| Show i Baffle Battle Tides to Influence r il M M 1944 Political Campaign p L. L tM tM t r Close Observers Change Minds Express 4 Belief President Will Not Be Candidate v If War Ends by Spring By BAUKHAGE News Analyst and Commentator Service Union Trust Building Washington D. D C. C a i As the political campaign which will be over In a short year begins to increase in tempo it is interesting to note that noticeable shock recorded record record- ed by the reporters at a recent Wl White WhiteHouse whitehouse te House press and radio conference when the President tossed off of that r phrase when I am nm out of the I White House Taken in the context it was immediately immediately im im- u mediately clear that the President did not delimit the time clement element inthis in inthis th this statement and there was no real justification for the startled pause when pencils stopped scribbling and heads and eyebrows went up at the presidential remark Mr Roosevelt was merely pointing out in connection connection connection tion with the postwar rubber situation situation situa situa- f tion that he believed that any proposed proposed pro pro- V posed tariff to protect the synthetic rubber robber plants after the war should be vetoed and he implied that any President who vetoed such a measure measure meas meas- ure me might stir up a lot of opposition from the synthetic rubber r But we have become so accustomed accustomed S tomed toured to the idea that Mr Roosevelt himself thinks only in terms of his own regime without time or other limitations than an expression which seemed to indicate the opposite naturally naturally nat nat- caused a stir However It Is entirely possible that thit Mr Roosevelt will not be a candidate candidate can can- In 1944 1914 There are even those who enjoy making rash prophecies who are already saying he has made up his mind not to run nm at all under any circumstances This type of prediction is accepted in Washington Washing Washing- ton tan as being in that class of guesses which have about a 60 40 chance of being right But closer observers who do not choose to guess the Presidents President's inner thoughts but are thoroughly familiar with his manner of thinking deduce 1 from what they believe is past experience experience experience ex ex- s that he will not be a candidate candidate cans candidate can can- if the war Is over by next r spring This la is contrary to earlier prognostications that his desire to be w President when the prints blue for forthe forthe wI I the postwar world are Bre being drawn would incline him toward running f for a fourth term The explanation L. L is that he will not run nm unless he be has haa ha more than an even chance of at win win- ning End of 01 Conflict Although none of the army or navy officers cf of the top command will allow allow al al- low themselves to be quoted as saying saying say- say ing the war will win end early in 1944 a number of bolder and less constrained cond con con- trained strained d military folk are willing to say this Is possible It is interesting to consider that a year ear ago this summer when many Believed that invasion of northern I I Europe by the Allies would be undertaken undertaken un un- by the spring of 1943 few people were predicting even under tinder such ruch circumstances an rid nd of the Take for fO instance war early in fn 1944 a typical comment in a leading periodical peri peer Harpers Harper's written very little littleover littleover over a year ago In which it was said that Germany must complete the conquest of key positions po in Russia must halt or control the Anglo Amer I ican lean onslaught from the air and must hold northern Africa for a sortie lortie in the Middle East When w we e consider what has bas happened since we can see the progress which ha has s been made Far from any action in fn i which the word conquest could b bused be e used the In has s been driven beyond Its last Russian Russia t defense lines in many places Th The e ee dream of ot an African empire has b become become be be- e- e come the reality of bitter defeat an and d I despite desperate defense measures the most powerful air blows are being be ing lug struck against the Reich Japanese Situation the year Japans Japan's power powe r has begun to crumble at a rate an anin and andin d in a manner which makes It plain n that she will not have to be beaten beate n back island by Island and every Ja Jap Japon p on foreign soil killed The Mikado's Mikado S have become e exceedingly exceedingly ex ex- x adept at getting awa away y from points once expected to be last las t stands with remarkable alacrity y yr and apparent satisfaction In n their r own repeatability Therefore it Is not at nt all aU Impossible Impo s r sible that the President If it he Intends Intend s voluntarily to retire with the end of the fighting means that he will b be c out of the White House at his own behest before the Ides of November November November Novem Novem- ber 44 This situation if lit It does docs arise imposes Imposes imposes Im im- poses an interesting problem for the Democrats It is pretty generally agreed that the conservative element clement clementin in the Democratic party has been gaining in power in the last months when the President bestowed positions positions positions of key importance on the right wing of the party while many New Dealers faded Into the background When Vice President Wallace whom It was taken for granted would be the Presidents President's choice as a successor successor successor suc suc- cessor was dropped and his activIties activities activities ties placed In the more conservative hands of Hun Hull Crowley et etaL etaL aL aI it was plain that the original New Dealers were being relegated to the rear of the hall I GOP Attitude And while the burning highlights of the administration portrait are being be be- beIng i ing toned down m to more sober hues the Republicans seem to be outdoing themselves In an effort to show that I they can make use of the bright lexicon of youth as a reference work and select from It promising shibboleths shibboleths shib shib- bolet s who speak of action rather I than reaction I Of course Mr Willkie docs does not speak for the Republican party but buthe buthe he has a following which his supporters supporters supporters sup sup- porters hope will be reinforced by disgruntled former New Dealers aswell as aswell aswell well as others whose leanings although al though they have never been such that they could wholeheartedly support support support sup sup- port a Democratic regime are still far enough left to demand the most progressive candidate offered under any other respectable banner Meanwhile of course the President President President dent must according to the Inviolable inviolable inviolable lable principles of politics show no signs of intending to withdraw since it is written that you cant can't control your party unless there is a fairchance fair fairchance fairchance chance that you are going to continue continue continue con con- to be its active head Our political campaign of 1944 Is bound to be affected by the tide of I battle abroad General Arnold Explains On a mild mUd day with the Virginia countryside warm in the glow of I I autumn and the Potomac sparkling in the sunlight some 50 newsmen- newsmen correspondents columnists columnist radio comments commentators climbed tors-climbed climbed up the wide stone steps of the river entrance to the famous Pentagon PentagnA building General Arnold chief chic of Americas America's army air forces took his seat seat and began to talk The gist of his words you have read What he felt can only be guessed but he was faced with the proposition of explaining the obvious and he seemed just a little weary at the prospect Arnold Arnoldis ArnoldI I is a pleasant but spoken blunt fighting fighting fight fight- I ing man with wings and service rib rib- ribbons ribbons i bons won in service A few days before he happened to listen to a commentator who was I computing in dollars and lives and material the cost of the bombing raid of the great creat ball bearing ball bearing factory factory factory fac fac- tory in Schweinfurt Germany The general was exceedingly Irked What the commentator did not perhaps realize was the number of endless explanations of the obvious obvious obvious' obvious ob ob- which General Arnold has had to make since we entered the war And if Germany does crumble because her ber war effort is smashed it will be Arnolds Arnold's explanations as aswell aswell well as the bombs themselves that ought to get the credit If U he had bad not Dot been able to ex cx explain explain plain that Ameri American an bombers could tip fly in sufficient numbers into the heart of Germany In the light of day and hit a target with the precision to destroy it It we would never have havea a chance to prove it could be done There were few In high places either cither here or in Britain who believed such an absurd untried thing was practical But h he had his chance and proved his thesis Then when the experts were convinced when he was beginning to swing Into action action ac ac- ac- ac tion lion the public began to exclaim at atthe atthe the cost of his his' raids That must have been hard bard to take And so he sat for an hour reeling off figures recounting details which will never be printed until peace comes and most effective of all for forthe forthe the layman showing the greatly enlarged photographs of the destruction destruction tion those great daylight precision raids accomplished |
