Show CHECK RISING PRICES I I Observers Feel Confident Serious Reaction Can I Be Avoided CanI I I I BT nv STU P r WEST Stand Leased Incased Wire to The rd ird-Exa ird miner I Copyright ht 1923 W YORK April 21 The 21 The foremost forc- forc most mo t topic of ot discussion at the close cloe of the present week is whether or not the tho general business movement can continue at the pace set dunn tho the last list t too 0 months without In- In 1 solving the danger of ot Inflation In and another unpleasant experience like that of three ears ago Tins This tJ la laby by no means a new subject e eel esen el although misgivings openly I e ex- ex expressed pressed e pressed hate e become more moro of a fac- fac factor factor ac- ac actor tor In the markets I II I 1 In this th article u a week seek eek ago th the opinion Has as a as given that trade expansion ilon sion ion had gone about as far asi as RS I vas Has as likel to go With tho steel mills e operating above per stall ut I jol uc with the manufacturers lers ers of o woolen and cotton colton goods working overtime nith 1 a I of ot pig Iron and with tho raIlroads handling the largest larget traffic raf fic ic ever known at this season of The hc year ear thero vas as little more to tobe tobe tobe be exp expected in the way of ot increase n nut Cut it is quite a i L different to say MY that the business volume 1 1 I as aJ reached It its pen peak It and to say that thit thata thita a lI serious downy down ird rd turn Is Imminent nent r E Everything Ei eri thins depends upon the future price movement If It a halt Is not called upon the tho advance in III his commodity prices It Is on all sides silles that consumption nil all II he be curtailed and then a serious rea- rea rca rca-llon Ilion will set In It If on the con con- con con the tendency toward rising prices is checked thel there e Is no rel- rel rca rea reason son to look for tor any Important change from present conditions condition UP Tire The department of ot commerce result results for March has hIU shown that th production In many mar man lines was vas Hell ell ell up to the top of o three t leers ago but It ha has also pointe out that wholesale prices on th a still are arc 36 35 per ler cent away front from the high ugh of ot that time I This 1 his li Iq one of o the tho t 0 most Im- Im Important d elements ments of difference between be- be be tween now non no and that of ot 1920 rho rhe second Is 19 thit so fat fai neither the great enlargement gement of ot trade nor th the ah advance anee In securities prices price h bs h brought an am ant strain upon th the ced Cedit c structure The rho banks have depend depend- depended depended ed cd upon their own resources to one melt nei the Increased demands and have b been en sparing In their use uso of the tha re- re rediscount re rediscount discount facilities of o the tho federal rt- rt seive sei ve I hll-I There Is la in mound lound l numbes a bil- bil billion bil billion lion dollars of o more moro In the country today than han there wa was 11 1919 and while whilo this til's constitutes n a temptation to inflation It Is nevertheless never never- nevertheless thelMs an Immense extra credit re rp- rp I n l sen r The comparison comparion between the 40 s per cent reser reserve reser e ratio or of oMay May 1920 1910 19 0 and tho present per cent must always s be bc In reply to any charge that the man cia clat situation Is s approaching the danger stage Instead jid of ot the mar mar- marIng maring mari ing Ing up of official tie deou discounts which Watt I street was as as apprehending a month ml nth ago the past neck ceJ his hia seen easier rates for rail call money and for bank hank hankers bankers ers acceptances and decidedlY larger offerings of time funds at atthe atthe at the concession demanded b by nor nor- row ro rots ers w S The two features which must mu l be as unfavorable hate ha c a ot- ot otten often ten ol-ten ten been set forth forth and discussed the first Is increase In wages now has become I nation aide ide the theother be other is the e outpour O of 01 new securities A condition where wage costs are on the tho Increase and where business bu inos ino's men ate aio afield I to meet these n with Ith a further price ad- ad advance advance advance vance spells smaller maller profit gins Inq I These are considerations which unquestionably have havo been In fn tb the 1 Wail Street market m for the last month The have base shown quite as plainly as the higher interest rate in the time Investment market of tIC list ht sic sl sl months Us Its influence on the stock market is not so appa appa- appa cot ent because of the abundance of o credit and the consequent ability ot of o underwriting syndicates to carry Indefinitely hat shat hat the cannot ead- ead IllY ily sell But Dut It does es Imply a corn cant H I petition with the older listed stocks q which is an obstacle to operations operation 1 tor for the rise r l UIL P C ux Nothing r has hils cropped out In the trade news of ot the week peek to warrant l 1 any auy feeling of ot pessimism Such pl pause use as has bas 0 occurred from fl om t the h feverish f activity ity of last month Is fa J altogether de i able It Jt Is a rood thing that bu buyers ers of ot steel stE-el no long Ion longer lonser er 1 have hate to pay premiums for to fo prompt and that J have hate been shaded The break In inthe Inthe the speculative speculate e cotton IS 13 ISta fat ta favorable foe to fo the outlook in en cotton tot goods Those These are arc two tao Important instances which point ton to toward ard it IL ILch ch ck upon uvon advancing prices andI and I which accordingly are an I that the thc situation has been talon tak-n in m time to pre prevent present ent a recurrence of o tile the troubles of 1920 LG It ro md STRONG G The sugar trade is in a quite dif dif- different ferent position for here liere Iere all the re- re recent re recent cent nt ditl tends to support the lo- lo ered of ot thi the Cuban cro crop and hence to indorse the he view that th it if there thero is no actual shortage u 11 I 1923 1323 na the relations l between et een world l production and consumption Is go- go going ing to be bo abnormally small mall Sugar I have havo fought t thia ilila Conclusion as Is not surprising ln hold bo 0 hll have 0 of o the Amell- Amell cin beet sugar industry because I gro growers ers of ot sugar beets are supposed supposed supposed ed to tp ha have hate e pretty well hell ell sold at prieRs prices I well under present prent and are theta theta- tore fore in no fro position pollIon to get their shame hale of the advantage of ot any further lose lise No Now Non the tho government has taken kell steps in an attempt to restrain what wh It is sed lc to call nn an anant od od cd speculation in sugar sug futurES futurE'S The ot of the court proceed proceed-i proceedings I ings will Hill III we e an 0 awaited tiled lIed with lIh the ut- ut utmost utmost ut utmost most interest It If the sugar bUgar trade la Is light tight and the government o IJ Ia prong rong on the rho que question lion of demand and supply an and the tho Justice of ot the I price ad advance ance It lt tt will Hill III be bo one or of the worst fiascos in iii years jeara ears |