| Show IMPORTANCE OF WEATHER MATHER SEEN Business Largely Large Af Al- Affected Affected By Climatic Conditions I Special Dispatch DI BABSON PARK PARI Mass Aug 7 7 A A conference of weather ex experts ex- ex experts peels has been held l el at the Dab Dab- Babson Dabson Dabson son Institute with special ref reference to long Jon distance weather forecasting fo This conference brought out some somo very ery Interest Interest- interesting ing facts which Mr Babson sum sum- as follows D DAILY Y MIA FORECASTS Ono of the th chief Items of In Interest In- In Interest Interest terest In every dally daily daly paper Is the weather forecast This usually Is Ison I ison on the first page and very ver often ofen In Inthe inthe the tho upper corner thus giving It Ita ita a prominent position The dally daily daly forecasting oC he weather has been In existence many years jears years In the early days the weather man was wasa a Joke and the weather forecast served to amuse as do donow donow donow now the funny funny- pictures Gradually Gradually ally aly this service Improved and today loday It Is fairly reliable Of course the th most widespread use Is In connection with wih pleasure pleure travel etc If I wo we are arc ore Invited 1 ed to toa toa toa a picnic have art I appointment for playing golf or are arc Interested In some somo outdoor fete we Invariably study the tho weather bureau fore fore- forecast forecast cast cast Also this forecast is 1 used by shippers shIpper of or certain merchandise dise 1150 by farmers by builders and andIn andIn andin In other commercial and ond Industrial ways v Every cry Dver year improvements are arc being made and the weather welther bureau at Washington with wih Its Is various ramifications is I entitled to the credit for most of the good work ork done SAVE S. VE FRUIT FU In In the late lato fall fal these dally daily daly forecasts arc are watched keenly by investors In and especially by those who buy or sell sel grain Often Ofen the tho corn crop la Ls 1 made mad or lost by a aday aday aday I Icorn day or two delay In harvesting and the tho weather bureau has per- per performed formed d a I distinct function for In Investors In-I In in- in investors In this connection Fuit Fruit growers have been saved hundreds t e of millions milons of dollars by those dali dal forecasts which have havo en enabled en- en enabled them to prepare against frosts frost ad and similar catastrophes The fhe uses however of the dally daily dal forecasts are rather limited and have no such opportunity for serY- serY service serVIce ice to business men and investors Investor In estors as CS have weekly and long lonG distance forecasts AWI T KI FORECASTS I It It wa wa only a I few years ago ao that scientists claimed weekly eelI weather eather forecasts to be bo an but today the weather bureau at Washington Is putting out an estimate of what the wea ea eather tIter ther will wi be for tho the next seven days days basing baing the forecast on the usual course which storms am and other weather movements mo usually take Such work however hOever Is I still In Its Is Infancy and has not ye yet been satisfactory s While A our gO RON Is doing sonic some excellent work In this direction Argentina under the direction of Its It official forecaster leads lends In long range long range weather forecasting In our own country numerous experts expert arc are making extended lions tons II I. I If H. Clayton of Canton Mass lass Charles F. F Brooks Drooks of Clark Clarl university C. C C G G. Abbott of the Smithsonian Astrophysical observatory observatory atory ator Dr George Georgo F I McEwen o oSan ot of ofSan San Francisco and other prominent prominent nent men are giving very vcr careful study to weekly and monthly fore fore- forecasts ore ore- casts caMi Dr Abbotts Abbott's A theory Is based basci basel on the Ule variations In the amoun amount of heat radiated directly from th the sun onto the earth which is meas mess measured measured by Its ls staff staf It I is also be be- be believed that these changes in the sun suns sun's s beat radiations can bo be pre pre- dieted Dr Brooks Drooks approaches approaches the problem primarily from a C study of ot the thc temperature of ot ocean cur cur- currents currents rents the tho effect which these have on air currents and consequently on land temperatures and amid rainfall Dr McEwen was wal one of the first firs to forecast California weather b bocean by ocean OCt an temperature VALUE AI I TO STORES STOHrS The up date ate to retailers of the country are arc watching these expert exper- exper ments with the greatest Interest Weather forecasts of a n week or orten orten orten ten days in advance would be o ot of great value to department stores and other retailers In planning planning- sales les releasing releasing- advertising copy and arranging for fol clerks clerks The re retail re- re retail tail tai trade has ha two great handicaps today One is that women simply simp will wi not shop In Uio tho morning but all al crowd Into a a few hours in the tho afternoon and the tho other Is I that clerks must be bo hired hire today Irre Irre- Irrespective irrespective e of ot weather conditions U he hc-a hc weather be bo forecast can cn a I week eek or ten days In advance the entire routine of a big depart depart- department department ment mont store Including advertising and selling selling- seln can be reorganized to the great geat benefit ot or the stores em- em and the customers cu LONG TIME PREDICTION The The most interesting new de development de- de development development In weather forecasting is In connection with wih long Iong dis tanco tance predictions That Is is fore foro- forecasting ore ore- casting for periods of or three months to three years jears ear This doe doea mean menn that wo we shall ever ba bs b able to forecast what the tho weather will wi bo ho a n year from today toda but It II seems entirely possible we should be able to forecast as to ton n what hat hat the weather will wil be next summer that Is warmer or colder than this summer Tho The men mentions 1 above together with wih others are re working on this problem al although 11 al- al although though the Interest has s h been aroused by Herbert Browne rowne a a former newspaper man manIn min minIn manin In Washington who Is serving as assort assort assort sort of house clearing for all al tho the studies along these lines linos This theory Is based on ems tho effect which these changes 1 In solar lolar heat havo have on en ocean temperatures trac trac- tracing tracIng tracIng ing these changes in the tho ocein currents and anti finally interpreting their effects on Inland weather through their influence on mol moli wind winds the tho tholand turo ture toward I land The Te fact that ocean water temperatures are slower than those hO of the tho land 1 to respond to toa toa i a change a o In solar arOr arO radiation r t 1 is taken into account lecount Thus If I measurements show that thai heat hoat hat I given off of from the th sun has been beon below belo normal for two or years jears cars owing to sun spots or ot other things then Mr r. r Browne Browno be believes be- be bel believes l tho the ocean OCOn currents gradually gradually ally must become correspondingly cooler cool r affecting evaporation and ano wind currents and certain weather changes on the theland land EXIOr'S l RY with this lone loni Tho The difficulty wih lon lon- distance forecasting tor la is I that up tip to the present lime tinse it I is I largely u a theory without supporting data date a the tho famous l this theory theor somo some years year ago aril an 1 I attempted d to collect data datI which had extent t n been e at various V gathered points OI to t. t a nm but limited very I little of ot a I scientific nature Is I In I existence today toJa Moreover It w J take tako a great many years and a 0 great deal of ot money to collect suf sut- sufficient data data on ocean tempera tempera- temperatures temperatures temperatures tures to enable such a n system to tobo tobo tobo bo built bui up It It Is 19 tho the consensus of opinion of most mOll of the experts however that the tho governments of tho the world orld could not appropriate money with any better object In view than In collecting this data da on ocean temperatures s. s CLIMATIC CHANGES References have been made In tho press pre from time to time on the thee great changes es that have taken place on the tho west coast of ot South America Ameria which for tho the past 0 O vears has been dry and barren During the past year year Ecuador Peru leru and Chile Chie have had haJ a n rain rain- rainfall fall fal ot of over inches and tho this coast blossomed like IWo 11 0 a a roso rose ThU Is due to tho the fact that the Humboldt current current which normal normal- normally ly flows north along the west Wet coast of South and Central Ame Ame- Ame Amelea Ica lea has las moved from its Is accustomed accustomed accustomed tomed route This stream of ot cool cOIl water from this tho Antarctic has been responsible for an total absence of ot rain in some see sec sections lions tons of the western coast of or South America and for clear s sand weather eather fu fy and generally dry as fi north as California It I was va wo Hol 1101 lywood's s unbroken days ot of sun sun- sunshine shine and cloudless skies that made it peculiarly adapted to the tho shooting of motion moton pictures and 11 gave It that eminence pro eminence which It has held so long But lut during durin I Ithe the past put six months the tho Humboldt of ot current has been pushed out the regular course by a a. n warm water current from the north norh The Tho result was WiS a 0 total reversal re of oC conditions off the western coos coast coat of ot South America with wih torrents torrente ot of rain In places where no rain fell fel In 60 years year and great greal losses loses to the guano Guano deposits of Chile ChiI I which depend on dry weather fo for fr their value The changed chanced condi condl- conditions tIon tons have affected even en the Cali Cali- California CalifornIa fornia fornIa coast where more moro rain Is 13 said to have fallen falen during the past few weeks than ever before In a like period PRO US AND LOSSES SS S. S SOne One probably thinks that this Is looked upon as os a a great blessing by the tho people living on the west coast cont of South bouth America but such is I not the case One On of the tho prin prin- principal principal cipal Industries is I the tho guano Indus Indus- Industry Industry try which consists of ot deposits from birds and which depends on ona onI ona a I dry climate and the absence of ofrain rain The Tho recent great rains washed away these deposits and U it I continued eill wi cau cause e great harm to the tho Industry The greatest possible ble rainfall docs does not do 00 any harm to a I place like Venice where people 1 build their ther houses on piles ples and live IV on the water ater but b t on the west coast of ot South America Ameria people have havo been building their houses of ot oftentimes In the very cr beds of ot rivers which have been dry dr for many years The fhe supposition was that dry dr weather would continue I It I is estimated that one hundred I thousand of these these- houses have hove been washed away by the rains It I Is I not so 10 Important what kind of I weather a a community has as it Is that the same kind of ot weather con con- A community can prosper from front dry weather and will I develop based on wet condi condi- conditions As long as the same con con- conditions conditions tons lonG continue the Industries and communities prosper Losses come conic through a change change What hat has hap hap- happened happened happened to the Pacific coast of South America could easily happen to California New ew Mexico and Arl ArI- ArIzona Anzona zona Texas or any ny other part of the country A slight shifting in inthe Inthe Inthe the gulf stream could make nake a 0 win win- winter winter winten I ter ten resort out of ot New England and anda a summer resort out of ot I I CROP CHOP IU IES S The older farmers farmer of the cen cen- central central trai west will 1 remember the great crop failures of ot the when hen all al of the crops of or an art entire entre state like Kansas were wiped out In those days ays the crop reports were ere of or great grent speculative value and were watched bj by b investors most keenly Today there is not much Interest in these crop reports as ns there are arc not nol such drastic clop cop failures Too Ino farmers of the west attribute this to their I ability In diversifying their crops crop anti and using modern methods In agri- agri culture It I. I It however is a I great question Queston whether the Improved cd conditions of ot today are Cre due to dl dl- dl versification and better beter ture lure or whether they are arc Cre duo due to weather changes If I the better beter con eon conditions of ot today are arc duo to better weather eather there is I a very good pos pos- possibility possibility that wo we 0 may again como come to toa toa a 0 period the crops of or the en en- entire entre entire tire central west are arc wiped out as tre was the case cas of a n generation ago Igo When en tho the Dakotas were settled this WM won w good agricultural land but during the past Jast ten years ears the Da Dakotas kotas have suffered terribly from weather ther conditions It I was the tho weather that was responsible for forthe forthe forthe the Labor Farmer party and the radicalism of o tho the Dakotas Now this weather veather Is changing for or tho the better beter and the tho radicalism Is I dying out accordingly It I makes one al almost al- al almost most shudder to think how very yer dependent wo we are on on weather con con- conditions conditions diton which we take for tor granted and which at any tune tIme may be away awa PHE IE FOR FOn LOSS I These Those facts of special Import Import- Importance Importance importance ance at the present time when stock market prices are aio high and such optimism exists in financial and I certain business circles As long longas as nothing happens business cats can continue good or along the tho nor nor- normal normal normal mal line lne as It now Is Is the Babson- Babson labson- labson chart re Bering 1 per cent above o normal However er there Is no rea rca reason son eon why h catastrophes cannot hap- hap hen in the future as ns they have haYe In Inthe Inthe inthe the past and this thi especially applies fundamental changes both to o great geAt I as to rainfall and temperature All Al of this means that there arc are three l lS distinct S l lessons s which business men I I ef and investors should s heed in this this' this connection I II I 1 Bo io prepared for losses In any Iny Industry or community which Is 3 dependent on a I continuation ot of othe the he same weather conditions as I have havo javo existed for years jears earl These rhese hes changes may not o come com for 1 years cars but u they e en may n come coma In n 1926 2 2 Bo no prepared for tor crop cop fail fail- failures tal- tal failures ures ure In sections sections' where crops havo been cen bountiful for tor many mony years and be prepared d for bountiful crops crop n sections which havo have been consid consid- considered considered ered med poor and arid Be ne prepared for or dry sunshiny weather in sec sec- Ions which hove have lomg be been M humid and bo be prepared for frosts In see sec B C- C Ions tons which have havo been considered frost rest proof 3 3 Keep In touch with wih the stu stu- studies dies les being made mado In connection with wih long ong distance forecasting Don Dont Don't t wallow swallow the tho theories all al at once but ut on the other hand hanl treat them with wih respect and encourage caper exper- ments made along these thelo lines Copyright 1925 1926 Publishers Publishers' Fi Fl |
