Show W av ampo st a VIA 11 ta ve n t ur ISSue dRega P IN aloo le m s 0 t leae af new york Noi november ember lb 16 the tha the problems probien ts ot of war ar la Is over but I 1 ilace bace loom large are we a to have a louguet Leni jue of nations can tho opposing views regarding of the seas BOUS bo be har bar I 1 how large an indemnity should germany Clor many pay how flow much can sho she pay flow will american lie be by shipping tood food and labor conditions during the next twelve months how flow will currency deflation and the ol of amr contracts loam lets att alt lt the prices and supplies of ma lua ihu german rho question of 0 a league of 0 na tlona and the fro freedom odoul of 0 t the h e seas have a relation too tar far reaching over the world a commerce and american business men are vitally interested lu in those these matters though in a homo what remote and general way luo 1110 question of gorman german indemnity however la is of immediate interest it to Is estimated according to different bases basca of calculation that germany owes owea france 1301 belgium glum and serbia for property destroyed and other ali e ei for ships and various other loizes loi atta anywhere from six elx to ten billions this indemnity 1111 u shall cormany pay money Is 19 it fair that the Inde indemnity maitY bo be settled by more money payment germany ys s industrial ot of remains intact some of tho the most important districts of 0 franco k and belgium ca have been devastated the bu business concerns und and populations of 1 theae districts cannot resume competition in the worlds markets on a fair basis bails with germany within josd lily six months or a year Is it fair that thai germany should have V afree free hall ban I 1 to lu employ her facto factories ries an anu labor in re ov cring her world trade whit while le the industries of the allies llo ito prostrate would it not be a just demand that it a part of the tha german army officers and men should bra be empl employed employ oil in r rebuilding the property destroyed during the german invasion that germany should return all tile the machan she bhe has baa carried away and in udon adon iloa take from her own factories enough to enable the french and belgian industrial plants to resume immediate activity in case the work of restoration can bo be advantageously dono done with allied labor materials and machinery of course it might be desirable to employ them with german indemnity money there may be a surplus laboring population in franco and italy which will need employment so BO that it will not be desirable to compel the he vandal to pretoro with lila hla own on hands tho the prop property orty he has destroy 1 I like other reconstruction reconstruct loft nua wa this question Is EL a coul complicated tie no but peace terms should require erman labor to repair property de strayed troyed fa where liere such a policy will benefit industry and not adversely anict employment conditions in the allied nations ability to ila I 1 la Is germany in it a position to increase can she bhe borrow enough money from the Ceri german tian inN investors estors to pay an indemnity of ten billions in england and the united states taxes havo have been four times the tha ordinary peace revenues before the war and both countries have been able to pay the entire interest on their war nar debt with a surplus to spare they havo have been able to do this because their countries are democratic and the people are willing to pay in germany however the wealthy and the nobles refused to tax themselves the result was that the german war taxes in excess ot of peace Z requirements u ir ei during the past year were we re not enough to pay one third of the interest on tho the war dolt dola it was obvious that germany would have to lica after the I 1 i tax her people more vily war nar unless indemnities could by be imposed upon other countries that Is why the katser kaiser sacrificed a million german soldiers Bold lera during the last nin months of the conflict in ili a reckless qs attempt to gain victory germanys germanas Germ anys industries are arc not now realizing enough profits to enable her to lew maximum taxes and her corn com merce must be restored to a prods table basis before she ehe can pay the interest on her war debt this does not mean however that she cannot secure money enough from german investors to pay a considerable war ar indemnity in france in 1871 a way war indemnity of a billion dollars was paid to germany in a very short time it the german people are equally patriotic and are equally desirous ot at getting rid ot at foreign military forces of occupation the ger man patriots of a new democracy may rally to the support of their government and exhibit it a surprising strength in financial re resources all things considered however it seems likely that germany will have to borrow a part of the indemnity money from france england and the united states that Is the new ger man government will aill issue german bonds which will ks 16 sold in the allied countries and america and pro eeds used to compensate the allies for war losses tho the actual payment of the indemnity will be made when germany redeems the 1 I 0 U a the allies at the peace settlement the 13 shortage hortage of ships millis during the war the allies seized many german ships aad peace terms will require that tb ships now interned in german ports must be employed to replace allied losses thus thua the shipping needs of tho the allies allees will be ba satisfied satis fled before the requirements of germany a exporters but even so BO there will be a u sh shortage of ships during the next twelve months montha the of tile the world has increased during the war and in du productive power lias has beoh thereby increased increase d there has haa been a normal increase in the demand for and yet the existing tonnage Is lobs lebs than as actually in use ir in 11 nearly one third of the tort ton 11 nagu age lit in 1914 lias has iccil been destroy destroyed td and new construction has fallen short by avral million lull lion tons rho hio shortage iaan variously estimated at any where from five to ten million gross drosis tons in fact act one writer says fourteen million tons tona Un england glands 8 capacity for to la less lesa than three 1 ii v N construction million tons a year and tho the shipyards ur tho tha united baates are now prodoc ing only about gross tons pcr i anth or three millions it a year mr air schwab expects a production of 00 00 tons per month next spring a i rate of over tons ton s pr year but tile the supply of snips will it not at b bo 0 normal for about eighteen months As an offset to this shortage of course it Is IB true that the shipments of military supplies lios will gradually during diering 1919 hut but a lon con sid erable tonnage will be needed to transport military forces front from turkey to franco france and england and front from france to the united states and it tile allies employ amplo it a million men in and the ll alkana and tile th same number in germany these will havo have to be supplied with lood lear and war aar ma aerials all things considered onside red it seems certain that tile tho demand for ships will be so BO great during the lie next twelve months that ocean freight aratea cannot return to normal and meanwhile commerce will bo be somewhat restricted and the cost of importing fortion forman goods will be some home N what hat above normal granting that there will be ba a short ago age of ships shall our government continue to build them at an abnormally high cost coat ot of materials and labor front an cLon economic omIL standpoint it would be desirable to curtail shipbuilding until materials and labor are cheaper there are reasons however why the government may feel fool obliged to continue construction at an excessive cost and pocket a certain amount of financial loss on ship 1 cinq construction we cannot ask england to maintain our military forces abroad during the war england has haa sacrificed her own commercial interests and has transported american troops even though british exporters lost opportunities to sell their goods wo we cannot risk ask tile alie british to continue to make this hai they must have their Os own n ships tor for british commerce and mean meanwhile hile american exporters will lie be seriously handicapped unless we ke continue to build ships oen enen at an ex Los oss lva sivel cost food at the present tanu linit there la is an available surplus or of I 1 0 00 0 0 bushels of 0 wheat in argentina and australia the accumulations ot of several years and their new et ciopa aps ops will soon huou bo be lia harvested rested oats are now non selling in argentina at 30 cents at a td with 70 cents in chicago As socia as shipping Is available market supplies of artin in europe will ill be increased by foreign importations and prices will full fall lit in view of larger supplies 8 tit in pros int the american people will ill be in dined to indulge thern themselves selves more liberally in the consumption of road food As a matter of good business busine gs how r the conservation ot of food should I 1 be e continued by the government for another twelve mouths months owing to the unsettled political conditions iu in russia and the balkan states a normal production of food cannot bo be expected there during the nt twelve months revolutions ank nn riots are aggravated b food shortage and in order to restore normal I 1 commercial conditions between nations it Is desirable that america shall export ns as much food as possible to germany and austria a as 8 well ell ns as to our allies and our own onn military forces abroad lood food conditions throughout the world cannot again become normal tit at least until after the harvests of 1919 come upon market nid and immigration the labor question is tied up antl anti with the food question it tile tho food supply to Is not normal and the cost of living remains high ageg cannot bo be reduced without serious industrial disputes dispute i the I 1 he government as a public duty must pro provide provida vidt every soldier with a job aud and it if the supply of 0 labor increases more rap I 1 idly than the cost of food declines an embarrassing situation will result I 1 in this connection also we ne must remember that millions of people ma desire to escape business depression nd ind food shortage in europe by emigration before the war there thare was as onside considerable rable european europe in emigration to auth america but the united states rv elved nearly a million aliens annually will immigration now recover to a milion souls a year or will foreign governments restrict immigration in this connection it must he be remembered that since the war began con gros has haa enacted a law restricting immigration will this law effect aall curtail the admi admission stion ut of aliens into this country the principal feature to la an illiteracy clause which staica that admission shall denied to all allena aliens over sixteen years of age physically capable of reading who cannot read tho the eng ligh elsh language or some other lan ian guage ir r dialect rho government la is planning a gen oral mage adjustment board which with the 0 a operation of at the labor lona and manufacturers together with a judicious method of making decisions rg regarding arding the fixing 01 0 wages lit in relation to tho cost coet of liv ing may be able to settle disputes without ruinous maximum production aill bo be ned Beary if niall gium earnings aro are to be realized zel ilav Mati als H 4 and cat icci t cont tile the government cannot legally legall cancel Us its contracts cont racla but it has haa al ready notified manufacturers of at cot ton goods woolens und and steel that it does not want a 0 o part of materials previously ordered certainly ev an enormous amount of steel requested for making shells will no bo available for civilian tion LOBS less steel will also be requested tor for shell plates than has rf recently rien acen the case deliveries of ship plates giai hae e been att at the rate of 5 00 0 0 tons per for some time and a surplus of a million tons has accini accum in the future ship plates will nill be ba delivered only ns as them the ure are actually used in the hulls and the surplus may be reduced in tile the dr dry goods industry there is a pres sare to distribute goods prices have been cut by mars marshall hall field colmoan and other largo large housos and consumers are holding back for lower prices there Is tain to be a considerable decline in ra raw wool prices but the movement will bo be retarded by the lack of at shipping tonnage to transport supplies from australia aud and argentina it expected that germany and aus i arit ali will buy raw cotton before the war nar I 1 ahey consumed over two million b ika per year iut but exports of cot ton ilso IBO will be temporarily retarded by the shortage of ships and the political conditions condl tlona in europe lit in the steel trade a plan has been suggest suggested cd of asking the government to pay lit in full for all goods manu im ia tired according to contract and for all materials in process on the athis of their cost plus a percentage i profit according to the of manufactured the manufacture of passenger au all which had been reduced to 50 per cent of capacity cllia city and anas to be almost discontinued by next jan uary nary can call now noa go ahead lit at a fair rate of production it must be remembered however hoever that the goern government ment will still demand ill a nd unusually large supplies in addition to maintaining a large po lice ike force lit in europe it will also be to keep a considerable military try tit lii camp tit in tile unit ed statta until conditions in europe are Mor moreover tover tion can take place only as fast as jobs cin be found for the soldiers curmiel deflation in the collector of cus tonis dubits does not accept austrian bank notts because duties aie a I 1 e pi lii able in gold and bink bank notes are not worth their ir face value in ill coin some doi of the depreciation of p piper aper money in austria mu iua be glo gleaned anel the vict that the customs col it tor for has announced that he will accept aso crowns in paper mono where here crowns in gold are ro re red tor for payment of tariff revenues NN tit th paper trione bione thus circulating at ratio of at 2 16 to 1 in ili terms ot at goul goiti oin itis it Is evident that austria cannot gold payment until after i long period of business tion in ili russia also there it is 19 been chaotic fi and a fe few months ngo ago piatr mone circulated ti it tho the ratio of about 4 to I 1 in terms 0 of r gold coin As soa soon as order is re stored however hoener russia should re cu petate rapidly lil ready her cut cui circulates at ai the me ratio of 2 to I 1 owing to the hope of early ini im provement pro vemont even in ili russia ho however Never it will require it a series of good crops and generous financial assistance from the allies to make a resumption gold payment feasible in germany the has sufficient gold to make possible tho the resumption of gold payment as soon eoon as political conditions condl tlona are settled it if we 0 o consider the existing relation of this gold to the paper money in circulation it Is certain however that some of this gold has been stolen from belgium and russia and some may liae have been borrowed from the dank of austria it remains to be seen how the restoration of stolen gold will nill affect germanys germanas Germ anys supply of cash but germany Is a wealthy nation and raold recovery ma be ex pecked in frabee england and the united states the restrictions on the free movement of gold will ill be relaxed at an all early date in england especially there is a strong demand that not only shall the gold stan standard of payment bo be maintained but that credit |