Show Loss of Mineral Land Seals G Germanys Germany's s Doom Says Writer Write By Frank H H. SImonds The moment has arrived in the German crisis when it is possible even necessary to recognize the fact tact that short of the miraculous Germany Germany Ger Ger- many the modern Industrial Germany Germany Germany Ger Ger- many which has developed in the thelast thelast thelast last half halt century is doomed Within With With- in the next ten years we are almost certain to see a transformation hardly hardly hardly hard hard- ly like anything which has happened since those remote days when disturbances disturbances disturbances dis dis- of ot food supplies set in motion motion motion mo mo- tion the migration of the barbarian tribes which totally overturned the whole Roman world In the case of Germany the situation situ sUu- atlon is this Industrial development development development develop develop- ment the fortunate juxtaposition of coal and iron deposits the unparallel unparalleled ed gift gUt of the German people for organization organization organization or or- led to an expansion following fol following iol- iol lowing the Prussian Franco war on one of at the most striking details In which was the growth of German population population population tion from to approximately approximately approximately between 1870 and 1914 This population living on a a. territory having a relatively small area maintained itself only through its foreign trade through its ability to produce manufactured articles which it bartered against raw materials materials materials mate mate- rials and foodstuffs Great l Migration gration Foreseen Were it conceivable that the German German Ger Ger- man hold upon the foreign market could could be broken the consequence would be that It would no longer be possible for Germany to support her enormously swollen population since Germany could not produce the food rOOd necessary for tor her own people Once the foreign markets were closed millions of Germans would be compelled com com- compelled to migrate or perish by star star- Today oday we have arrived at atthe atthe atthe the situation where unless there be bea a change swift and still sun unforeseen een somewhere between fifteen and twenty twenty ty million Germans must emigrate In analyzing the situation which has thus developed it is essential to tog togo togo g go back for a moment to the circumstances circumstances circum circum- stances of the war and of the period which has followed the signing of ot the armistice and of at the treaty of or Versailles The war was the result of the unprovoked attack of q Ger Ger- r- r man many upon her French and Russian n neighbors In the course of ot which she destroyed Russia and crippled France for or long years The single chance for French recovery on the financial side has ha's lain and still HasIn lies Has in cap capacity and nd willingness of Germany Germany Germany Ger Ger- many to meet the reparations demands fixed in the treaty of Versailles Vers Versailles Ver Ver- s sailles fles and subsequently modified in inthe inthe inthe the severn several 1 conferences French Poll Policy C Clear ClearOn ClearOn On the morning of the armistice on every ever day since French policy has b been en perfectly clear A restored ed Germany was bound to b be a peril to France since a strong Germany had twice In 1870 1370 and in in 1914 attacked attacked at- at tacked ed the fJ French nation without warrant and aud for the purpose of ot removing removing removing re re- moving the tho French obstacle to German German German Ger Ger- man domination on the continent of Europe France Prance would only consent to such a restoration of Germany as would make the old danger new provided provided provided pro pro- vided Germany met the French demands demands demands de de- de- de mands as to and provided also the he recent allies of France joined joined join JOIn- ed d her in disarming Germany ana keeping Germany German powerless both by supervising her armaments and by guaranteeing French security N Now w looking back over the span of more than two years it is clear that the French conditions have not been met Germany has so far p paid id nothing save savo as she has been compelled compelled compelled com com- to make deliveries of arms ships and materials which she could not conceal or withhold She has evaded and defied her conquerors While France has marched arched steadily toward fiscal ruin as a consequence of at the burden laid upon her to re repair repair repair re- re pair German devastation while French as well as British taxpayers have groaned under the burden of now imposts the German has escape foreign ed payments and avoided home home l levies vl s. s Change of or Policy Necessary By the time the tho recent conferences ces of Paris and London arrived the situation atlon had developed In which It was not longer doubtful that unless some new policy were adopted Germany Germany Germany Ger Ger- many would Issue from the war victorious victorious victorious vic vic- since she would have havo t J i ed the fiscal ruin of her French antagonist antagonist antagonist an an- as she had already produced ed the political ruin of Russia while her British foe would be crippled and threatened by a German competition competition competition compe compe- which would mean something approaching disaster for the United Kingdom Meantime Meantime what was the development development development develop develop- ment of French policy polley Following the German attack and the allied victory victory vic vie tory toward which France had made the greatest single contribution and andin andin andin in which French sacrifice had been largest it lay with France to decide whether Germany should be so dealt with as asto to prevent the peril perU of a new German attack or permitted to regain regain regain re re- gain her old prosperity with the hope that in the meantime German purpose would change and with ith the the certainty that German payments f would be made Truth Becomes Apparent A good deal of nonsense has been written about the whole European situation but it was manifest that it was the duty of French statesmanship statesmanship statesmanship statesman statesman- ship to provide against any new Garman German Ger Gar J man attack whether such luch provision i should carry with it the destruction 2 1 of at contemporary Ger Germany or not la Ia lathe t the performance of at this duty French Frenc statesmanship could only weigh the interests of France They could only only only on on- ly consent to run risks with respect of Germany German provided they were assured assured as sa- of at German payments and of the protection of their allies ames Now v without going back over the a progress of ot events since tie the armistice armis armis- tice dice of Rethondes the fact stands out that the prospect of French r re- re on German payments has diminished with each succeeding g month There is less chance cham no now y of French recuperation through German reparations than at any moment mo met- went meat t since the end of the war Exactly Ex Ex- r. Ex-r. in the same fashion the prOS pros v pe poet t of at an Anglo-American Anglo or an English guarantee of French secure secure- t ty has similarly declined France France 1 today faces the moral certainty that I Germany wont won't pay and the the actual I certainty that her former associates will not undertake to defend France Franca if Germany does attack later French See Sec Duty Clearly Therefore the French people have to ask themselves the simple question ques QUes- question l' l tion Since Germany wont won't pay us US- a our allies wont won't protect us and Ger- Ger f f many will attack us when s she e cun can in l' l J s why should we let Germany recover to the point where she will be able to attack us So far no one has found an answer either in or out Of France and this fact is the central circumstance in the new Europea This situation rests on the fact that France has the power to destroy and every right to exerts the power given German purposes past and present German salvation has always rested rested rested rest rest- ed upon German willingness tomake to tomake make enormous payments which despite de do- despite spite their magnitude did not meet the sum total of German destruction and German willingness to recognize the results of the war and lay aside her aggressive policies In a word the Germans had to pay France and they had to cease to menace Franco Frances France If It they did both of these things It ft Itlay Itlay lay within the power of the u United States and Great Britain to ameliorate ate in German recovery and that thu to save Germany from tram ruin J 4 Germany Supplies S Weapon But the German has bas not been willIng will will- Ing lug to pay or to submit He has refused refused re re- fused money he has clung to his arms wherever possible ho he has redoubled redoubled redoubled re re- doubled his threats of revenge of the recovery of Loraine Alsace-Loraine of ot the future destruction of France He has silenced the voices and paralysed the efforts of precisely those nations whose self-Interest self and enlightened policy alike aUke contributed to make them willing to save Germany and he has armed the French with precIsely precisely precisely pre pre- pre pre- those weapons which must if used be fatal to him Wo We have come como now to something like a supreme crisis On the economic eco ceo side Germany has made vast strides toward regaining her old po po- But all aU this progress 8 will wUl i come to nothing if It she has now to face faco an extended allied occupation the seizure and operation of ot her I great coal districts the tho allocation of the Upper Sells to the Poles oles r Continued on Page Three S t ti tl i it v. 5 t t I l i r f i. i i GER GERMANY DOOMED I I II 9 I V From Page One I II and those of the Ruhr to Go the French If It In addition new tariff walls are j stretched across Germany If all se seI security security se- se I I and confidence are destroyed J i by the advance of allied armies J f then the end of the economic recovery I ery cry of Germany can be foretold I 1 promptly r Transformation to Follow Now when one talks of the dej destruction destruction de de- j of Germany the words r i have haTe a peculiar and limited meanIng mean mean- i ing Whatever happens millions of men and women will continue to dwell on German soil the nation cannot be destroyed What Is meant Is that the economic conditions can be so modified that millions of men M and women will have to migrate or ori I i starve and that this enforced migration migration migra migra- tion will bring about a total transformation transformation transformation mation of the situation of Germany I herself In reI alan to her neighbors and to the world v But Dut If it the population of Germany German jj Is la reduced to those limits which r represent rep rep- pv p- p v resent the capacity of the country to support Itself If H its Us mineral resources resources ces be are alienated by French and nd 4 J Polish occupation It if Its fore foreign trade is eliminated by the destruction destruct tion lion of German production through the abolition of confidence and credit essential to the present possession pos pos- possession session by the Germans of the necessary necessary necessary essary raw materials to keep their I machines working then we shall shan have once for all the end of the thew I w danger which has overhung France I for tor more than half haIr a century the t danger which has been expressed In I r two wanton Invasions with 0 fC which defy description hb Situation Unmistakable t No o one should mistake the Ger Oer- German y Germany has escaped jc matt man situation ii 1 with little disturbance to r ed the war I her sources of wealth outside of the q t. t r of her Lorraine iron fields and andy loss C t y r her shipping the latter of which she If can and Is making good with little f if r delay Such territory as she has so soi i I. I far far lost loot has not diminished materially mate mate- Y lallY her great coal holdings which S Pro are the basis of her prosperity Given Civo o given Biven foreign credits pariL par t o en eu tune time iL I J I r I credits which Amelca can supply Germany can become within a decade as potent a factor in the world markets as ever indeed if her great military expenses are abolIshed abolished abolished abol abol- she will be better off ort than t be be- e- e fore tore By contrast with France and It Italy ly lyshe she has no devastated areas her herloss herloss herloss loss in man power was far less proportionately proportionately pro pro- pro pro-I than that of either Latin country Moreover laB has with Great Britain France and Italy Italy Italy Ita Ita- Ita- Ita ly she has no foreign debt contracted contract contract- ed during the war and not a mortgage mortgage mortgage mort mort- gage upon her future Such debt as she has is domestic and can be controlled controlled controlled con con- trolled by her own tax laws If she can evade payment or reparations she will have won the war on the economic side and having won It on the economic side will presently be prepared to renew it on the military and political side with every prospect prospect prospect pros pros- of ultimate success Reparations in Cris Now this Is the bedrock of Ger Ger- man policy Germany Is fighting not to lose the war despite the military military mili mili- tary defeats and the treaties imposed ed upon her at Versailles But victory victor victory vic vic- tor tory or defeat turns upon the tho subject subject subject sub sub- of reparations It is not that the German Is fighting to reduce the sum of reparations with any purpose to pay what is possible having eliminated elimInated eliminated elim elim- the impossible No for alongside with the reparations campaign campaign cam carn- r goes the battle to establish the idea that Germany was not re responsible r responsible re- re I le for the war was the victim vic vie vie- I tim tint not the aggressor and therefore to establish the idea that the moral I basis on which the reparations claim rests is unsound Yet the fundamental fact as between between between be be- tween the French and the German has no changed and cannot change Either Germay must pay tho the French claims s and give evidence of having abandoned her aggressive policies with respect of I France rance or French policy and French power will combine combine combine com com- bine to make German recovery economic economic economic eco eco- first military second Impossible sible The problem has no new aspect aspect aspect as as- and no alternative answer can be fo found nd Moreover the situation does not stand still sUll on the contrary I the more clearly German policy In Indicates indicates In- In that Germany does not mean to pay the more potent becomes the party parry in France which demands that Germany shall be made powerless since she cannot be compelled to 1 1 p pay I View V Partially True Truo I II I know it Is popular to assert that French pursuit of such a policy which means no more than the effort ef effort effort ef- ef I fort to obtain security against a new attack since no repayment can be had for the injuries of the last is described in Saxon Anglo-Saxon countries as suicidal and France is held to b be insuring her own ruin at the moment she is bringing down the German edifice ed ed- But Dut this is only moderately true France is fiscally ruined if Germany does not pay but fiscal ruin and national ruin are quite different different different dif dif- ferent things and France is better I adapted than any other European nation to endure the general collapse of the existing economic system You can put the thing simply by saying that if It Germany Is destroyed all the world will suffer sutter from the Continued on Page Four VS GERMAN DOOMED From Page Three |