Show washington digesu di gest battle tides tide s to influence luene 1944 political campaign close observers change minds express belief president presided will not be candidate if war ends by spring by BAUKHAGE news analyst and commentator service anlon trust building washington D 0 As the political campaign which will be over to in a short year begun begins to increase to in tempo it is inhere interesting sting to note that noticeable shock recorded by the reporters at a recent white ho house u so press and radio conference when the president tossed off that phra phrase e when I 1 am out ot of the whits white H house use taken Take in the context it was immediately med I 1 a tely clear that the president did n not 0 t delimit the time element in W athla r statement tat ement and there was no real jus justification for the stai startled aled pause when pencils stopped scribbling and he heads a ds and eyebrows went up at the presidential remark mr roosevelt was merely pointing out in connection with the postwar rubber situation that he believed that any proposed tariff to protect the synthetic rubber plants after the war should be vetoed and he implied that any president who vetoed sue such h a measure might stir up a lot of opposition from the synthetic rubb rubber er manufacturers but we have become so accustomed it to the idea that mr roosevelt himself thinks only in terms of his own regime without time or other limitations than an expression which seemed to indicate the opposite naturally caused a stir however it Is entirely possible that mr roosevelt will not be a candidate in 1944 there are even those who enjoy making rash prophecies who are arc already saying he has made up his bis mind not to run at au all under any circumstances this type of prediction is accepted in washington ashington as being in that class of guesses which have about a 40 60 chance of being right but closer observers who do not choose to guess the presidents inner thoughts but are thoroughly fa familial with his manner of thinking deduce from what hat they believe is post past experience peri perie ence twe c that he be will not be a candidate if the war is over by next spring prang this la is contrary to earlier prognostications that his desire to b be president when the blueprints blue prints for the postwar world are being drawn would incline him toward running for a fourth term the explanation I 1 li that he will not run unless he be has bai more than an even chance of winning mi na end of conflict although none of the army or navy officers of the top command will allow themselves to be quoted as saying the war will end early in 1944 a number of bolder and less constrained military folk are willing to gay ay this is ii possible it is interesting to consider thata year ago this summer cummer when many believed that invasion of northern europe by the allies would be undertaken der by the spring of 1943 few people were predicting even under such circumstances a an n end nd of the w war rear arly ay in 1944 2944 take tar for instance a typical comment in a leading peril peri harpers written very little over a year ago in which it was said that G germany ermany must complete ete the conquest of key positions in russia roust must halt or control the anglo amer lean ican onslaught from the air and roust hold bold northern africa for a sortie in the middle east when we consider what has happened since inc we can see the progress which has leen been made par far from any action in which the word conque conquest sV could be used the Wehr macht in russia has been driven beyond its ita la last st russian defense mes lines in many places the dr dream es am of an african empire has become the reality of bitter defeat and despite desperate defense measures the most powerful air blows are being struck against the reich Wa japanese situation within the year japans japan power has begun to crumble at a rate and in a manner which makes make it plain that the khe will not have to be beaten back island by island and every zap jap on foreign soll soil killed the Mi have become exceedingly cee adept at getting away from points once expected to be last arands with remarkable alacrity and apparent satisfaction in their own therefore it Is not at all impossible that the president if he be intends voluntarily to retire with the end of the fighting means mean that he will be out of the white house at his own behest before the ides of november 44 ta this situation if 11 it does arise imposes an interesting problem for the democrats it Is pretty generally agreed that the conservative element in the democratic party has been gaining in power in the last months when the president bestowed pos positions I 1 of key importance on the right wing of the party while many new dealers faded into the background when vice president wallace whom it was taken tor for granted would be the preside presidents ants choice as a successor was dropped and his activities placed in the more conservative hands of hull crowley et IL al it was plain that the original new dealers were being relegated relegate d to the rear of the hau hall GOP COP attitude and while the burning highlights of the administration portrait are being toned down to more sober hues the republicans seem to be outdoing outgoing out doing themselves in an effort to show that they can make use of the b right bright lexicon of youth as a reference work k an and d select from it promising shibboleths who speak of action rather than reaction of course mr willkie does not speak tor for the republican party but he be has a following which his supporters hope will be reinforced by disgruntled former new dealers as ai well as others whose leanings although they have never been such that they could wholeheartedly support a democratic regime are aie still far enough left to demand the most progressive candidate offered under any other respectable banner meanwhile of course the president must according to the e indio lable principles of politics show no signs of intending to withdraw since it Is written that you cant control your party unless there is a fair chance that you are g going ong to continue to be its active he head ad our political campaign of 1844 1944 is bound to be affected by the tide of battle abroad general arnold explains on a mild day with the virginia coun countryside warm in the glow of e autumn and the potomac spar sparkling kling in the sunlight some 50 newsmen correspondents columnists radio commentators climbed up the wide stone steps of the river entrance to the famous Pen g general arnold chief of americas arm army Y air forces took his bis seat and began to talk the gist of his words you have read what be felt can only be guessed but he was faced with the proposition of explaining the obvious and he seemed just a little weary at the prospect arnold to is a pleasant but blunt spoken fighting man with wings and service ribbons won in service A few days before he happened to listen to a commentator who was computing in dollars dollar and lives and material the cost of the bombing raid of the great ball bearing factory in fot germany the general was exceedingly irked what the commentator did not perhaps realize was the number of endless explanations of the obvious which general arnold has had to make since we entered the war and if germany does crumble because her war effort is smashed it will be arnolds explanations as a well as the bombs themselves that ought to get the credit if he had bad not been able to explain that american bombers could fly by in sufficient numbers into the heart of germany in the light of day and bit a target with the precision to destroy it we would never have a chance to prove it could be done there were few in high places either here or in britain who believed such im an absurd untried thing was practical but he had bad his chance and proved his thesis then when the experts were convinced when he was beginning to swing owing into action the he public began to exclaim at the cost of his raids that must have been hard to take and so he sat eat for an hour reeling off figures recounting details which wm will never be printed until peace comes and most effective of all for th the e layman showing the gre greatly so enlarged photographs of the de tion those great daylight precision raids accomplished BRIEFS B R I 1 E F S by baukhage uncle sams sam fighting sailors lallon guarding an liland island outpost in the pacific conducted a third war loan drive altheir own and bought 23 bonds bond and one bond twice as ai many bobble pins and hair plu necessary feminine items will be produced during 1944 as at presents present under a recent war production board action A zurich dispatch to the swedish newspaper said that the loss of thi the kuban area in russia had deprived thi the nazis of tons of tobacco a year A census of the german people the first since the outbreak of war in 1939 will be taken october 10 the nazi home radio has informed the german people |