| Show Changing Trends in Food Trade I IBy By Frederic J. J WASHINGTON The v The ASHINGTON-The The likelihood that the United States will be a n heavy food importing country for fora or ora a while at least is exercising tho the thought of oC many who have bec been observing the pro program ram of tho the agricultural ral adjustment administration administration adminis adminis- with relation to reducing farm production and raising the price level For by far the greater great great- er part of or its It history the United States has been a sort of world larder exporting vast tonnages of oC food products chiefly the heavier staples In addition there has been the huge movement of oC raw cotton overseas Now the trend is shifting The developments been worked out on an index number basis with the year 1929 adopted as as representing for or both quantities quantities quantities quan quan- and values of or tho the products E Exports of crude foodstuffs from the United States Stales began to fall sharply sharp when the depression started started start start- ed at the end of 1929 There was wasa a check in 1931 when the index was down to 78 but then the downward trend recommenced It reached a point of only for last year car scarcely more than third one-third of ot the 1929 crude foodstuff foodstuff foodstuff food food- stuff exports The downward course of values was even greater There was not even the 1931 check 1933 the price index had fallen to a little below 20 By the end of 1934 it had trembled up to These crude crudo foodstuffs foodstuffs food food- stuffs consisted chiefly of grains meat and such heavy staples the sort of things which America traditionally had been shipping aboard especially to Europe Figures Show Trends Now comes the startling com corn comparison comparison parison the stor story of oC the imports of f crude foodstuffs They are arc not of f course the same foodstuffs al although although al- al though hough considerable Canadian wheat has come in On the tho same 1929 base of at It is found that he the general imports of crude foodstuffs foodstuffs food food- stuffs never declined below 81 as asa asi a i quantity index and at the end if oC f 1934 were up to Prices declined much more abruptly but buthe the he index did not go nearly as low lowas as la the export price index It touched 40 in 1933 but had re recovered rc- rc covered to by the end of oC 1934 This compares with the tho export price index of In other words the index of value which American merican exporters received sank much nuch lower than the index of oC alue value which Americans had to pay for tor or imports Principal food staples imported included coffee and sugar Ugar Foodstuffs and Cotton Suffer The general index is employed in n depicting the exports and imports imports im im- im- im ports orts of manufactured foodstuffs that that is the year 1929 as representing representing eating Here it is found that he the same same- trends obtained but in inan inin in La even cven more more marked degree he the balance swinging in favor of off f reign foreign countries In the department of manufactured foodstuffs the exports bega be- be ga jan ari declining in 1930 and have kept pt right on going down At the lose close of oC 1934 the volume index was vas van down to 54 51 The value index is Ls in case of the raw foodstuffs ank sank more rapidly reaching a low index figure of 32 in 1932 and recovering re- re covering to at the end of 1934 In n sharp contrast appears the experience experience ex ex- with imports of oC manu- manu manufactured foods tho food which Americans buy from foreigners In n a volume it is found the decline following 1929 carried the index down iown own to 70 in 1932 but then there thereas was vas an abrupt reversal While he the export index was continuing to o 0 descend the import index started to climb while Americans were ero finding narrower and nar- nar ower rower markets abroad foreigners were ero finding broader markets here lere After the 1932 low p the imort im- im imort import port ort volume index climbed to by y py the end of 1934 The same wing swing is noted in the value index of f imports Dropping after 1929 it t reached a a. low Jow of 40 in 1932 but buty by y py the close of 1934 1931 was up to lo These figures all aU relate to lo foodstuffs foodstuffs food food- stuffs tuffs but the experience with otton cotton one of the old standbys oC f agricultural export trade has followed the same sarno channel Whereas the United States Slates once furnished more than three quay of all Jhc he raw cotton In the world now less Jess than half of it is b supplied and the proportion is diminishing The A A A manipulations manipulations manipulations lations have increased the price loa to lo toa toa a level at which the crop is bringIng bringing bringing bring bring- ing more snore money to the planter when it sells but exports as well as domestic sales have slowed down The other day clay the Galveston Galves- Galves Galveston Galveston ton cotton colton exchange reported the sale of but ono one bale of or cotton in inn inn ina n a days day's trading when normally thousands of at bales change hands Cotton spinners are looking to lo other countries for cotton and getting it at lower prices T The e extent to which the BrazIlIan Brazilian Brazil BrazIl- ian growing cotton-growing industry has developed is amazing With cheap labor and cheap land the Brazilians Brazilians Brazilians Bra Bra- can raise cotton for a fraction fraction frac frac- rae rae- tion of what it costs here What seems seem to be of equal importance is that there is a movement of the American cotton textile te tUe Industry in industry In- In to Brazil Whole plants are ara being moved d bodily there Foreign Markets Disappearing There arc many reasons behind these ehan changes cs One of oC the more important has been the action of many foreign countries in raising their tariff rates rales and establishing establishing establish establish- ing quotas on American food Yet the United States has high tariff rates and still tho the food imports arrive in iii increasing quantities The question which is interesting interesting interesting interest interest- ing many observers of the situation situation situation situa situa- tion is how far America is to lose her foreign markets for food food- stuffs Allied is the question is isit Isit isit it desirable to raise the price level so high that foreigners cannot or orwill orwill orwill will not buy American produce The United States must continue to import those foodstuffs not produced here Coffee te tea bananas bananas bananas ba ba- ba- ba nanas and sugar are the outstanding outstanding ing Eng products Sugar of course is produced here and attempts have been made to protect the domestic domes domes- tic ie production more adequately But the Louisiana cane and the western beet sugar arc are not nearly enough to fill the domestic de dc demand donand do- do mand nand and to place a higher tariff on Cuban and other foreign sugar would mean to tax Americans American on their whole consumption in order to o give domestic producers a better better bet bet- ter cr price An example of what has been happening may zany be bo gained from examination of concrete figures In n the period 1924 to 1929 exports of f bacon to Great Britain alone amounted to pounds and of hams to pounds In the period 33 1932 exports exports ex ex- ports orts of bacon were pounds and exports of hams 67 pounds Paying Debts in Food Wheat exporting shows the same ame story In 21 1920 1 total American Amerlean Amer Amer- lean ican can wheat exports amounted to bushels This was a peak eak year but for a decade after hat that the average sales of wheat broad abroad amounted to Bushels Last year wheat exports were verc down to lo bushels These rhese examples could be e expand expand- id cd d with reference to other agricultural agricultural tural ural products The drouth and the curtailment program of the A A A have combined com com- med to reduce the supply of agricultural agri agri- cultural products and there would no lot in fl any event have been so nuch much to export this year The American people arc going to need iced their produce The interest interest- rig fact which emerges from this whole picture of declining farm exports is that the foreign marets markets markets mar mar- ets are disappearing and there will vill not be the incentive to pro- pro luce duce It seems to mark another step tep in the turn of the United States from an agricultural to an industrial nation It is possible hat that some system may be worked out ut whereby the food imports which are coming in in gaining volume ma may be paid for by using credits That means that foreign countries owe the United States huge sums sumsA A scheme might be DC e worked out whereby these debts could be paid in food But Buthe he the American farmers farmer's position his ito ils market would not be improved improved im ira- proved roved by such an arrangement 1 them I What I think Ill I'll leave unsaid Copyright 1935 Edgar A. A Guest |
