warns. “Just don’t lead with them.” FBinishing his analysis, Jones says, “I love thisstate. I love this pntey And it might surprise you, but I love you Democrats.” ll Your ‘Hi ists Wi Deseret Book mentinlarge part crediting him has beentrying to convince anyplying his usual deadly accurate for Dan Jones and Associates, has Thatsaid, Jones expresses con- nothing to dowith it beyond supinformation. “I don't even know where Cook's election headquarters were,” hesays. “I haven't talked to himsincetheelection.” In the wrap-up speech to the Democratic Party elite, Jones sounds almost apologetic. “I did not help Merrill Cook. 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Legis- wife of 23 some say 99 percent right. His point is that if the major parties don't give the er can this be Dan Jones, the spectacularly successful pollster for the GOP, giving the Demo- cal landscape aresurvival essen- ples Tied to Victories: Thepublic’s perception of Jones’ role in Utah politics — that he is more than a ances of public opinion right. But Jones’ statistical wrap-up speech at the Alta Club sounds up, sage political advice, at that “You cannot be on the extremes and win,’ Jones says, adding wickedly, “Just ask Jesse Ven- make sure his numbers are accu rate,” In alater interview, Jones adflict of interest. “I'msensitive to * Because of that concern, he ys, the 1999-2000 election wil! its leaders who tries to get not public does not know — you must ree for what is best. And stand by a Pies, 1-800-453-4532