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Show p, , ' " - ' Democrats 1948 Chances Uncertain i Truman's Popularity Grows But Party Itself Is Shaky By BAUKHAC.E News Analyst and Commentator. (1 Ml follows a series on the men most talked about as candidates for the Repuhliian presidential nomination). WASHINGTON. One Sunday last month, a friend and I watched President Truman unveil a plaque on Covenant First Presbyterian church. The occasion was a ceremony establishing estab-lishing the church as a national house of worship for Presby-tcrinns. Presby-tcrinns. Just previously, a wreath had been laid on the nearby statue of John Witherspoon, Presbyterian clergyman, signer of the Declaration of Independence, Inde-pendence, and one-time president of what is now Princeton university. "There never was a time," Hresi dent Truman said, in paying tribute trib-ute to John Witherspoon. "when we needed more of the backing of those people who believe in the Golden Rule, and who believe in the teachings teach-ings of Jesus Christ." The President wis, of course, speaking of moral support, but he had reason to be rather cheerful because be-cause of another kind of backing which he had just learned he had the kind measured by Dr. Gallup's polls. Gallup called it "one of the most dramatic reversals of political sentiment senti-ment in history." On October 16 of last year, the poll reported Demo- Franklin Roosevelt claimed there was no labor vote, as such. Former Secretary of Labor Frances Perkins Perk-ins said there was none, and in thn.se days, there wasn't, despite the existence of the American Labor party in New York City. I doubt that there Is a "labor "la-bor vote" now, despite the AFL's new "Education and Pub-lie Pub-lie Relations" unit, and the CKV PAC, and their threats to punish pun-ish supporters of the Taft-Hartley law. As a matter of fact, I understand opposition to the law is cooling, except where fires are being artificially fanned, and old-timers tell me it will (a) be modified and (b) be forgotten. for-gotten. The fall congressional election in the eighth Pennsylvania district where such Herculean efforts were put forth to make the bill an issue, didn't prove too much either way, except that the highly-organized CIO campaign did NUT defeat the Republican Re-publican candidate. Party Machinery Has Deteriorated Democratic party machinery has deteriorated rapidly since 1938 when it was discovered that Roosevelt's ("at fails were no longer strong enough to put local candidates into Office Gradually, precinct, city, county and state organizations began be-gan to take far more interest in electing local officers than they fare In working together as a unit foi the national candidate. In Roose-velt'l Roose-velt'l case, that was hardly necessary neces-sary And the White House got into the habit of thinking it wasn't necessary nec-essary to do much for the local people peo-ple either. So the gulf widened. It is true that reel bell-ringing was carried on by the left wing organized or-ganized around the CIO-PAC, but in some cases this support proved the kiss of death. The Democratic machine will haye to work for the co-operation of Wallace and the present offshoots of CIO-PAC because be-cause it cannot afford to alienate that type of support Gallup a month or so ago reported in a survey cf political orientation that 50 per cent of the American people favored a middle - of - the - road policy Of course, much depends on who becomes the Repubiiean candidate for president. That is the reason that the possibility possibil-ity of an EleetdWWer or even a MacArthur on the horizon raises Jitters in the executive mansion. Much also will depend on the strength of the big city bosses. The Kelly machine is pretty weak. Chicago's Chi-cago's new Mayor Kennelly is giving giv-ing the city an administration such as it hasn't had in a long time. But he has weakened, not strengthened, the old Kelly outfit However, 1 hear that Sen. Scott Lucas a down-stater, who always fought Kelly until the last time, may run for governor of Illinois. He is strong down-state. This might help Vruman with the Illinois delegation. How strong will the new Kansas City machine be'.' O'Dwyer is re furbishing Tammany, but the Tiger hasn't its old wallop How much the greatly-weakened Hague machine ma-chine in New Jersey can contribute, contrib-ute, 1 don't know There is one thing to be considered. Almost all the machines (except Crump's Memphis regulars) have been weakened weak-ened by the growth of power of the labor bosses What the Democrats may gain by the labor bosses' influence influ-ence in attracting some of the liberals lib-erals who made up the Roosevelt following, may be lost in alienating alienat-ing some of the old line party workers. cratic party Baukhage strength at its lowest low-est point in 16 years. Three weeks later, the survey was confirmed at the polls with election of a Republican Repub-lican congress. But today, Mr. Truman's popularity popular-ity is way up. A year ago the score was 53 to 47 in favor of the Republicans; Re-publicans; in the last count it vas 66 to 44 in favor of the Democrats. On the question: "Do you approve ap-prove or disapprove of the way Mr. Truman is handling his Job as President?" the scoreboard aid: Approve 55 per cent Disapprove 2!) per cent. I he rest expressed no opinion. Much water has flowed over the dam since the two polls were taken More will flow; and at any rate no poll can measure the Imponderables Imponder-ables facing the Democrats They have been going through a whole cycle of hopes and fears. The Octo ber poll may have been almost as surprising as pleasing to party lead ers. They know there must be an end to all things, and it is pretty hard to prove that the stream has not been crossed and that the voters who used, sometimes, to elect Republican Re-publican presidents, still shudder et the danger of changing horses. The one biggest abstract obstacle to the election of the Democratic president is the fact that the Democrats Demo-crats have just been around too long. Undoubtedly the biggest concrete con-crete threat is General Eisenhower. Eisenhow-er. When that atomic boom first threatened to break, the President was on the high seas, but the details de-tails were reported to him blow by blow and it was quite a blow. Probably the next biRgest headache is the internal condition condi-tion of the party. After long delay and much dissatisfaction, a new national chairman. Sen. Howard McGrath iDem., R. I.l was selected, and welcomed in most quarters, lie has a job cut out for him because the Democratic Demo-cratic machine has grown very rusty in the last years, and it Is not only rust which has corrupted. cor-rupted. Nor is it the machine alone that creaks. Will-o-the-wisp Wallace with his constant threat of a third party is a threat to the Democratic party itself. Nobody believes that a third party candidate could possibly be elected as things stand now. But did you ever see that traffic safety slogan: "Don't try to guess what a child will do?" Democratic leaders are up against the same thing. They don't dare guess what that problem child, Henry Wai lace, will do. He is quite capable of going ahead and starting a third party with the full knowledge that it couldn't accomplish anything but the election of a Republican president presi-dent A third party would have not merely a nuisance-value, but Wal- lae miefht rlpdnm up a long-range scheme of leading a political labor movement like Britain's. Brit-ain's. After many defeats, that turned into a political party which finally attained power and put a socialistic impress on the Wallace whole British national na-tional economy bo the Wallace threat is a very definite defi-nite one. And what about the labor vote? It has long been a theory, iterated by former AFL boss Gompers, and (until passage of the Taft-Hartley act) reiterated by his successor Mr. Green, that there was no such animal |