Show COAL Will LAST TWO CENTURIES No Person Now Living Will Witness Exhaustion of Sup Supply Supply ply in This Country CAREFUL ESTIMATE MADE DEMAND MAY BE REDUCED IN FUTURE R E ESpecial Special to The Thc Herald Washington Aug now living will see the day when the coal coni supply of the United States Sates is exhaust exhausted ed The director of tle United States geological sune survey Is authority for his statement but he says much more Ile He says that assuming the production of an anthracite continues at Its present rate which he questions the known supply in inthe I the United States would last probably 60 or even OO years The production o of bituminous coal Is bound to increase but there Is no danger of the exhaustion of the supply Inside of years and the Is that It will last much longer There are arc various factors to be considered con considered In on the life of our coal deposits Improved oed machinery and improved methods will decrease the waste In coal production as the more re remote remote mote deposits are the price will necessarily advance thereby tending to reduce consumption and to force a more economic use of the fuel But what Is equally Important electricity Is fast tak takIng taking Ing the place of steam as a motive power and Is correspondingly reducing the do de demand domand mand for coal for steaming purposes Oil is being substituted for coal so Is gasoline so will other fuels enter the thc market All these competitors will tend to reduce the demand for coal and an any such reduction tends to prolong the lIfe of the coal Industry I No Danger of Exhaustion All this goes to offset sensational reports re reports ports that have recently been given cur currency currency rency to the effect that the United States In a few years ears will face a fuel famine due to the exhaustion of its coal supply sup pi Officials of the survey sur ve vey have been lIeen cited as authorities for these sensational stories In the hope that erroneous Impressions derived from these somewhat misleading articles ma mabe may maybe be corrected Dr DI George Otis Smith di director director rector of the survey has given ghen out an authoritative statement prepared by b 31 1 R Campbell In charge of economic geology of fuels and E W V Parker coal eoal mining expert and statistician The ar articles tides as orIginallY published represented the judgment of the surveys experts but the trouble has arisen from Incomplete quotations made from them which have omitted essential statements The fol following lowing authorized statement prese presents the facts as the they are The experts of the geological sune survey wish to emphasize the fact that the un uncertainty certainty In predicting for the future rests upon many unknown factors chief among which Is the future rate of In Increase increase crease In consumption During the last fifty years ears production has Increased enor enormously the output for each decade being nearly arl double that of the preceding one on and If this rate were to continue uninterruptedly uninterruptedly we might look for Tn exhaustion ex exhaustion of the bituminous coal supply In inthe the century Against this however must lie be set a number of coun counteracting counteracting influences Improvements In mining methods are increasing the amount of coal recovered an and Improved methods of consumption are Increasing Its efficiency as fuel ruel As the more ac accessible accessible coal becomes exhausted and the deeper and more expensively mined beds have hae to be worked the higher cost will necessitate further increased Increase economy econom in mining methods and greater grenter efficiency In utilization Trillions of Tons The facts are that an estimate of our bituminous coal col fields prepared with much care by b Mr Campbell shows that the total quantity of coal stored in the ground was about short tons From this supply there have been extracted according to Mr parkers fig figures figures ures to the close of 1906 1006 about short tons and estimating a recovery of 66 2 per centor in other words assuming assum assumIng Ing that for every ton of coal mined there Is half hal a ton represents an exhaustion of nearly nearh tons or only about of 1 per pcr cent of the total supply We Ve produced and consumed con consumed In 1006 In round numbers short tons which h represents say tons of for our practice In Inthis inthis this regard Is Improving with each year ear and less Iss is lost per ton mine mined than formerly At this rate If no Increase were to be allowed for the bituminous coal supply would last about years Taking Into account however the probable probable able rate first of Increase and later of decrease In production Mr Campbell and Mr Parker ae ace of the opinion that the bulk of the cheaply mined bituminous coal will b be exhausted within years ears but when the period of decreasing pro production sets In the need for fuel will doubtless be supplied In considerable de degree degree gree by the utilization o of other forces of nature thus extending the life of the bl bi bituminous coal fields Anthracite Region So far as the anthracite region of Penn Pennsylvania sylvania Is concerned predictions of ex exhaustion exhaustion have bave been based mainly on es estimates estimates made by the Penns Pennsylvania geo geological geological logical survey which shows that there were there originally In the ground about long IonS tons of coal and that for foreve eve every ton of coal mined one and onS half tons were ere lost This would mean that only SOO tons ot of the original sup supply supply ply were recoverable To the close ot of 1906 1900 the production has amounted to practically tons which would leave tons still available and this at the rate of oC production during the last four years about tons q year would last about ninety years Later estImates made by Mr Ir William Griffith of Scranton Pa placed the quantity of le coal In the ground at the thc close ot of 1596 at 50 oO long tons Since then a little over tons have been mined leaving say tons avail available available able which at the rate ot of tons tonsa a year ear would last about seventy years Jears But against both of these must be set the fact that production will not be maln tamed at the present rate until the coal Is gone Maximum of Production The annual anthracite production has about reached Its m When It does begin to decrease the rate will probably probably ably be slow Moreover with Improved mining methods and Increased prIces of coal beds are now being worked which were not included In iii the available re rc reserves serves when the estimates were prepared In addition to this the resent present Is such that probably CO 60 per cent Is now recovered instead of 40 per cent under I the old methods This saving alone would extend the life ot of the region I The utilization of small sizes of anthracite I cite for steaming purposes which has In Increased Increased creased rapidly within the last few years ears has bas not only reduced r the waste In mining but is making l the recovery of usable fuel ful for the great culm b banks that stood as unsightly monuments to the wasteful methods of former years To what degree these factors will extend the life of the anthracite field It Is not to sa say but the conditions now existIng indicate no danger or of haus tion during the present generation A conservative statement Is that soon the annual production and consumption of an anthracite anthracite will decrease c gradually so that the supply will probably pro ably last for or r years ears |