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Show irWH irtKluiNiEulSHlS if i:1kC sn? IMMMHWiM!Bl.-Jir- ' n j Of the polls and negativity COMMENTARY BY CRAIG JONES Though historically, several election outcomes or at least f premature, nearly all polls this year show a significant shift in opinion favorable to 1 George Bush and a likely Bush victory over j Michael Dukakis. prefer to avoid the always-risk- y business of predicting the election, but rather comment on the shift in opinion and strategies of the 1988 presidential campaign. An early disclaimer should be made, however, on polls. Though polling about the methods have become more sophisticated since the Literary Digest polls of the 1930s, one only need examine the disparity of figures from different polls during a similar time period to be very cautious. In the 1984 presidential race between Walter Mondale and Ronald Reagan, polls showed Reagan conducted during ahead, but they varied from nine to 25 points. Recent polls on the 1988 election show Bush ahead, but the polls vary between seven and 1 7 points. Furthermore, social scientists agree that preferences and opinions among a substantial number of potential voters is soft." That is, preferences are not firmly held. As one observer has put it, many opinions during the '88 election are quite superficial and reflect the campaign's rhythm and flow a rhythm and flow that has favored Bush in recent weeks. It appears from this point in time (and matters of this nature really require historical hindsight and perspective to be worth a lot) that campaign strategy and message are major factors in the election of '88. Although economic and world conditions seem to be on the side of the Republicans, polls taken in July and August of this year showed Dukakis ahead some by as many as 5 to 20 points. Even though a lead, if valid, was due partly to publicity stemming from the Democratic National Convention, the apparent swing in opinion could likely be a result of j campaign strategy and style. What has been the Bush strategy? It has campaign. definitely been a negative, attack-styl- e There has been an unparalleled effort to try to scaie the voter about the other guy," to quote a Republican campaign aid. The interesting paradox (CONTINUED ON PAGE 12) I ' have proven the polls wrong over-relian- er 1 Bush, Dukakis meet in 'the only poll that 1 i GEORGE BUSH t v counts'"' V x MICHAEL DUKAKIS -BY LISA ",'g A ( X HEATON As the 1988 presidential campaign draws to a close, Republican nominee George Bush and Democrat Michael Dukakis, take advantage of their last chance to emphasize major campaign issues and criticize the opponent's stance on public policy. In a race dominated by mudslinging and negativism, the main issues such as the budget deficit, foreign policy, and national defense have often taken a back seat to trivial concerns. Bush opposes abortion, supports aid to the Contras, and advocates the modernization of strategic weapons. On budgetary matters, Bush supports the balanced-budgdeficit amendment and the Gramm-Rudma- n reduction law. Bush was inaugurated on January 20, 1981, as vice president. Since that time, he has chaired task forces on regulatory relief, narcotics, and Japanese trade. Polls show Bush having a slight but substantia! lead in the race as he continues to stress his "law and order" approach to politics with vice presidential hopeful Dan Quayle at his side. A two-terIndiana senator, Quayle has undergone intense public scrutiny since Bush announced him as his running mate in August. The candidate's method of entering the Indiana National Guard during the Vietnam era and his mediocre academic record at DePauw University set the media on fire immediately after his et nomination. The Democratic candidates have questioned both Bush's and Quayle's capacities for leadership throughout ' i r the race. Three-terMassachusetts Gov. Dukakis and vice presidential running mate Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, who has been a Texas senator since 1970 when he defeated George Bush, continue to remind the American public "we re on your side." Dukakis has built a liberal platform supporting pro-choi- abortion and opposing the balanced-budgamendment, calling instead for spending restraint. Dukakis seeks emphasis on conventional defense defense projects. weapons, opposing several large-scal- e As governor of the Bay State, Dukakis turned the state's stagnating economy around, reducing the unemployment rate from 1 1 percent to 3.8 percent. He is also credited with building a strong business base in Massachusetts and implementing the state's Employment and Training Program for welfare recipients. During 18 years in the U.S. Senate, Bentsen introduced bills to enact catastrophic health care legislation and welfare reform. Bentsen has advocated a strong national defense coupled with serious efforts toward amis control. Critics of the pair often point out that Dukakis and Bush have failed to see on most crucial issues. Other presidential candidates include Delmar Dennis with running mate Earl Jeppson of the American Party, Libertarian Ron Paul and vice presidential candidate Andre Marrou, Lenora B. Fuiani of the New Alliance Party with running mate Joyce Dattner. Also running are Lyndon H. La Rouche, Jr. with vice presidential candidate Debra H. Freeman for the National Economic Recovery Party, independent Louie G. Youngkeit, Socialist Willa Kenoyer, and James MacWarren and running mate Kathleen Mickells of the Socialist Workers Party. eye-to-e- |