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Show Volume XI THE Issue XI OGDEN VALLEY NEWS March Utah’s Small Businesses Benefiting From Solid U.S. Economic Growth Highlights ~ ~ ~ ~ The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah rose to 102.5 in February 2005, up from a revised 101.9 in January 2005. Utah’s unemployment rate was estimated at 4.6% in the latest month, up from the prior month’s revised 4.5% rate. Total Utah employment is up an estimated 35,500 jobs during the past 12 months. U.S. economic growth in 2004’s final quarter was revised sharply higher in the U.S. Commerce Department’s first official revision. We expect solid growth to The U.S. economy added 262,000 net new jobs in February, while the unemployment rate returned to 5.4%. Stronger Economic Growth The U.S. Commerce Department’s late January estimate of fourth quarter 2004 U.S. economic growth came in at a 3.1% real (after inflation) annual rate. This was sharply below the consensus view of a 3.7% - 3.8% growth rate. Economists were immediately on the defensive, trying to explain why growth than expected. As a group we looked bad, which is not all that uncommon. On Friday, February 25, the January estimate was revised. You guessed it, a 3.8% real annual rate. The growth rate was revised sharply higher primarily to reflect a stronger U.S. export total and higher corporate investment. One more revision is coming in late March. After that, the Commerce Department will then revise the data again in coming years. Growth for calendar year 2004 was unchanged at a 4.4% real annual rate, the strongest since the 4.5% real growth rate of 1999. We continue to expect growth near a 3.7% - 3.9% real annual rate during this year’s first half, with a modest slowing in following quarters. This year’s second half will feel more impact of a slight slowing of global economic growth. The economy will also feel the impact of more tightening moves by the Federal Reserve, on top of the six 0.25% moves of the past eight months. U.S. GDP growth is a component of the Utah Small Business Index. Utah Employment e Utah unemployment rate—the most heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah—was estimated at 4.6% in the latest month, up from the prior month’s revised 4.5% rate. The current 4.6% rate compared to a jobless rate of 5.7% during the same month one year ago. A lower Utah unemployment rate is a negative contributor to the Index as it implies decreased access to Utah labor. Utah’s unemployment rate averaged 4.7% in 2004, 5.6% in 2003, 6.1% in 2002, and 4.4% in 2001. By comparison, the 3.3% average during 2000 was one of the lowest annual rates since the early 1950s. These rates compare to an average Utah unemployment rate of 3.5% between 1995 and 1999, Total Utah employment rose by an estimated 35,500 jobs (up 3.2%) over the past 12 months, the strongest annualized gain in seven years. This rise compares to a revised gain of 35,100 jobs in the prior year-over-year period. These totals compare to gains averaging 38,000 new jobs annually during the 1994-2000 period. Stronger job gains, leading to greater income creation and rising retail spending, has a positive impact upon Utah’s small businesses and, therefore, the Index. The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 102.5 during February 2005, up from a revised 101.9 during January 2005. The Index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small business owner or manager. A higher Index number is associated with more favorable business “conditions” for Utah’s small businesses. The Index uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base year. The Index also includes revisions to various historical or forecast components as they become available. National Employment The U.S. Department of Labor reported a gain of 262,000 net new jobs in February 2005, above the 225,000 rise expected on Wall Street. The U.S. economy has added more than three million net new jobs since mid-2003. The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.4% in February, up from January’s 5.2% rate, and tied primarily to a rise in the labor force. June 2003’s 6.3% rate was the highest in nine years. Goods producing industries saw a net gain of 55,000 jobs in February, with a gain of 20,000 manufacturing jobs. Construction added 30,000 jobs last month. Service providing industries added 207,000 positions in February, with new jobs in professional and business services and retail sales leading the way. Solid U.S. economic growth suggests that steady employment gains are likely to continue during 2005. We expect a net average gain of 175,000-200,000 net new jobs monthly this year, in line with the 183,000 average monthly gain during 2004. Reasonable job gains should occur even as short-term interest rates continue to rise. The March 2005 Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah will be released on April 5, 2005. Zions. For more information, contact Zions Bank’s Eden Valley Market office at (801) 745-0835. Additional information on Zions Bank is available at <www.zionsbank.com> Page 13 15, 2005 Pathways Selects Three New At Large Members é , Ken IK . pil ig fl By Helene Liebman, Ogden Valley Pathways PaTHWAYS Ogden Valley —— Pathways selected three new at large members of the OVP executive committee at the March meeting. Due to the many qualified candidates who indicated an interest in joining the committee, OVP decided to increase the number from two to three. The following Ogden Valley residents were selected. Ray Corbin lives in Huntsville and has lived in Ogden Valley for over two years. He has a two-year Forestry degree from Lassen College (in California) and a BS in criminology from California State University, Fresno. Ray has worked for the Forest Service for 30 years, and he is now the Patrol Commander for the Intermountain Region. He believes in the trail cause for the county and the Valley. He describes himself as hands-on—not surprising as Ray logged over 20 hours last year in trail construction and maintenance! Ray will help OVP implement an effort to help control invasive weeds in the Valley. Dennis Shaw now lives in Huntsville but lived in Eden for over 30 years with his wife, Dianne, who grew up in Eden. While in Eden, Dennis volunteered five years on the Eden Park Committee and assisted in other church and community activities. He spent his career working for several large companies in the Ogden area before he started his own business. He ran that business for 15 years before he sold it in 2000. Today, nnis is semi-retired, and he still runs a small business and works at farming and raising llamas. Dennis is excited about servicing Ogden Valley Pathways, as he says, “What a great cause for so many—now and in the future!” Barry Swartz has lived in Liberty for two years. Before that, he spent a good chunk of his career in Salt Lake City working as a Civil Engineer for Williams Northwest Pipeline. After retiring from Williams and moving to Ogden Valley, Barry started working for John Lewis at Lewis Homes. In addi- tion, he is on the Board of Directors for the Durfee Creek Homeowners’ Association, and from 2002 to 2003 he was on the Board of Directors of the United Way of Greater Salt Lake. Barry is an outdoor enthusiast—he likes to hike, run, ski, bike, and snowshoe! As an at large member of the OVP executive committee, he will provide his civil engineering expertise to the OVP lead for construction—Dave Holmstrom. Welcome Ray, Dennis, and Barry! Great to have your input and help! Adopt-A-Trail Program Last year was our first full year of trail maintenance, and we logged over 415 hours of volunteer time and worked on seven different trails throughout the Valley. This year we want to expand our efforts with more invasive weed eradication (pulling dyers woad) and get out into other areas in the Valley. We also want to expand our program through what we are calling the Adopt-ATrail program. Under the Adopt-A-Trail program, families, businesses, and groups will adopt a trail or portion of a trail and provide for maintenance, such as trimming back branches, mowing sides when needed, and collecting trash. Some groups may even want to do some simple trail construction or add trail signs or trail head markers. OVP will provide guidelines and training for any interested groups. If you’re interested or want more information, contact Brandon Fuller, at 645-6060 or Helene Liebman at 393-2304. Ogden Valley Pathways April Meeting Our April meeting will be on Wednesday, April 6, at 7:00 p.m. at the Ogden Valley Library. Please come and hear a presentation from the Forest Service on invasive weeds in Ogden Valley and what you can do to help. In addition, we'll give an update on our construction on Eden Trail and East Eden Pathway, talk about our 2005 trail maintenance schedule. If you have any news or want more information, contact Helene Liebman at 393-2304. We hope to see you on the April 6! Paul L. Judd The only name in Valley Real Estate you'll ever need to know. Experience Counts Count on Me! 801-814-5667 Cell 801-745-6000 Office www.Pauljudd.net website pauljudd@mstar2.net Real tate ight! ae ; ELC M ya ual i lS mes from $260,000 Your Winter Ski Chalet. Three Family Ski Resorts. All One Hour from Salt Lake! at Wolf Creek Resort Ogden Valley * 18 year Multi Million Dollar producer * Broker/Manger Great American Realty * 20-year Valley Resident GREAT _ A MERICAN} | have represented buyers and sellers in the purchase and sale of hundreds of Ogden Valley properties. e Bob Whitney 801-205-7111 Marketed by Watts Group Follow Signs from Wolf Creek Club House One Mile East to Trappers Ridge Models Open Daily Except Sunday 801-272-7111 / www.trappersridge.com Visit me at my office in Eden at the Great American Realty Building located at 5460 East 2200 North Eden (Across the street from the Eden General Store and Eden Park) AWatts Enterprises Community Kevin Wat s Architects wm Un Close to Snowbasin, Powder Mountain and Nordic Valley Ski Resorts and Area Snowmobiling Trails any - BS |