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Show 26 INKLINGS by Scaevola The Prince Column Energy and the political master The House of Representative has labored mightily, and brought forth H.R. 8444, its version of the Carter energy package. The Senate, less tidy in its procedures, has now begun to work on the package in small pieces. How they will all be put together in the end, no one knows. Before the Senate completes its work, perhaps we should take a moment to assess the energy situation, and forecast what might happen should the Congress, as has happened before, be unable to come to agreement. Conveniently to our purposes, consultant Arthur D. Little has just completed a study of the energy picture. The study was undertaken at the behest of industry, but there is no reason to think ADL has sold its soul. Heaven knows industry is as willing to pay for bad news as for good. In this case the news, if neither good nor bad, is very interesting. ADL concludes that, should the energy program not be enacted, Carter's energy goals would be achieved anyway. To be slightly more accurate, it is everyones consensus that Carters goals are not attainable under his own proposals, but ADL concludes that no legislation at all will come as close to achieving them as complete enactment. How can such a thing be? It is inconceivable, in this day and age, that anything can be done by any agency other than the federal government. What strange and powerful force is at work here? As usual, it is the market, the old invisible hand. Energy prices have been increasing in recent years and, as economists used to be able to tell you, when prices go up, demand drops. Where the demand is inelastic, more efficient use of resources results. And that is what the ADL study found. Here are a few specific findings from the study: 1. New buildings can be built 30-5- 0 percent more energy efficient, without first cost penalties, and are now being built that way; 2. Some retrofitting is taking place, though that is more difficult and more costly than new construction; 3. Voluntary appliance efficiency standards are being produced by the market, resulting in energy savings of 0 percent. 4. Three-fourth- s of the industrial energy is consumed by only about 12 industries. These have already taken the most obvious steps to convserve energy, and are now forecasting energy savings in the 0 percent range; 5. Automobile manufacturers are already ahead of presently mandated auto efficiency standards, and will be unaffected by the Carter proposals, as he well knew when he proposed them; 6. Even without the proposed incentives to coal production, 1,1. tons of coal will be produced (federal environmental impact statements permitting) in 1985. Carter had called BY John Prince 5-3- 15-2- for 1.2 billion tons; What transitions to coal can take place already have, or will, without passage of Federal legislation. Coal will become more competitive as a boiler fuel as prices of oil and gas continue to rise; 8. That rise will take place very nicely without the Carter tax proposals. It will be helped along by OPEC pricing policies, thus providing a powerful incentive to develop alternative (and cleaner) energy sources. What can we conclude from even this brief study? We can conclude that Carter is a political mastermind. He has enunciated an intricate series of energy proposals, and called out the troops to fight the moral equivalent of war for them. And all along, he knew he was going to achieve the victory, because the victory does not depend on the battle. The only thing which could rob him of his unearned triumph would be the failure of Congress to act. Maybe we should encourage a Senate filibuster. 7. guess I have to tell you about my new toy. For the last few months Ive been the proud owner of a Sony Betamax home video recording system. If you dont have one you soon will and in a small way it will change your life. Each weekday evening I host an evening talk show on the radio. The program goes from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. and has made it impossible for me to see the evening news on television. Now every night at 5:30 this thing turns itself on. When I get home I simply replay the news when Im ready. Its the Greatest! The best news on television is at 6:00 a.m. on Channel 5 Hughes Rudd is almost worth getting up at 6:00 a.m. for. Almost but not quite. But now I can watch him in the evening too. And I can do all this essentially without commercial interruption. Whenever a commercial comes, I simply stop the tape and fast forward to the start of the program again. With a little practice you are almost able to hit it on the dot. I hope Im not being obnoxious about all this. It isnt as though Im telling you about my new 70 foot yacht. This recorder only costs about $1,000 and its about the best $1,000 I ever spent. I don't , for example, always feel like watching 60 Minutes on Sunday evening at 6:00 p.m. NO problem, I can record it, save it, and watch it when I feel like it. Whats more, when Mike Wallace decides to do one of his cheap shot interview's (some are great) I can fast forward to the next segment. I can even watch one program while recording another! With my new toy a certain amount of lost control is back in my hands. Family hour is no longer a threat. Anyway, Im sure that recording equipment will be standard on television sets in a few years. Think of the impact! What will it do to family hour? movies late As you know, stations run their more in the evening when the children are sleeping. Nothing goes at 3:00 a.m. because all (or most) of us are sleeping. But wont this be a whole new market for stations when we all have recorders? Think of it. 3:00 a.m. one morning as KSL begins to broadcast Deep Throat. Thousands of recorders in Bountiful will turn on! The possibilities are endless. Monday night Football viewed last after Family Home evening. Or Sunday Football after a day in church. I suppose that the most dramatic changes could come in terms of advertising. without Every night I see the evening news essentially commercials. Who will pay for programming when the entire nation has the same capabilities? Or, will the American people simply find it too much of a bother? After all, we all could easily record radio shows to be played back without commercials, but I dont know anyone who I - R-rat- THE NATIONAL ed does it. Somehow I sense that this is bigger that before long the TV recorder is going to produce some dramatic changes. How soon will we be able to rent full length movies to play at home? And the big market Im told is in the world of pornography. If KSL wont run it, will you soon be able to rent it? TV has changed our lives. No one can question that. The TV tape recorder will in the end produce some major changes in TV itself. I think that it is the most dramatic innovation in a most dynamic industry since color came along. - |