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Show Tighter Competition After War Demands Soil Fertility Be Maintained at Hidi Level J a Firm en t-; Taken From Soil In Bumper Crops Should Be 1'cplacet What will the coming transition transi-tion from war to peacetime economy mean to American a v riculture? That question has been raised with increasing frequency fre-quency not only bv dirt farmers farm-ers but by so-called agricultural agricul-tural economists, too, as Uncle Un-cle Sam's armies and fleets have won smashing victories overseas and as prayed-for peace becomes a closer possibility. possi-bility. One thing is clear. When the war j ends, the farmer's situation will be 1 : " ' j ." f-U I - ' i If , ? e - - II , 3 a good deal different from that of the manufacturer or industrialist. The farmer's peak production job will be completed. Vast stocks of food and fiber will be in storage; competition for markets will be keen. Industry, on the other hand, will be reconverting from war production pro-duction to the greatest peacetime output in history. The backlog of demand de-mand for virtually every commodity used in civilian life automobiles, machinery, building materials, refrigerators, re-frigerators, radios, beating equipment, equip-ment, household furnishings will be big enough to require years of high-geared industrial activity. Some economists believe that if peacetime industrial output and employment em-ployment remain high say at about 150 billion dollar income level annually an-nually the demand for farm products prod-ucts would be sufficient to absorb a total production at about 1943 levels. But even if the nation's efforts to maintain postwar production and employment succeed, farm economy must be prepared to withstand some shocks. The switch from peace to war will inevitably bring changes in farm methods to cope with new tech-I tech-I niques in marketing and production. In such a setup, the individual farmer who uses antiquated methods meth-ods or who fails to maintain the fertility fer-tility level of his soil is doomed to failure. Three Big Problems. Most farm authorities are of the opinion that postwar agriculture will 1 face three major problems: 1. Farm acreage, vastly expanded ex-panded to meet wartime food demands will have to be reduced. re-duced. That means more efficient effi-cient farming on fewer acres. 2. Farm surpluses may become be-come a peacetime headache. 3. War-spurred farm income will inevitably decline when the present abnormal demand for food slackens. In 1944 farm crop acreage goals totaled 371 million acres, compared with 325 million acre plantings in prewar years. That is an increase of 46 million acres. Commenting recently re-cently on the adjustments that will be necessary to fit postwar requirements. require-ments. Chester Davis, former AAA administrator and now president of the Federal Reserve bank of St. Louis said: "The farm plant has been expanded ex-panded beyond the capacity needed to supply abundantly the peacetime peace-time domestic market and any normal nor-mal export market that may be available. Farmers will face real need for acreage adjustments and in some areas shifts may be drastic." I The second problem farm sur pluses will not t e tr :ub'eorr.e so lung as the war lar.s Fc-.d needs of our Alhes arid liberated regains may keep it quiescent for a while even after Gerrrui r.y cracks up. But in sun:e future day it w:li become a wj rrisume rea 1 i . y . Reports from liberated countries indicate that the fu-d supply situation situ-ation there is K-ss aute than had been anticipated. France, the Balkans, Bal-kans, K.'L:i-;d and even eventually Germany may require less fuud from our supply than we hud been counting on. Stocks of goods in Great Britain are reported to be 5.50O.OU0 tons, against a normal 1 -uO.O'JO tons. These reserves have been built up substantially from lend-lease shipments ship-ments out of this country. If these were reduced to say, 2.U00.0UU tons when the war ends, there would be left about 3.500.01)0 for relief. Surveys Sur-veys by die Stanford Food Research Re-search institute support the belief ' i i . . i - . 3 s . "' - x " J , - i , 1 "si" . i v. v ! : . 1 s j -is--" 1 ' that Europe won't be much of a market for our food surpluses. When Germany Surrenders. Some decline in food prices can be expected after Germany's defeat, de-feat, for then both military and lend-lease lend-lease buying of farm commodities is likely to taper off. This need be only a gradual movement until some downward adjustment can be effected ef-fected in production volume. By the end of the Japanese war, the reconversion re-conversion from war to peacetime production of civilian goods should be well under way. Prices, however, could go to 90 per cent of parity for the basic crops. The government is pledged to step in at that level with support for at least two years after the war, so no further severe drop than that may be necessary. All of the foregoing factors spell competition in the farmer's postwar operations. Farmers can arm themselves them-selves now to meet that competition and to withstand the economic shocks that will accompany the transition period. If they do some straight thinking they can be stronger strong-er at the war's end than they were at its beginning. First of all, they can safeguard their future by keeping keep-ing their finances in a liquid condition, condi-tion, by buying war bonds, by shunning shun-ning debt and by avoiding the pitfalls pit-falls of overexpansion through the purchase of additional farm land. Secondly, they can take out an "insurance "in-surance policy" for long - range farm productivity by undertaking a soil fertility rebuilding program. Present high food prices have already al-ready lured some farmers into land speculation and overexpansion. Such recklessness brought ruin to millions mil-lions in the wake of World War I. It can bring disaster again this time. "During and immediately after the last war when food prices were even higher proportionately than they are now, many farmers were foolish enough to mortgage their own farms in order to buy more land," a recent statement of the Middle West Soil Improvement committee points out. "The sellers were canny can-ny operators who preferred to take their own cold profit on real estate rather than gamble on the chances of food prices remaining eternally high. "The memory of the crash and deflation that followed is still painfully pain-fully fresh. "After the present war, American farmers will have to compete in world markets. Because of current income levels the temptation to acquire ac-quire additional acreage is strong. Some farmers believe It is a smart move because with more and better bet-ter machinery available after the war and their suns coming home from the army, they will be able to work more land than hitherto. Homesteads for Soldiers. "The government is already planning plan-ning to give homesteads to servicemen. service-men. When this is done, the owner of an expensive farm will be in a teuh spot to produce crops in competition com-petition with the man who has no capital investment in the soil portion por-tion of his food factory. "The only way the American farmer can successfully com pete either in domestic or world markets in postwar years, is by producing crops at a lower cost per unit. In such a program, the steady use of mixed fertili7er containing nitrogen, phosphorus and potash will he an enormously important factor. More bushels per acre can, and will mean more food from less land. It w ill also mean more good food per acre to help build healthier human beings and farm animals in the future." The need for building up the soil's productivity is widely recognized recog-nized as a postwar "must." No less an authority than Secretary of agriculture agri-culture Claude Wickard recently declared: "Now is the time for farmers to worry about soil fertility." fer-tility." In answer to any farmer's statement state-ment that "My yields are better than ever," Secretary Wickard counters with this question: "Ask yourself how much better machinery and better plant varieties have had to do with those increases. Over much of our best farm land, better yields are the most pronounced pro-nounced cause of accelerated soil depletion a steady decline that most farmers can't see yet, but which could bring a nationwide crisis in soil fertility. "No great nation can afford to neglect the productivity of its soil. The problems of abundance, baffling baf-fling as they seem, are a challenge. They can be solved; and their solution solu-tion will be the gateway to a better way of living. But to the problems of steadily declining production there is no answer. That pathway eventually leads to decline and ruin. It not only is impossible to produce pro-duce abundantly on depleted soils; it is almost impossible to produce efficiently. Huge Crops Robbed Soil. "After four years of record-breaking record-breaking production for war, farmers farm-ers have special need for checking up on their soil resources and for repairing the effects of depletion." Such a checking up would in most cases reveal that the soil's fertility level is lower than it was in prewar years. .Fertility has been one of the necessary casualties in the battle to meet wartime food production goals. Peak-load croppings have taken a heavy toll of the soil's resources re-sources of nitrogen, phosphorus and potash. Rehabilitation of the soil is thus a necessity, if the fertility level is to be built up and the productive capacity of the land maintained in the competitive postwar period. All things considered, the cost of plowing, seeding and cultivating a Get It Early! "The War Food administration again calls on farmers to accept delivery of their fertilizers during the winter and early spring, when the manufacturing plants can make delivery most easily, and to store it in their barns and sheds for use when needed," P. H. Groggins, chief of the chemicals and fertilizers branch, advises. "The individual farmer can assure as-sure himself of suffloient fertilizer fertiliz-er by placing his orders as far as possible ahead of the season sea-son of use. If all farmers will do this, plants can be kept working work-ing at the capacity permitted by available labor. Continued maximum maxi-mum production and use of fertilizers fer-tilizers is necessary in support of the war food program." field is the same whether the crop yield be large or small. Therefore, the farmer who -is able to get big yields at a relatively low production produc-tion cost is the one who will make money when competition is keen. Attention to essentials is. ol course, important in any soil improvement im-provement plan for postwar years. In addition to good rotation, the growing of deep-rooted legumes, contour plowing where necessary and the return of manure and crof refuse to the soil, the use of mixed fertilizer is a No. 1 necessity. Qual ity as well as high yield will be important factors in the postwai farm market. Experience has dem onstrated that fertilized crops are o) higher quality and yield than unler-i unler-i tilized ones. In these days when farm machinery ma-chinery of all kinds is scarce, outfits out-fits to spread fertilizer may be hard to obtain. Frequently, however, companies selling crushed stone and ! other soil treating chemicals have ! equipment which may be rented at reasonable rates. When a large area Is to be covered, it is generally wisest to call on one of these companies com-panies to help with the job. A large dump truck, hauling a J spreader, can cover a big pasture in j rri,:3rkably short time.. V V" - r - V - ........ ' - |
