Show Avoiding VOl I In I IVOl a Catastrophe a as ro e Of Human uman Error William Villiam H. H Hooke The Washington Post 1 We live on a planet of extremes and cataclysm A year to the day before the Dec 26 tsunami whose death toll has surpassed the Barn Bam earthquake in Iran killed people injured and left home home- less In India the Gujarat earthquake of 2001 resulted in more than deaths and injuries In 1998 Central America lost lives to Hurricane Mitch The 1976 earthquake in China killed Nor are such losses confined confined confined con con- fined to the developing world In 2003 a European heat wave killed about people the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan killed Insured losses worldwide for the 2004 hurricane season came carne to 35 billion the total losses were far higher Heres Here's the sober truth Hurricanes brutal cold fronts and heat waves ice storms and tornadoes cycles of flood and drought and earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are not unforeseeable unforeseeable able interruptions of ty Rather these extremes are the way that the planet we live on does its business Hurricanes in some parts of the world provide a third of ft 1 I the average annual nual rainfall What we call climate is really an average of extremes of heat and cold precipitation and drought And climate change The issue is not the small increments in the averages averages averages aver aver- ages but what lies behind them the projected changes I 1 If c E Ec c- c o co IJ Q o l e 7 f c I o op p j ir I IFor u uc c O CI I For Andrew S. S director of the US U.S. Agency for International Development every day is is a crisis crisis He is pictured here meeting with displaced children during a visit to Sudan After the tsunami struck in South Asia he was also c charged arged with overseeing the million in US U.S. disaster aid to the affected nations 1 I in storm patterns intensity and tracks and and- the altered outlook for floods and drought For island nations or even the United States the impact of a one-foot one change in average sea level over a century can in some respects respects' be accommodated far more i dily the yas t a a h single 6 to foot 15 15 surge sustained for just 24 hours during that hundred years In this connection the geological geological geological geo geo- logical record is not comfort comfort- ing All the evidence from and geology gy suggests that over the long haul the extremes we face will be substantially greater than even the strongest in jn our brief historical record Can we blunt these catastrophes What measures should we take to fo reduce loss of life and suffering mitigate economic and the thenn disruption protect r. r nn ent 1 heir I the face of extreme events There are several Monitor This measure has been discussed repeatedly in the days since Dec 26 Scientific research and technological technological technological tech tech- development have led to great advances in our ability to anticipate the devel devel- track and intensity of many natural hazards and to detect many more In the wake of the latest disaster it is tempting to focus attention on this particular threat threat namely namely by our bur our attention to a tsunami detection system such as that thata developed by Eddie Edde Bernard Bernardj a Jt w at j t 4 nd j eric Atmospheric Administration NOAA But nations of the world need to address the challenge of monitoring the entire range of natural haz- haz See Tsunami continued on page 8 J Drug War continued from page 5 ards in a balanced globally coordinated way Fortunately thanks in large part to retired Vice Adm Conrad the NOAA administrator such a concerted international effort is underway More than 50 nations will be meeting in Brussels Belgium next month to solemnize agreements agreements agreements agree agree- ments governing a decade of cooperation in enhanced global monitoring for public safety economic growth and protection of the environment and ecosystems But for many participating nations the agreements will simply mean changes and adjustments in the use of resources New warning capabilities will not be in place for years years at at least not under current levels of invest invest- ment Here at home Congress and the federal agencies could put meat on the bones of these proposals by increasing increasing increasing ing the funds available Considering that the level of US U.S. investment in such monitoring monitoring monitoring mon mon- and the associated research and services is only about 01 percent of gross domestic product and that weather-sensitive weather sectors agriculture energy transportation transportation transportation trans trans- etc make up a third of our economy this would be a matter of common sense Warn Monitoring doesn't tell the whole story When information on an impending hazard is available to only a afew afew afew few government officials it is virtually useless The warning warning warning warn warn- ing must be in the hands of the public those public those of us in harms harm's way For many events such as earthquakes and tsunamis the warning time is too short to rely on the hand- hand off of information between intermediaries Nations must pay more attention to technical technical technical cal means for disseminating warnings directly to those affected In this country it means programs such as all- all hazards NOAA Weather Radio but also systems linked to cell phones pagers and all the technology of the home and workplace In the case of earthquakes it might mean warning systems that automatically take the steps needed to protect critical infrastructure without human intervention and fatal delay Prepare the public Those in Sumatra India Sri Lanka Thailand and elsewhere simply simply simply sim sim- ply did not know how to interpret the meaning of the scene before them them an an ocean suddenly receding far from the coast with fish flopping around on sediment that moments before had been underwater Such public awareness by itself with or without government warnings warnings warnings warn warn- ings could have triggered an immediate and massive exodus exodus exodus exo exo- dus to higher ground Arguably more lives might have been saved through such awareness awareness and and the precious seconds it would have bought than through any technical means Congress and the executive branch should think long- long term about this threat to humanity's interests and work strategically with others to build a safer richer more congenial world Address natural hazards and well we'll build the international international international collaborations and trust needed to handle freshwater and resource issues pollution pollution pollution tion poverty and other global problems Tackle those concerns concerns concerns con con- cerns and well we'll defuse a lot of potential armed conflict The investment amounts to pennies pennies pennies pen pen- nies on the dollar the social benefits are immense The writer a former NOAA employee directs the American Meteorological Society's policy program and chairs the Disaster Roundtable of the National Academies of Science- Science National Research Council The views expressed here are his own |