Show 1i i 1 TE CUINESE CRISHS I I JI I By Archibald R Colquhoun j i 1 Author of China in TransformatIon The Overland China Etc V All Rights Reserved V < VIII IS CHINA BREAKING TJPP a There is a general impression In this country that the computations and changes which are now convulsing the far East are mailers of recent years ilia the Hlluatlon hns come to a head with alarming suddenness and that it was out of the power of any nation to be prepared for the present contingencies contin-gencies So far perhaps as the actual form which the crisis has taken is concerned con-cerned the siege of the legailons It may have been Impossible to foresee I the event though we know that many I of the Peking residents Including especially I I espe-cially the French priests had shrewd forebodings and that the Ministers themselves were betrayed Into the position posi-tion by an overconfidence in the unanimity unani-mity of theIr Governments But the general trend of events has for years past been plain and the denouement has been predicted with no uncertain voice by several who have studied those event The whole movement began forty years ago whenalmost tmno llced Russia made her flist appearance appear-ance on the Pacific From the same parlod dates the renascence of Japan and her evolution Bv degrees the Eu rdpean powers appeared on the scene these are the outside factors which have influenced the development of affairs a af-fairs In China and H will be seen that they have taken close on half a century to come to a climax There are two r chief factors which have brought about the present condition of Chinainternal decadence and foreign aggression INTERNAL DECADENCE 1 rho former has been already indicated 5 indi-cated In the article on the Government of China It will be remembered that the ruling class Is composed of the military mil-itary clan of ilanchus who have no territorial ter-ritorial or ancestral Interest In the country and are regarded by the people us blo suplwrH Corruption is rife z in the official class as Is Inevitable where the government system Is I rotten at the core communications are neg 1 lected buildings and bridges allowed > to fall Into decay nothing Is done for the Improvement of the country The Manchus had one Idea to keep China asa as-a preserve where they could live and fatten on the work of others without interference from outside Under such ft system which Jacked all real control r while saving face by outward observance observ-ance of many ceremonies disaffection has spread unchecked Secret societies forbidden by law flourish and the system sys-tem of literary examination corrupt and cumbrous and out of date Hoods t the country with men who unable to obtain Government posts and educated above the standard of the mercantile class are absorbed Into the great body of neordoweejs and unusually un-usually numerous In China These elements without any interfer ence from outside would have Inevitably Inevita-bly I brought about a collapse or revolution revo-lution in China for it must bo remembered remem-bered that they have been In operation and slowly working toward a point for hundreds of years China is without doubt a longlived empire but it could not be expected to last forever Vc have heard recently much comparison xbf China as the Sick bran of Asia o the other longlived Invalid of Tur key but the situations are not parallel Only one power was interested In the demise of Turkey which has been kept In being by a posse of other powers whereas there Js not one but half a dozen do-zen power anxious for the I corpse of China and no oneespcclally and really Interested in keeping her intact This Is putting the matter roughly but is essentially es-sentially the truth FOREIGN AGGRESSION As regards foreign aggression this has moved with extreme rapidity since the ChlnoJapanese war of 1S95 when the conflict between Western science as applied by the Japanese and the antiquated methods of Chinese routine ended in the entire discomfiture of the latter J The dwarf dealt a fatal blow at the giant Japan however merely I aillicIpaled by a few years the tactics of Russia and she was not allowed to enjoy the fruits of her victory It Is well to remember what happened hap-pened A bond was formed by three great continental powers Russia France and Germany Great Britain looked on while Japan was forcibly ejected from the mainland Advantage I was taken by the chaos in China to secure to these European powers certain cer-tain concessions and rights In the Celestial Ce-lestial empire Bit by bit the country was parceled out into spheres of interest inter-est and all the best harbors secured on I ninetynine years leases by the great European powers It Is useless to disguise dis-guise the meaning of this division whatever may be tho actual status of a power in her sphere of Influence at present it is merely the first step toward I to-ward the establishment of a protectorate protector-ate From that to occupation Is but a I short step THE MISSIONARY QUESTION Besides these aggressions there has been the missionary question a long standing thorn in the fish to China The missionaries have certainly I been employed for political purposes by more than one power France first and latterly Germany Whatever may be the faults on either side there is the same element of the Inevitable In col I lisions about religious propagandists I I They are always and everywhere enti tled to the protection of their Hags if I their mission is sanctioned by their Governments The Christian religion commands the conversion of the heathen heath-en the missionaries go from a sense of duly and are met by a not unnatural resistance from people whose fundamental funda-mental Ideas of propriety they are probably outraging at every step Then there Is the murder of a missionary and many of his Noel Germany de mantled and obtained a province as are a-re ress for such outrages and there is a certain method in this though It is I not exactly an Ideal vengeance for a murdered minister of the gospel of forgiveness for-giveness Whatever may be the ethics of the question Germany has begun career In China In which she cannot stop She has to maintain herself with the strength of her arm and must do so or be squeezed out France has obtained ob-tained a great hold on the south by similar though more subtle methods Besides the missionaries of recent years there has sprung up a numerous class of far greater danger to China for their Governments cannot fail to uphold them These are the concession hunters seeking permission to exploit l 1 mines build railways etc sOt s-Ot these from every country in Europe t and from America arc scattered over i the empire Their claims and interests l though regarded with dislike and dis i trust by the Chinese cannot be dlsre gardeJ Some have gone beyond the r concession stage as for Instance the i PekingJlankau railway and questions are already arising asto the military I protection oC these lines The same will occur with the enormous mining ven I tures in various parts of the country I The question arises whether with 1 nuch a condition of affairs the powers already In China the conflicting Interests Inter-ests the distrust manifested toward I one and all by the Chinese and their Jealousies among themselvesIt is possible pos-sible to regard China as sllll an Independent Inde-pendent empire or whether she is not already sliced alive to quote the Chinese themselves THE YELLOW PERIL I Recent events have focussed the at I tention of theworld on China and from I an entire apathy as to all that concerned I con-cerned her and a contempt for her importance I im-portance in the world question wo have I Jumped suddenly to the other extreme and are confrontedIn the press by the yellow peril in its widest development develop-ment The Boxer rising and the artful and unsuccessAil attempts of the Empress Em-press Dowager to retrieve her falling J position have been magnified into a great rational rising of the 100000000 of Chinese Events have proved the inaccuracy of this estimate and of the statements as to the renascence of China as a military power The fact is that China Is = a commercial country she lacks the essentials of success in I war cohesion organization and milj tary instinct I These may come with foreign guidance guid-ance but they are not Indigenous The Manchus have done all the fighting I since 1CJ4 acid have only succeeded because be-cause they confronted adversaries less versed in war than themselves They are a decadent raceand have lost their prestige entirely Nothing succeeds oven In China like success and nothing noth-ing is so disastrous as failure After the Japanese war and their recent defeats de-feats by the allies I have little fear of I the ManchuChlnese army So far from being a national rising I the socalled Boxer movement has led to a split Jn the Chinese camp itself I The action of the central and southern I Viceroys and of the people under their jurisdiction has clearly shown the I cleavage that exists between the north I and south It Is the military Manchu north versus the commercial Chinese south Now that the powers have arrived ar-rived at Peking and have accomplished the common task that of relieving the legations what will they do WITAT WILL THE POWERS DO Will they combine unanimously combine com-bine to prop up the tottering empire Will they unite to compel the reform of the Manohu Government or will they reinstate the Empress Dowager and let her go on her own way as before be-fore I foreEach of these courses presents Insuperable Insu-perable difficulties to one or other power and the first and last even if accepted for the time would merely I stave off the difficulty to such a time that the death blow may be inflicted more completely by certain powers 1 whose arrangements will then be perfected per-fected I To understand what is likely to occur we must remember that the powers in China fall naturally into two distinct groups with a chasm between Those l groups are committed to policies absolutely abso-lutely irreconcilable In one we find I Russia France and Germany now iS I In 1895 pledged to uphold the sphere I policy with more or less closed doors I An examination of the colonial policy of these powers will demonstrate very I clearly what will happen in their respective re-spective spheres In each we shall have restricted tariffs monopolies and so forth In the second group we have Britain the United States and Japan whose Interests In-terests He In the preservation of the open door This may < be only possible t r f RONJE AT ST HELENA 1 r L I I i q iIIIIfr r i I I h L I I l 1 11 It Sl jT1fl I I i 19 i 1 1 I t t I I I I I tt I I I r c I I f 0 I 1 3i I li jr smt u r ffr U 1 I 7 iiIr11 frI 1 J MtW TpfTT i vrwJ JowSJjM ht > I 3 K FF + iIZrv r 4l I I a M1 A h Ill l k S e 1 h 1 I + G l Lt 7 N w Fatuous Boer General and His Devoted Partner in Captivity I Hero is an inlprfilingr nan lnJ study of Gen Cronjc the celebrated lender of the burghers and his faithful vlf as they appear today on time Island of SL Helena where they arc kept In duress b r I mho British Government The Boer < camp Is on the top of u hill called Deadwood Plain It Is a healthy spot and the southeast trades blow constantly It Them Is no sickness among either the soldier the Tlir irli lnn1 l ovcr among or Boers The original garrison of the Island Is from a black West India I regiment flfY linvo nothing to do with the Boers who aro guarded entirely by the Gloucester regiment Llcul Col Evans commanding Tho officers of the regiment and tho Boor officers all of whom have time Liberty of tho Island oii parole fralernlzo In Jamestown and Inlkabout Iho events of the war I by the establishment of sphere under their protection but these spheres will remain an open market to the world The first group Is bound for the preservation preser-vation of its OAvn prestige to prop up the Manchu dynastyml easy puppet The second group to obtain the reforms which are essential for free and open trade and the development of the country coun-try are bound to press a real central government which can only be in the heart of China J The Individual elements which represent repre-sent these different policies in China Itself are roughly speaking tho Empress Em-press Dowager the Manchu clansmen and the Chinese Viceroy LI Hung Chang These are antireform and pro Russian On the other hand we have the Emperor Em-peror or he still exists and the young China party including many of the leading provincial officials who arc in favor of reform and inclined to rely on Britain America and Japan for support sup-port and guidance The Empress Dowager Dow-ager and her creatures have compromised compro-mised themselves hopelessly in the recent re-cent outrage which fact should be in I favor of the policy of the second group We come to the question with which 1 I we began is China breaking up and a consideration of the circumstances leads l us to the conclusion that her dismemberment dis-memberment has already begun and that It had in its causes certain elements ele-ments of the Inevitable which are still and more strongly In play and render any arrest of the process Impossible I have endeavored to give In these articles some idea of the conditions internal and external which have culminated cul-minated in the present crisis and wiSh out actually entering Into the discus sian of future policies which are outside out-side the scope of these articles I have indicated certain points the right appreciation ap-preciation of which will help to formulate formu-late some idea of what our position is and how we should preserve IL My strongest plea is that we have to play a part in the far East Let us balance up the Interests which compel us to do so and see that our action Is I commensurate with those Interests It Is no use stamping things We have l tried that in the far East with disastrous i disas-trous effects For Britain It Is not merely a commercial I com-mercial questionvast though that be I We have fal more important Interests at stake Our Eastern empire our very existence as an Asiatic power may hang upon the decision of the next few weeks The End I |