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Show POLITICAL. Independent Political Forecast. Tho presidential campaign is hal(orcr( and the election is less than four-ceka off. Impartially considered, whathi lire situation to-day7 What are tho Indications, Indica-tions, and what has been tho character of tho developments wo have witnessed? Six weeks ago unprejudiced students he. liovod and declared that Mr. Bryan's election el-ection was out of tin question. Joins, Stone were extremely hopeful, if not confident of succes, They are still hopeful, though "they dscliue to give-out give-out any serious and rational estimates. Ex-Senator Gorman stated tho othor day that, whilo the outcomo was uncertain, un-certain, "tho drift was toward Brynn, and decidedly so." But it is generally conceded that Mr. Bryan haB been losing steadily in the far Wost. A special cor respondent of tho Boston Herald' has just returned from a tour of investigation extending over the sixteen states west of the Misdouii. These states havo 101 electoral votes, and only fifteen of these went to McKinley in 1808. Making a conservative estimate, tho correspondent correspond-ent referred to declares that at least thirty-seven of theso votes will go to the republican ticket next November. Thirteen Thir-teen votes are regarded as doubttul, and if they should all bo given to Bryan, the net gain to McKinley would be twenty-two twenty-two votes. In 1806 Bryan received 176 electoral voies. Tho loa of twenty-two would reduce his total to 154, and it is clear that he must gain seventy electoral vot eBenst ot the Missouri River in order to carrv the election. Where will he cat these votes? Not in the east, and not in the middle West. Assume for the sake of tbo agrument that he will recover re-cover all four of the southern states which went republican on the eound-monoy eound-monoy Issue-Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, and Kentucky. This would givo him thirty additional votes. But he wiil still fall far short of tho necessary neces-sary number. Tho Evening Post of Now York says with reference to tho situation : Public attention will bo concentrated upon tho states of tho middle West during dur-ing the last weeks of tho campaign. It is impossible to take soriouely Crocker's claim that he will carry New York for himself and Bryan, and nobody of any understanding doubts that McKinley will letaln Connecticut and Now Jersey. Indiana and Illinois aro tho two which will be most warmly contested. The Urst has been closo and doubtful for a generation, and remains so to-day. Tiio second was long accounted surely Republican, Rep-ublican, butgavo Cleveland about 27,000 plurality in 1802, whilo in 1890 Me-Kinloy's Me-Kinloy's plurality leaped above 142,000. ! |