Show I Forecasting Big Bige I Help Hell e to o Farmers Statement of What May Be Expected to Happen Based Upon Present Conditions Prepared by the tho th United States S Department of ot Agriculture Agricultural forecasting by public agencies will put farmers more nearly on an even cven basis with those In other Industries In deciding whether to o continue In accordance with their old plans or readjust their production lon tion owing to permanent chan changes es which mn may Ita have ve taken place In marketing marketing marketing mar mar- conditions says Dr Henry 0 O. Taylor chief of the bureau of agricultural tural ural economics of the Department of Agriculture In periods of unsettled economic conditions a agricultural forecasting Is of great importance says Doctor Taylor Talor The great grent war has thrown economic relations out of equilibrium The agricultural depression has resulted result result- ed In efforts on the part of the farmers farmers farmers farm farm- ers to Improve their situation through readjustments Forecasting can cnn be viewed not only from the standpoint of the tho Individual farmer and the merchant dealing In farm fann arm products but also from the national national na- na lonal point of the view view the supply of food and raw materials for the tho nation throughout a series of years From the he Individual point of view forecastIng forecasting forecast forecast- Ing ng Is the basis of wise farm management management management manage manage- ment and marketing Basis of Policy From tho the national point of view It itis I Is B the basis of a national agricultural policy From the latter point of view agricultural forecasting centers about the tho he question of the right utilization of land how and how much should be used for u ench ot or of the me ue cultivated CUHl crops how much mUCH fOr or forestry and how much for parks and nd playgrounds In order that the maximum of national well-being well may maybe maybe maybe be attained Frequent changes In the Ule sources of supply quantities produced and the consequent changes In prices of farm products lead to a desire for a better basis of Judgment than most farmers now have when projecting their plans for tho coming yeas year ear says Doctor Taylor This has led various agencies agencies agen agen- cies coles to attempt to supply this need by making forecasts of what Is likely to happen lappen A forecast Is a statement of what may be expected to happen based upon present conditions and observations observations observations ob ob- ob- ob Interpreted In the Ule light of previous experience and Is the basis of ot planning beforehand what action to o take In order to secure a desired end Farmers of necessity mal make e fore fore- casts In the light of their knowledge of the ph physical and economic environment environment environment environ environ- ment they decide decle what they will undertake undertake un un- to do for the coming year year year- how low much land the they will use the acreage acreage acreage acre acre- age the they will put Into each of the various various various vari vari- ous crops and the live lI stock they will keep as a part of the farming opera opera- Merchants who deal In farm products give gh-e even more attention to agricultural forecasting than do farmers farmers farm farm- ers themselves In so far as as the economic factors are concerned farmers farmers farmers farm farm- ers too generally determine how much they will produce next year of a given crop on the basis of present prices rather than prospective e prices As a result they have often planted high- high priced seed in increased quantities and sold the lye Increased quantities of product product product prod prod- at low prices and In turn planted lightly of priced low seeds and had a small production to sell at nt high prices Supply and Demand The Tho bu buyers ers of farm fann products take Into nto account not only produce on hand but the probable future supply of the product which may be forthcoming If there Is a 10 per cent surplus of the d 1 t p f n be 1 1 pro t uc o VI one VU S ear to iu IV UC carried 1 overto over to the next year ear the buyer of this 1 surplus surplus surplus sur sur- plus naturally bases the lye price he Is Is' Is willing to pay upon the probable price he lie will be able to secure the next year and this he lie bases on the lie forecast of what will probably be produced the Ule next year While forecasts have e always been made b by farmers and merchants and will continue to be made mae It Is believed believed believed be be- that agricultural forecasting can be made more accurate by hy bringing to bear historical and statistical methods methods methods meth meth- of collecting materials which will add to the accuracy of this forecasting forecast forecast- ing A knowledge of present trends in production and prices In the light of past experience will a add greatly to the accuracy of forecasting Furthermore Furthermore Furthermore Further Further- more knowledge of or the lie Intentions of ot others who vho are simultaneously figuring figur figur- lug lag on making readjustments will Improve improve Im im- prove the basis of or passing Judgment The purpose of agricultural forecastIng forecastIng forecasting forecast forecast- ing is the wise guidance of production In order that there may continue to be bea a proper balance between the various lines of production and between agriculture agriculture agri agrI- culture and other Industries I |