Show 7 ar 0 national topics interpreted by william Bruck bruckart arit washington while all of us na are wondering whether the new year upon which we so sees see great recent recently ly em cm warthes year barked will wl see an end to the misery and dulye suffering rin g wrought by the depression wondering whether the presidents program for or spending our way out of the depression Is going to work wondering whether our countless domestic problems can be solved I 1 believe most ot or us have been overlooking a grave danger clanger that appears now to be rushing headlong at us ua at the risk of being jingoistic I 1 am going to record here a conviction that a gigantic war will be under way ere we turn into the lane marked 1835 1935 some months ago I 1 wrote in these columns observations gathered in washington that japan was on a fence undetermined which way to jump japan seems now to have decided her course unless quickly changed will lead directly rind with startling suddenness into conflict with russia the great russian bear la Is fully aware of tills this war preparation Is going on there and it Is going on feverishly in japan but that is not all clouds of storm portending intensity gregath are gathering in europe they center about another franco german conflict and russia Is ls watching the potentialities of that situation as well military and naval students here and there are some of the greatest of the military and naval scientists in the world located in washington assure me that neither a conflict between the japanese and russians nor a franco german controversy ending in arms can be localized others among the peoples will be drawn in despite efforts to keep the peace I 1 do not know nor does any of the authorities whom I 1 have consulted know whether the united states can remain outside of the lines of battle once they are drawn my aly suspicion Is that the united states slates would be dragged in nations in this age cannot live to themselves alone A picture of conditions among the powers at this writing as given me by men acquainted with the details shows relationships to be something like this russia and prance france regard hitler iced germany as a constant menace and they have understandings that take in poland and several other lesser states that always have been a aligned with france as military allies it might be called an entente then germany and japan each aware of the forces at work against them have been reported as trying to establish some sort of an agreement to act in concert against russia italy likewise la Is said to be playing one group against the other in an effort to gather something for herself and behind the scenes so to speak the british john bull Is shown as trading for advantages between the two groups seeking all of the while to avoid a european conflict but apparently out in the open or nearly so eo in support of japan against russia 0 0 wilfrid fleisher elsher Fl tokyo correspondent spon dent of the new york herald tribune report uneasy uneas y ed to his about japan per peba the other day that gon gen sadao araki japanese war minister had called tho the attention of ills his people in a speech to the fact that this Is 11 dog year lie ile explained that japanese greet 1031 1931 with pleasure for in a dog year things come eastly easily lie ile Iden identified tilled a 4 jog dog year as 03 meaning smooth sailing balling in nil all affairs there are a good many men in high places of our government who shuddered a bit when they read of general arakis statement they read tn in his lines an intention to employ 1034 1934 as a year in which to attempt to w weld e id the civilization of the orient and the western world a year to launch a holy mission such a religious fervor cont contains dins portents that are not pleasant to contemplate as much because of the indirect as because of the direct effort of lighting the fuse As the political maneuvers continue a good many economic factors and developments have been going on unnoticed while we here in the united states worried about the mortgage that was due or about a job or about some other purely domestic matter for instance a brief cable dispatch a few days ago told of an arrangement by which japan was trading finished textiles tor for indian cotton also japan has been buying scrap iron for a year or more that has been almost the only market for scrap iron which the united states has had but it has been a good market freight cars that are not of sufficient lelent value to be repa repaired red are being broken d down own and the scrap shipped to japan and last but of great importance la Is the lews report that vast v its t deposits it of nickel have been discovered in mongolia nickel as aa every ono one knows Is a highly important metal la in war flans and the depo deposits alts as large or larger than those in canada are being worked to tho the fullest so it seems to me that when president roosevelt spoke in a dinner speech commemorating the late president wilsons Wll WIl sona sons birthday that there was danger of war he told the country then of a danger that ts la much more grave than he desires to admit at this time but it if war does doea come all of our problems will bo be changed at once unemployment will disappear quickly farm surpluses will be absorbed public works debts taxes credit currency questions all of these will be changed and in their place will come new problems 0 0 president roosevelt Is following out a policy in respect of hla his dealings with con fear to oppose gress that he president began when he was forced to call it into extraordinary session last march then through circumstances resulting from the distressed condition of the country at the moment the president was able to formulate a program tor for relief in piecemeal fashion congress did ills his bidding lie ile submitted a reo ree one day and a few days later it was enacted into law ile he and his advisers wrote most of 0 the legislation before it was submitted formally to the house or senate now the president Is doing the same thing ile he saw tho the advantages advant ngoa of the system that he was forced to use once and to Is capitalizing again on the personal popularity which he has throughout the country consequently his speech hla his message on the state of the union I 1 was in the form of generalities ne he made riot not a single specific recommendation men dation but they are forthcoming now in numbers oen by one the projects of hla his plan move from tile the white house to the capitol there to be accorded support by the tremendous majority which tho the democratic party holds few if any of them will be rejected the reason to Is the democratic majority Is afraid to oppose the president politicians even in the presidents own party are mystified by his wide popularity and when a politician Is mystified he know what to do about it I 1 the result la Is that the president la Is going to get on as ho he desires with consolidation or expansion or extension of his recovery plans a bout about as aa he desires republican leaders in congress are not going to raise much of a toss fuss their policy Is to let the democrats take all of the rope they can use and hope they will trip themselves democrats count on the personal popularity of the president to carry them along to reelection election re for they dont see sea anything else to do and while the subject under discussion Is the personal popular ity of the president washington observers attach great importance to his personal visit to the halls of congress for delivery of his message ou on the state of the union 0 0 present indications are that there will be little meddling with the tax laws aws this session avoid new the program of tax levies the t h e administration as thus far unfolded Is read by as avoiding new tax levies until congress returns in january 1035 in the meantime the me congressional elections will have been held and the average person Is not going to set get excited about future taxes the tha democrats will be able to cam campaign laign without having to haht republican argument calling attention to increased burdens of taxes but more taxes will have to be levied in another year the president has proposed to congress the greatest peacetime budget in history a budget that proposes the appropriation of that to Is almost twice as aa much money actually as there Is in the united states for the money stock of the government ranges only slightly more than so it means that government credit government debt will be boosted to new heights unless our government wants to do the dishonest thing of defaulting on its obligations the notes and bonds it sells on which the money Is borrowed for budget use will have to be repaid the taxpayers will pay and pay aud and payl pay for instance when the public debt reached its hitherto high point a bout about the interest on it amounted to annually or about a month more than a day the figures are stupendous but they can be larger it if the present average rate of interest paid by the treasury Is continued that la Is if the government does not have to pay a higher rate than the 3 34 per cent now paid the interest bill on the debt of about will approach a year mr air roosevelt Hoo sevelt said in his budget message that the dat ought not be allowed to go higher than 0 by br wot warn r X Nw panr |