Show N o YO Y HERALD HERALD AND AND HEARST 1 5 POLLS i GIVE WILSON ELECTORAL VOTE I II I PR I 0 NT TAK TAKES LEAD lA I 2 2672 2 1 l To TH Drift Has Been Steadily Moving in Democratic Nominees Nominee's Direction StraW Ballots Show t Bj BY T Tb e Telegram 8 l News S Tit NEW MEW YORK Nov 5 S S Sj day The The New Y York Heral HeraT this morning lg publishes its f fin i na nation I 1011 wide poll pail of the the- r. r pr j situation as Copyright 1916 by the Ne New NeVI Yer He Herald Merald ald Company AM 1 r re e The The-H The Phe presents iier 1 11 the fhe final instalment of straw vote canvass I f presidency In the thc quarter of a m votes cast President Vilson Wilson is is- is the lead The Tue situation rests on a bat bar ance so so delicate that a hairs hair's weight Inay wing swing it in eithe direction ro the V vote it might be i 1 ly- ly tt that tt with wath a little nd added cd the rif which has been steadily Continued r on Dace 2 HERALD AND HEARST HEARST I POLLS GIVE LEAD TO 10 WILSON I Hairs Hair's airs air's Weight May Swing Presidential Election in Either Direction I I Continued from page 1 Iner ing In the presidents president's direction might grow into what political writers haver have I r termed a landslide MAY BE BACK DRIFTOn DRIFT On the other hand a back drift at atthe atthe atthe the eleventh hour might result in the election of Mr Hughes by a small margin margin margin mar mar- gin m in inthe the h popular vote of Important states giving a a. preponderance of Votes In the electoral college States in which the test voting have given 50 60 per pel cent or more to the president president president dent have a total of electoral votes The solid South the South the states of Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Florida Flori lori lorida da Georgia Alabama Mississippi Louisiana Louisiana Lou Lou- Arkansas and Texas Texa which Texas which will willbe willbe be for tor the Democracy has el electoral Votes These two figures make a total of which is one forty-one more than the necessary for election The Herald Herad has had taken Its straw vote customary Care In some Instances in instances instances In- In stances the conclusions which might b be drawn from the figures res are in itt contradiction con con- to the opinions ot of the leader leaders lead tead- er ers era of both parties and nd are at variance with personal judgment of correspondents correspond correspond- who have personally visited dif dlf- dif dif- fer ferent nt states The Herald presents these straw vote figures for precisely wh t they are worth They speak for themselves as they have In all previous campaigns WILSONS WILSON'S GAINS The Herald has been told that there has been a check in the swing toward the president that the Republicans who were alarmed ten days ago have every reason now for a feeling of confidence The straw vote ha has not r registered a marked drift toward Mr Hughes al although although although al- al though there are indications that there has ha peen een a slight check heck i in the rate of the the presidents president's gain 1 Of Ot the total votes cast up up to and in including including in- in the seventh and last week of the canvass Mr Hughes has received per ver cent In the first weeks week's totals he he received per cent In the first week he received per cent In other words the president has climbed steadily jn in the tile straw vote yote Mr 1 Hughes has fallen behind from week to week HUGHES I BACKWARD Likewise in the division of the r Progressive Pro vote the nominees have move moved mod In opposite directions Mr Hughes backward i the president forward IntHe Inthe In the latter iatter part o of September b r Mr 11 Hughes was getting 80 0 per cent cent of the progressive vote and aM the president 17 per cent cent n the final week which for forthe forthe the actual casting of test teat ballots ended on Thursday y M Mr Hughes was l receivIng Ing per cent and th the president per cent The remainder went went- to Mr 1011 Benson Socialist nominee A slight check cheek in the shift of Progressives to President Wilson was Indicated in the final week STILL CLAIM UTAH States which in the test balloting have given 50 per cent or or m more re to M Mr Hughes have an electoral vote of With Wit Pennsylvania 38 and Utah 4 added to that the total is In the first week of the straw vote campaign out of votes otes Mr Hughes received a a. majority of ot 1649 By using only a third of California's top heavy straw vote In the calculation calculation- California's vote being disproportionate to the rest of the country country Mr Hugh Hughes Hughee eft would have had a plurality of In the second week by figuring CalIfornia California Cal Cal- the same way Mr Hughes would have havea u a lead lend of 1461 instead of In th the third week the figures would have been 1250 instead of In the fourth week the figures would have been 1132 instead of In the fifth week week there there would have been a a. Wilson plurality of In Instead Instead instead In- In stead of ot a Hughes plurality of In the sixth week there was a Wilson Wilson Wilson Wil Wil- son plurality of ot instead of ot a Hughes lead of In the fInal week the Wilson plurality ty iy would have been teen 7 72 Instead of 2672 2673 FAIR COMPARISONS The Herald Herad M makes kes these se comparisons because It would woud not noi s seem seem em entirely f fair to incorporate in the grand totals what amounted to a tenth of the total vote cast In Jn the thirty six states California's California's Cali Call fornias fornia's share sharer was about tenth one-tenth and it Jt showed an overwhelming majority majority majority ma ma- each wee week for for forthe the Republicans Likewise if it the vote of ot California be reduced to its proportionate e figure the percentage of ot the total vote as athe The canvass canvass canvass can can- vass closed going to the president would be per cent and to Mr Hughes per ver cent Mr ML Benson getting getting gettins get- get ting tins the difference In all aU the Republican estimates n- n Il and Michigan are placed in the Republican columns Michigan columns Michigan unreservedly unreservedly Illinois with the admission that the women may overturn It it With the twenty-nine twenty votes from Illinois and the fifteen from Michigan the figure would be increased to two I more than the number needed to elect I FIGHT FOR OHIO 1 Other states which Republicans say will go Democratic only In tn the event of an almost unprecedented political upheaval are Washington with seven electoral votes Wisconsin with thirteen thirteen thir thir- teen and Minnesota with twelve The Democrats make confident claims of having the three though In the minds of the political managers there Is fa doubt not only about Washington but about West Virginia Nebraska Wisconsin and Maryland The Republicans are making a ahard hard fight to keep Ohio Inthe Inthe In Inthe the Republican column but they have slenderer hopes there thaw In some ome other states They Ther confidentially ex expect expect ex- ex to have the fifteen votes from Indiana though there is doubt in that state with the odds favoring the Re publicans ns DECIDING STATES The states which will decide the Contest con con- test teat are New York Ohio Indiana II- II linola Michigan Wisconsin and Min Mm There is 18 a a. possibility that a aone an anone one goes New goes New York excePt they they they will all go They have always been strong Republican states I IThe The Th Herald Herad straw vote indications are I that New York and Indiana will be Republican and that the others will be Democratic Th There may be honest doubt about them all Michigan never went Democratic The only only time time in its history that it away from its Republican moorings was in 1912 when it went for Roosevelt Its majorities have ranged all the way from to Republicans declare that only a political earthquake Can dan place Michigan l In the Democratic column WILSON IN DETROIT The Heralds Herald's straw vote Shows a majority majority majority ma ma- of in Detroit for President Wilson a majority of outside De De- De- De troit From all the Herald Herad can learn there is a marked trend among workers workers work work- ers in Michigan to the democracy The Influence of pf Henry F Ford rd who Is working working work work- in ing for tile the e President Is a potent fac fac- tor There are new workmen from all over he country In the automobile automobile automobile auto auto- mobile factories of Detroit Flint and Lansing Democrats Democrats' hesitate to lay Jay claim to the state although they say the tile labor drift has been heavy In their direction and that the pacifist sentiment sentiment sentiment senti senti- ment has been Very helpful to their ticket Latest information from this state is that the tremendous natural majority of the Republican arty ought to show the tide of Wilson sen sen- The party varty is using every bit bitof bitof bitof of its energy to do so ILLINOIS PIVOT By many of those thos who have studied tills this most interesting presidential sit sit studied studied it from personal ob observation ob- ob s rather than straw votes votes votes-Il- Il Illinois is regarded as the real piVot In Inthe inthe the situation Normally it is solidly Republican Its pluralities have run from 94 to Democrats concede concede concede con con- cede that Jf If only the men voted there would be a a. Republican majority of ot or mote mole But more than half a a. million wom women n will vote vot for the the- first time A month ago from all t that at co could ld be ascertained they were overwhelmingly overwhelmingly overwhelm overwhelm- Ingy for President nt Wilson on the contention contention contention con con- that he kept us out but of w war r. r The Republicans had done rio no work among them When they discovered the drift among the female electorate and learned that the Democrats were organizing the working women In all the cities s the Republicans became ac active active ac ac- tive and nd they now r report port that the women will divide ab about ut as the men mendo mendo do WOMEN POLLED The Herald polled 2940 women in different different dif dlf dif dif- ferent parts of the state A majority of In this group were for the President Pres Pres- ident Out of straw votes taken In Chicago Cook county the President received a a. majority of Among voters polled excl exclusive sive of women in inthe Inthe inthe the down state section there was a majority for the President of Although Although Al Al- though every effort t was made to have this vote properly apportioned among the various classes of voters the criticism criticism iti ci-iti- cism might be made that the polls were taken too frequently In the cities and too infrequently in the r rural ral com com- The political leaders are aie re pretty well agreed that President Wilson will wUl have havea a male m majority in Cook county and that the Republican ticket will wUl receive a much larger plurality in the down downstate downstate downstate state section That has been the way the vote usually has divided GUESS AS TO WOMEN The women have the whip hand in inthe inthe inthe the state and both campaign managers admit that so far as they are concerned their statements as to what th the women will wUl do is mere guesswork The republicans believe that with some the women will do as the women voters have Invariably done In other states where they vote vote- vote vote-ollow follow ollow their husbands brothers or fathers and merely accentuate the political lines which have haye always divided the states The great manufacturing and fanning fann larm- ing state of the central West with Its twenty nine twenty electoral votes In the es estimation estimation estimation es- es of the political managers easily ens- ens ily Uy may the election Then genuine genuine genuine gen gen- estimates of both camps leaves the two nominees by so narrow narrow nar oar row a margin that twenty-nine twenty votes could give either th the le lead d if the es estimates estimates estimates es- es are corre correct t. t It Is believed th that t at least half baIt a million million mil soil lion women women will vote in Illinois The number may run run as nigh high as It may may run as l low vi as as The very heavy heaY registration among this new branch of the el elect r le le however r. r would indicate that the women will cast calt a heavy vote LABOR FOR WILSON There is a drift of labor votes to the president in Illinois but the indications are that it is not so marked mared as the campaign ent enters rs its final stage as It was soon after atter the theAd Ad Adamson law was enact enacted d. d There IS s a very ery large railway railway rail raU- way vote In the state Chicago being the worlds world's busiest railroad center and andIn andIn andin In some of the other cities such 8 as Peoria Joliet Jollet East St St. Louis Alton Rockford Rock Island Springfield Decatur Decatur Decatur De- De and Galesburg there are many railway many of them normally normally nor nor- mally Republicans who wo ho declare they will vote for the president on the one issue of ot the Adamson bill N New w York oc occupies upie a a. highly important import Import- ant place In the calculations of ot all the political managers With Its forty-five forty electoral votes it if has decided other elections The Heralds Herald's straw vote in indicates indicates in- in that the tile Republican strong strong- lipIds holds outside th the l will metropolis le op give a large but reduced plurality for the I Republican ticket In the tM city the president 63 per cent of ot the total straw vote G. G O. O P. P SUPPORT FAILS In the upstate sections Hughes re received received re- re 55 65 per cent The vot t in the seven fifty counties o outside New York City exceeds the New York City vote by approximately and If the ratio of division In the straw vote should be preserved in the actual balloting balloting bal bal- toting two days hence Hughes should have a a. majority considerably in excess of in the state The straw votes indicate a falling I off In the normal Republican majorIties majorities majorities major major- in many of the up state section Republicans admit that there will be fe I I reduction They assert that this reduction reo re- which will be due to the d defection de- de de 1 of Republican farmers who r ere remarkably prosperous because of ot high prices for crops and because they have been won by the slogan he kept us out of war will wilt not be large enough to t be endangered by the normal Tammany majority o of the five boroughs of Ne Nei York Cit City 4 f |