Show alu rural hural americas future prosperity or hard times depends EL on farmers action during present period per cent increase in income over 1929 causes boom danger to rise 0 WILL THIS WAR PRODUCE A LAND BOOM ON AMERICAN FARMS this question concerns not only agricultural economists but everyone who lives on or near a farm its answer w will largely determine future prosperity or hard times for rural america every previous war has brought its own land boom that left a wreckage of deflation behind under ordinary c circumstances circum i and with an ordinary war the current situation would be ripe for history to repeat itself the elements for a first class boom are present but from pearl down to the moment farm real estate values have defied precedent by remaining below pre world war I 1 levels meanwhile agricultural income has zoomed to record highs production has reached unheard of peaks and the 1943 outlook promises further expansion farm economists are frankly puzzled over the trend of land prices but they unanimously hope it continues they credit the good sense L 4 X more blore bread for doughboys dough boys means a bigger wheat producing job for american farm land of farmers themselves with the fact that farm real estate prices have risen so slightly thus far they point out that while the danger of a boom exists farmers themselves have the power to head it off production picture brilliant As the 1942 crop year ends farm conditions never appeared more promising more than 15 billion dollars will flow into farmers pockets from this years bumper harvest the biggest previous figure was 14 billion dollars in 1919 this years farm total is nearly four times the low ebb depression income of 49 billon bilion dollars in 1932 when operating costs including taxes interest wages for labor machinery machin bry and other items are deducted this year farmers should have a income of from four to five billion dollars for living savings and in vestment farm families will have an average of more to spend this year than last the production picture is equally brilliant for example the 1942 corn crop is reckoned at bushels a record exceeded only by 1920 and then by but a slight margin the crop ordinarily runs between bet veen 2 and vh billion bushels but dipped down to lve billion in the drouth years of 1934 and 1938 1936 despite the huge 1942 crop corn commands a high price the wheat yield this year will be the largest since the miracle crop of 1915 and the market price is the highest since 1929 hogs have returned to their traditional role of mortgage lifter 11 they are more numerous than ever and worth more per pound the 5 hog of a few years ago has been replaced by the 15 hog in excess of a million hog bog crop was figured for this year and even more production is expected for 1913 1943 beet beef prices are the highest since 1920 it is estimated that on january 1 1943 cattle and calves will number about 77 million head or more than a three million increase for each of the last two years the 1942 calf crop is probably the tha highest on record totaling 32 million head sheep and lamb have established records and the average price is the best in 20 years niagara of milk A niagara of milk exceeding billion pounds will have cascaded into dairy pails throughout the united states by the end of this year more milk cows are grazing americas pastures than ever before to be exact egg production for 1942 is estimated at 50 billion Poultry men are receiving top prices tor for their production and to mention one or two other items there is more hay than ever and the potato crop of bushels beats all previous records ordinarily whenever an industry does as well as farming has done there is a tendency to speculate those already in the business seek to expand their operations others seek to get in on the bonanza and soon a spiraling boom is born U S government Is leading way in soil conservation crusade abolishing ta soil mining alining undeniably farm labor shortages and the rationing of agricultural machinery are deterrents to with the war manpower commissions recent move to defer dairy livestock and poultry workers some relief will be forthcoming but labor will be scarce in all history there never has been a time when it was more essential for farmers to follow efficient production methods and utilize to the fullest extent every practice that will result in maximum output with minimum labor in such a program the importance of fertilizer is self evi dent the U S government is leading the way in its crusade for soil conservation and the abolition of the common practice of mining with all these factors in operation it is evident that it if more food is to be produced the present farm acreage will have to produce it how to accomplish this is a problem farmers themselves meet but experience has demonstrated that productivity can be increased if the soils fertility level is raised tests have shown that the average farms crop output can be enlarged from 10 to 30 per cent through intelligent soil treatment this means taking advantage of proper rotation the growing of soil building legumes the regular application of phosphorus and potash and terracing and contour plowing wherever necessary A survey of the rural real estate market recently revealed that farms are selling in increasing numbers but no unusual price advances are yet noticeable the farm credit corporation and insurance companies have been leaders in liquidating their farm holdings it is estimated that the has disposed of more than farms since 1938 some insurance companies report they have sold more than 90 per cent of the farms they acquired during the depression assion in recent months thousands of midwest farms have changed hands in individual farm auction sales analysis of the transactions revealed that 60 per cent of the buyers were farmers half of whom were tenants of the 40 per cent non farmer fanner buyers a large group represented city dwellers approaching retirement age who have bought farms in order to live reasonably on their pensions and income from savings how long this paradoxical situation of high farm income and low farm real estate values will continue economists economist 3 do not care to predict but they point out three factors which at present make the farm picture of world war II 11 different from that of world wold war I 1 A different farm picture 1 farmers would rather set get out of debt than into it hence they are not bidding up the farm real estate market by seeking additional land instead they are paying off mortgages and investing their surplus funds in war bonds they are making needed repairs on buildings and building up their 40 0 I 1 Y Z 0 4 greater wartime war time demand for hams and pork products has restored hogs to their traditional role of mortgage lifters on american farm land lands productivity by the adequate use of fertilizers and by other soil conservation measures 2 the hangover aftermath of world war Is land speculation spree is still fresh in the memory of most farmers Fari farmers hers are hedging on the future by plowing back present earnings into their present holdings without attempting any expansion 3 the present farm labor shortages shortage and the rationing of farm machinery are effective deterrents to the urge to acquire more land lets look first at the debt situation the extent to which farmers are using their expanded income to get out of hock was disclosed by A G black head of the farm credit administration who recently pointed out that a large percentage of farm mortgages are now being paid off ahead of schedule the nations farm mortgage debt has been reduced to GIN billion dollars the lowest figure in 25 years there are fewer foreclosures fore closures and other dis VOU N Y more and still more J every productive acre of farm land will be called on to yield more food for uncle sams expanding armed forced force in 1913 and to meet lend lease demands As a result the value of farm land as an investment will be enhanced above IN xa V S army quartermaster corps receives and allocates food shipments for troops right rising demand for dairy products spurs activities in creamery and bottling plants and helps boost farm income to record highs tress transfers than at any time in the past 20 years farmers realize more than ever before that a healthy liquid finan cial condition is the safest goal these days said a recent statement of the middle west soil improvement committee such a goal means getting debts out of the way it means building up the blood strains of livestock and eliminating the non producers it means making needed repairs on the house and barn it means paying particular attention to the fertility level of the soil long run earning power this last is of particular importance for the real value of land is dependent on its long run earning power thus any investment in a soil building program that will pay dividends in years to come is an important contribution to a farms fu future lure productivity in war wartime ime as in peace the farmer can obtain valuable information from his county agent or agnono mists at the state agricultural experiment peri ment station in developing his soil improvement plan such a program should include the raising of legumes to provide necessary nitrogen the commercial supply of which is is now largely required by munitions factories it should include regular crop rotation and the use of sufficient quantities of fertilizer containing phosphorus and potash to encourage plant growth it should include pasture improvement pro by means of such a program the soils future fertility level can be assured and its immediate output of foods and fibers for war and civilian needs increased most farmers instinctively fear a repetition of the world war I 1 land boom their hindsight has taught them many valuable lessons from the bitter experience of the and early if they profit by that hindsight they can escape the headache of a land collapse world war I 1 was a story of agricultural upsurge farm income rose from 6 billions in 1914 to 14 billions in 1919 high prices and a ready market for agricultural products plus easy credit facilities encouraged cou raged farmers to bid up land prices farms were bought on speculation with the expectation of a quick sale at a profit land values were inflated from an average of 40 per acre in 1914 to 70 in 1920 within those six years farm real estate rose in total value from 39 billion dollars to 68 66 billions the sequel was a crash that still reverberates reverberated rever berates land prices fell from an average of 70 per acre to 28 more than a third of the nations six million farms were foreclosed by the end of the depression all farm land and buildings declined from 66 billions to 31 billions even today farm real estate is worth only 36 billion dollars less than it r was before world war 1 L secretary C JI wizard ickard JV calls 1943 agriculture program nations greatest the farm pattern tor for 1943 is becoming increasingly clear this topsy world will need all the food america can produce secretary of agriculture has called tor for the greatest agricultural output in 1943 the nation has ever seen more men are going into military service where their tood food requirements are greater more civilians are working harder and will need increased sustenance and peace or war lend lease will have to be maintained tor for a considerable period I 1 if farmers will continue to keep their heads refuse to speculate and use their surplus to buy war bonds and build up their land and equipment they can greatly strengthen their position in the months to come and fortify themselves for the future the answer to whether or not america faces another disastrous land boom is largely in their hands if they will avoid the pitfalls of then they will move out of this war greatly improved financially and in their future out outi look |