Show Forecasters I expect a abig abig big hurricane in October Usha Lee Los Angeles Times Meteorologists examining the conditions that spawned hurricanes Rita and Katrina say there is a strong likelihood another intense hurricane will occur in October And while season late-season storms tend to track eastward toward Florida or dont don't make landfall at all the experts dont don't rule out the possibility of another major storm targeting th the battered Gulf region Researchers also warn that the co country rit rity y should bra brace e for 10 to 40 more years of powerful storms because of a natural ocean cycle now in the midst of the most active hurricane period period period peri peri- od on record This has been the seventh hyperactive year since 1995 said Stan Goldenberg a meteorologist meteorologist meteorologist with the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Not every year is going to be belike belike belike like this one but theres there's going to be plenty of active years to come The hurricane season does not end until Nov 30 and a leading forecast group is predicting predicting predicting pre pre- pre pre- that October will see two hurricanes one of them reaching at least Category 3 3 4 or 5 The chance of that storm m making landfall in the Unit United d States is set at 21 percent said Next Hurricane Cont on Page 9 Next Hurricane Cont Cant from front Philip J. J Klotzbach a member member member mem mem- ber of the tropical storm forecasting team led by William M. M Gray of Colorado State University Klotzbach's forecast does not address where hurricanes hurricanes hurricanes hurri hurri- canes make landfall or whether the Gulf Coast could be a target again Its a tricky business tracking where these storms are going to go Klotzbach said governed a lot lotmore lotmore lotmore more by to day-to-day er However Goldenberg said he would not be surprised surprised surprised sur sur- sur- sur if the Gulf Coast area was hit again because the same conditions that nu nudged g d R Rita ta and Katrina n J toward the area area are in place Goldenberg who helps develop NOAA's early season season season sea sea- son forecasts said he is expecting at least one to three more storms including one major hurricane Hurricane forecasters have their eye on a weather disturbance disturbance disturbance dis dis- dis- dis in the tropics that could be Hurricane Stan he added This season is not over said Goldenberg whose home was destroyed by Hurricane Andrew in 1992 If I was in the Gulf Coast right now Id I'd prepare Even Evena a tropical storm could do a alot alot alot lot of damage Historical patterns show it would be unusual but not impossible for the Gulf Coast to be hit with a major October storm In fall most tropical storms that form near the Bahamas as Rita and Katrina did are steered north by weather patterns that deflect them harmlessly out to sea toward the Bahamas or either coast of Florida said Christopher W. W Landsea a hurricane researcher with the National Hurricane Center in Miami Texas and Louisiana areat are areat areat at much less risk later in the season he said The Colorado State team bases its forecast on an amalgam of pressures wind speeds and ocean temperatures temperatures temperatures tempera tempera- tures from across the globe The weather experts also rely on a simple rule When September is active October tends to be active Klotzbach said Peak hurricane hurricane hurricane hurri hurri- cane activity ends by Oct 10 according to the National Hurricane Center but big storms c can n be seen later in the season Hurricane Mitch a Category 5 storm caused an estimated deaths in Central America with another missing in 1998 after brewing brewing brewing brew brew- ing in the Gulf of Mexico through late October and early November it struck southern Florida as a tropical tropical tropical cal storm on Nov 5 1998 and caused an estimated 40 million in damage Even Atlantic hurricanes that morph into monsters like Katrina start out as weaklings mere waves in inthe inthe inthe the atmosphere or feeble weather systems trailing small rainstorms as they drift west across the open ocean But when they hit deep warm pockets of water moist ocean air is pulled upward condenses into clouds and cools This movement of air produces gusty winds and thunder thunder- storms The energy released by the rain is then pumped back up into the clouds making them rise taller spin faster and grow into the large cyclonic systems that have become so familiar in recent weeks Large patches of warm water are needed to sustain and strengthen hurricanes The area also must be free of wind shear differences in wind speeds at high and low levels of the atmosphere that can shred the storm The storms most dreaded by forecasters are Cape Verde hurricanes These storms which begin as atmospheric disturbances flowing off western Africa and and- known as African Afric Afric an n.- n. waves form near Cape Verde and often grow massive massive massive mas mas- sive as they travel across the Atlantic unimpeded by dryland dry dryland dryland land or cool water Cape Verde hurricanes usually account for a seasons season's most intense storms 85 percent of major Atlantic hurricanes have been of this type What was unusual about Rita and Katrina is that they formed close to US U.S. shores near the Bahamas This means they did not have alot a alot lot of time to grow powerful before hitting land Both storms swelled to Category 5 in the Gulf of Mexico where waters are 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal Forecasters predict that ferocious storms will recur for the next several decades They point to a natural I oce ocean n cycle called the Atlantic Multi scale that causes weather in inthe inthe inthe the tropical Atlantic to seesaw seesaw seesaw see see- saw between cool windy phases and warm periods with slack winds that spawn frequent strong hurricanes These phases are driven by two massive weather patterns patterns patterns pat pat- terns that control monsoon rains over the Amazon andover and andover andover over Africa said Bell The sized continent-sized patterns last for decades and are so dominant they control ocean temperature and wind conditions Bell said I |