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Show B looi iy win 1 EVEN IF UTAH GOES DEMOCRAT This Is Sullivan's Opinion After I I Political Survey of West-Bl West-Bl ern States ANTI-WILSON SENTIMENT GROWING. HE DECLARES Cox's Fortunes in West Held by Writer to Ge'in Extremely Extreme-ly Poor Shape Bi M KK Mill N ; nal Political Corrcspondcnl ol ihe i Vmk Evening Poa CHICAGO Oct. 16. I had intended to treat each of the western state that were cither large or doubtful in indl-, vidual cases Hut I have com- to Mie feeling thai the public Interest docs not Justifv .so extended a use of space., There is no real news In this west- in situation. It crystalled weeks -..eo an.i it still remains In Uje shape to which it originally r sialhia-.l su n ; chance as there ia runs In the direction direc-tion of confirming the early trend in deed the tendency so fat as there IS I any change Just now. is toward increased in-creased determination to get tne Democrats out of power. M PARTS HOSTILE c,a forum.--- m th west are in e-x- 1(f tremeiv poor shape Such elements as support him are too diverse to I ; real help. They antagonize each other. I pull against each other, and neutral-Ice neutral-Ice ach other instead cot neipmg Cox Lh Swhlpsaw him. The spots where there Is a strong league sentiment' , Js In states which are I umlam ntlly JIIm Republican states. On the other hand.' H the sUtes might have I . i, . xpu. led j to give their votes to Cox happen l be states which have a consider able Irish vote, or some other sort of sIllV vote that Is hostile to the league. PPJ Those women who mUht hae ,up ported Cox on the league are drawn .iw iv b the suspicion that Demoi r . 1 1 i victory, especially in the lower house of congress might tend to endanger prohibition. The labor vote that might have Supported Cox Is dinuni. ).' d the fact that man: who are lab are also for racial reasons or other- BlllS wise opposed to the leagai ol nailun: n-Wll SON SEN! IMENT The largest sinpi.- element In the western situation Is the thing that Hoover emphasised the other night. A deeply held conviction that the Dcmo-cratlc Dcmo-cratlc parly has not managed the i ountr: well, and a detei ml istlon to H put in Words we might hesitate to use a determination to fire th. hlredi man mood flB reached the point where U lsn t vvill- Ing to talk about or listen to the Ps- H sible shortcomings of the new man but Is determined to gel the pres nl b one off the promises, bag uagg) IIilP 'be earliest possible date. As one poli-1 ttclan said, "'it la lust plain anli-Wil-Of course, it would be inaccurate! H and grossly tyijust to say this mood Is universal among the voters. Hut It Is geographically. And such a mood, when It Is widely distributed g -ogr.iph-ieally does not need to affect more than ten or at most twent) per cent of the voters to change the pro-Wilson majorities of 1918 to aritl-WllBon ma-iorltles ma-iorltles in si i I HI ST i E OPINIONS Considered state L state, this is i the situation in the trahs-Mlssisslppi j MINM SSI 'l H Minnesota will KO for Harding iv, H upward of one hundred thousand When Harding visited Minnesota he Ht was accorded a reception which for M' -.nil erfty and enthusiasm equalled any recaption ever given by Minnesota to any candidate, barring oiih Theodore Roosevelt. The Democrats have real-ly real-ly thrown up their hands in Minnesota no officl ly, JKBv. All tin I lie TIM ' s n.ill hup In Mm 1 1, nesoUi Is to hold that party m-ganlza-l tlon together by soft pedalling on Cox j and concentrating their activities on one of the minor candidates for a slate office ' Ml I II 1 9 North Dakota win go for Harding HR The Non-raMlsan I'.'Uiii' on t(iL. presl-j dental! issue Is officiality more or less in utral, but the members of the league will vote largely for Harding. The Democratic national organization has had emissaries up lo re trying to treat E. with the Non-Partisan league But the B truth i, Townley, who Is the head 0" tli" Non-1'iirtlsan b ague woiilij not K dare iao.' tin- national K iulli an ticket If he wanted to, Such an action would be running too strongly counter to the sentiments of the bulk of the Individual members of tin. league The BIB Non-Partisan league candidate Lor Bjfl l'niud States senator. Doctor E. F. Ladd, will be elected. mii i ii ii K n South Dakota will go for Harding by a majority exceeding 2.r..00o here, j as nearly everywhere the Republican I J candidate ei j of success as Harding is. Nevertheless, I B the besl judgment is that the Elepub- Mean senatorial candidate. Oovernor L v. ill i cted M INTANA BP Montana Is one stati thai it normal- BP ly Democratic. Probably an allocation raajWr of theee western states that would be lightly generous to Cox would give .Montana to him. Hut the Non-Pa i t Isa H' league has captured the Democratic organization in Montana and the n f r Milting chaos in party undoubtedly en- H dangers Democratic success. K One of the two Democratic senators Ht from Montana .Myers, has come out H publicly, in opposition to the local BL Democratic ticket, because of the cap- B ture of the organization by the radl- BBBj'' i all This has encouraged other eon- j servatlve Democrats to do the same. BBBjt M,oreover, so far as the presidential BBBjL Issue is concerned probably a majority J of the Non-Partisan league favors Har- Jl ding. When Cox was in Hie state he BBBr tried hard to get the old Roosevelt HBBj 5 supporters, but he will not gift them. BBM Die Republican candidate for gover- BBl 10r Is ex-Senator Joseph M Dixon, BM everybody In Montana knows that IMx- BBBJ! was very close to Kooseselt and J was national chairman of the old Pro- BBBJ grasslve party, BBH I'lnulU a large part of the normally BBj Democratic vote in Montana Is Irish. BBB and the Irish are against Wilson and HBBjl the league. Of course, it is also true HU in. ii.;. uf ill-' anie Irl.-li lcjil- I W rs are local office holders or are SjBH otherwise strongly identified with the vContlnued on Page Two.) Smoot May Win Even I If Utah Goes Democrat l ktlnued i nun Page h. local Democratic organisation. Nevertheless, Never-theless, the bulk ol them will probably prob-ably be against Cox. Ths net about Montana is that if it k-.'i - Democratic at all, it win only pa by a very small majority. The real inicrc.-n in montane ioiiiks and inu Is true of most of the northwesterr Mates is not In the national ultuatloii but In the local triumphs of the Nonpartisan Non-partisan league. Idaho will surely go for Harding Here again the Republican candidate1 for Fnlted States senator will run markedly behind Harding Two Wei ago I would have said that the Democrats Demo-crats would reelect their Senator from Idaho, but the Republican candidate : for senator will be carried In on the wave. VSH1XGTON Washington w ill go heavily for Hir-; din. Here also the Republican can-; Idldate for senator will run behind The , Republican senator Jones, who is him-1 i self a candidate for reelection, has' Imuch opposition from business men In Seattle, because of some of the Sena-'lor Sena-'lor Jones' official acts in regard to -hipping. liut the best Judgment Is that Jones will run behind 'Harding. ; he too. will w in ORF.GON Oregon apparently Is about to do 'a curious thing, which confirms, the i reputation of Oregon as one of tho; most Intelligent electorates in America, will go for Harding by a very large majority probably, as laree a majority major-ity as Roosevelt got In 1004. but In I the senatorial election in Oregon Senator Sena-tor Chamberlain, who has held the seat tor twelve years, in a candidate for reelection, Chamberlain Is a goon (Senator, and Oregon likes him. Therefore, There-fore, ulthough i riu'on w:;; g:ve one ot the largest Republican majorities In 'the country in proportion to Its popu-I popu-I lation it Will probably reelect the Democratic senntor At least this Is I the present tendency. Three or four I weeks ago everybody took It for grant .1 that Senator Chamberlain would 'win. Rut Just now the Republican I trend Is so strong that If It continues I to roll up until election day Chamber-' lain mav be In danger. i l IFORNl V California will go Republican. Hope-nil Hope-nil Democrats place California In their column, and observers who ha'e friendly feeling for the underdog lend Ho place California In the doubtful 'column. But the truth is that the wiser Democratic leaders In Cnllfor-j nlu do not foil themselves The total registration In California 'will be about 1.300.000 or wblch abou. '800.000 Will be Republican. 300.000 1 Democratic. and 1;.000 declining declin-ing to state their party affiliation f course the mere preponderance of 1 registration docs not make the election 1 i foregone conclusion. But It is slgnifl-, cant that the percentage of Republican i registration this year has risen from E I per e nt of the totul up to per cent of the totul while the Demo ratio registration has fallen In about thei spme proportion As to the senatorship California Is ih.- same old story, only more so. The J Republican candidate for senator. Shortridge, will run rar hehlnd his ,'tlcket. The sitting Democratic senator! I'h' Uii. i- universal looked upon b California as a creditable figure, lb- has a' stronghold on the affection of the state lb ha-, made a tin. public record In many offices. And has alway shown the kind of keen and Intelligent interest In public affairs that California Cali-fornia appreciates. Phelan will probably ran , Ti.ooo ahead of Cox. Which Is the vame thing as saying that if Harding's majority in California Is less than 75.000, Phelan Phel-an will win- MEXICO, UUZON'A. NEVADA f thoe three southwestern states, which have throe electoral vole each. .-.'. Mf-M-o is nroi.ablv l"t to the Republicans Re-publicans this year. Arizona Is very even, and Nevada although normally a Oemocrallc state is from the Democratic point of view In danger thifl year. Nevuda's population la hin ill at best, and the recent census showed that during the last ten years it has lost four or five thousand of tys eighty thousand people. In Nevada's population there I. a rather large number of Irish, who are opposed to the league of nations, in Nevada no Democratic candidate, aside from President Wilson 'af ever given more than 8600 majority. Hi- year the Republicans mav parr Nevada for ..Harding, but the Democrat Demo-crat will probable reelect their senator. sena-tor. Henderson i r u i tah If full of complexities, including- earl Mast Ifl ones which make the situation la that state not easy to un-1. un-1. r i.ind and still less SjSSQT t explain t . the public oulsld the state. The net of the Ctah situation I that Cox may carry the state but the Republican senator. Smoot, will probably prob-ably be reelected. Everybody In Utah knows the distinguished position thatj Smoot has In the senate and as a na-l llonal figure. Local pride In 8nioot's position will be enough to give htm si.b i i bio margin .v . r tin norm i! Republican vote i ( ! .o K I ( i 'olorailo is another of those states which went strongly for Wilson In 1918. and which the Demoi rats claim thla year liut the best Judgment is thai Colorado this year will go for Harding The senatorship, however. tiua HOI yev iuii.i iiwicu ui num liaoi; caused by the September prim-, irli i rid y made i rv complex by the existence of a regular Republican candidate, can-didate, and a threat of an Independent Independ-ent Republican candidate, o regular Democratic candidate and Non partisan par-tisan league candidate Out of this chaos It Is hard to predict what will come Minw i ST SI vi Eg Wan-as and Nebraska will bOtb g" Republican heavily As to ' "klahomn. the begt Judgment is that the atate Is safe for Cox. Missouri, as the el. . tion draws close, seems to tend more and more in the direction of Republican victory. Iowa, of course will go heavily Republican. Re-publican. As to Iowa senatorjBhlp a weeks ago. 1 said Cummin would run a hundred thousand behind Harding. Today I would not sn- that, Cummins friends have become aware of his dinger din-ger and are stirring up the state to be loyal to his fine character and the prestige he has given Iowa In the senate. sen-ate. Cummins will si-ffer from the opposition oppo-sition of the Iowa farmers to the recent re-cent railroad bill he helped 10 make, but be win win readily. Those are the details The net of it all fa this Of all the states west of the Mississippi river Cox will carry without with-out any doubt, of course the three distinctively dis-tinctively southern states Louisiana, Arkansas and Texas. The one state Which may he called si mi-southern so to speuk. Oklahoma, he has a little more than an even chance of carrying -i bs (.. i) prvicrom Other than this, In all this Western territory Cox will probably not get more than seventeen or at the outs'lde twentS three electoral votes out of a total of 12 In all this, there is one clear fact: The Republican strength is overwhelming overwhel-ming on th.- presidential ticket alone. On the aggregate of the local sena-j torial Issues the distribution of votes' between Republicans and Democrats does not Vary greatly from normal. It Is almost whollv .i case ..f Irritation Irrita-tion against the Democratic administration adminis-tration at Washington A case of firing fir-ing the hired man. Copyrighted lyil'J, by the New York ECvening Post, im . |