Show U. U S. S Awaits Second Phase o of J Jap p Ci Crisis isis When Abrogated Pact Dies Next Wint Winter r On Probation Nippon lay May Alter Tactics to Keep American Friendship By fly RICHARD CREELY indicated b by br Western Newspaper Union WASHINGTON U Is vv Americas America's trouble with Japan worrying you Reap Real this For the ITle past few years ars the Ille relations between Japan and the tile United States Stales have been a n source of anxiety to 10 friends of o I peace in both countries and foreign forein statesmen diplomats and publicists pub publicists have hate between be be- predicted war tween Japan and the tile United States and have expressed astonishment aston that the tTe United States should not see that war in the immediate future is inet inevitable table and hasten to place our country on a II war tear footing A very t timely mely statement except that It was written in 1911 Today with Japanese American relations on the brink of another crisis it seems equally timely But Dut if It history repeats Itself the Rising Sun Empire Empire Em Em- pire of the Son of Heaven may again come to terms with Uncle Sam Today's crisis was precipitated when Secretary of State Stale Cordell Hull suddenly abrogated the trade treaty of 1911 which was signed a few years after President Theodore Roosevelt had used the mailed fist to calm an Oriental uprising It comes after more than two years of incidents involving American nationals nationals na na- na in the Chinese war zone during durIng during dur dur- ing which protests have been smilingly smil ly in ty rejected by Tokyo It comes after aller Uncle Sam has decided to emulate emulate em em- ula te Theodore Roosevelt and use the mailed fist again Expires Next Year Five months from now on January Janu Janu- ary any 26 26 1940 the abrogated treaty will automatically expire permitting permit ting flag congress to impose an arms embargo embargo em em- bargo and other trade restrictions against Japan She has has' just a few tew more months months' probation left and she must make up her mind very soon Theres There's a lot at stake slake As shown in the chart below the theUn Un United lied States has been supplying Nippon more than hall half her Imported materials of war An embargo would not prevent continuance of H H p 1 M fir i if T Tf I v v n i 4 L w V t W A h. h v K- K i iu u h lh MW i r t f I f 1 r if V r M M t ef I E N ar I l k mW lit l fl- fl fr 4 10 s i Jt w- w wT T l i 01 ia mI 1 ry M Mit 4 I. I ot- ot in Jr l m W I l t 4 1 M uhl fh rn t it tW n to ll f AAI j iv wh sap wAt I y J 4 x i X UI tt t s 's t j T j d V f sl I. I hwd r 1 tk t I. I u a our tf 1 mil 4 IH of Mf et M n I In nr i 1 4 t I r Jf f ii V I 1 IM I. i I A d W i Iti l brio lK l 1 1 y i t t f I In I. dl tw Wr iJ Iff r If It r t 4 I Ii i wl jl 1 tc t l f c g s. s I Hm M It wr Wr o a j r 4 f f re b In Ii 10 olur 1 r h tj t t t. t a t d U l'-U- Jr r. r h t t n M Nh lh mt amt day J hIM l mi I t 4 y x a f tM 4 il 1 fib IL s v 4 1 vt ff li If U. U It J 4 H I 9 sA I I M i 1 j 1 i. i f 1 D y h i I v-fj- v i os vs' vs f Vf TT t tt k r C Ct t t 1 M i V f l t r J 1 f f t JyA Uh d r La tI i d t o I i I 7 d 1 f fI I rI i. i V A Jad f j t I j i k f f j lalY r Y y y yf rt r k c i j t 1 p Hi 1 r Ire e 4 l a S1 l t ta r l y a f J. J l f d II r I. I l i tt J N M. M a. a DEAD TREATY TREATY Next Next January this treaty signed by Secretary Secretary Secre Secre- tary of State Philander Knox in 1911 will trill die officially the conflict against China and the tub sub rose ram war with Russia but it would put a serious crimp in Japans Japan's Ja Ja- Japans Japans Japan's pans pan's plans In the first place she cannot turn lurn to Britain France or Germany for these war materials because all those nations are utilizing ing lag every resource In their own rearmament rearmament rearmament re re- re- re armament pi programs The new pact with Germany signed in direct retaliation retaliation re reo against the United States Stales the day after alter the 1911 treaty was abrogated abrogated ab ab- carries little economic weight weight Its its it's just a military agreement agree agree- ment Japan Buys Material Scrap iron is not the only material ma ma- material at stake Often forgotten are Japans Japan's heavy purchases purchase of Amen Ameri American can machinery for manufacturing war materials These purchases have been especially heavy the past two years and a few months ago In gold was shipped from Tokyo to 10 the United States for additional additional addi addi- machinery which will take almost al al- almost most a year to fabricate If U the embargo Is placed in effect before this machinery Is finished delivery will be bt blocked In itself a serious blow to Japan the shock would be doubly hard because the new parts are designed to supplement what she has already Installed Precise tool machine steel fabricating and manufacturing auto-manufacturing specifications required to dovetail with her latest plants cannot be obtained else else- where So most of the American equipment already Installed must be thrown out Several things might happen before before before be be- fore next January the burden rests with Japan not with Washington The optimistic viewpoint is that Americas America's embargo threat will stimulate stimulate stirn a hasty completion of the warin war warIn warin in China whereupon Japan would feel free to relax relax- and again seek the good graces of western nations Or Or she may suddenly sue for peace on the best possible terms Japan May lay Get Angry And heres here's the pessimistic viewpoint view view- viewpoint point The American abrogation which President Roosevelt has bas termed an act short of war may maybe maybe maybe be considered not so short by Ja Ja- pan sure Cock maddened or des des' one one ne way or another she another she might decide the United States action ac ac- ac lion tion warrants hostilities But Dut Japanese are smart Though their militaristic leaders plunge heedlessly into war scoffing at con can consequences sequences the run mine-run Tokyo businessman businessman busi busl will wm think twice lie He will recall that in 1929 American purchases pur pur- purchases chases reached a peak of By 1937 thanks to Americas America's distaste for Japanese aggression this had been cut In half to halt to Last year these exports dropped still more Although the first five months of 1939 showed a gross gross of compared to only In the same tame period of 1938 Am American rican economists point out that the higher price of silk Is re reo Reaction in U C. C S. S Most Important to Americans is another question Would we suffer suiter by y placing an embargo against Japan Ja Ja- panT pan anT Agriculturally speaking no Although Although Al Al- though Japan was once our best beat cotton coton cot cot- ton on customer the shift from commercial com com- mercial to arms staples has brought a steady decline in fiber exports In la the first five file months of 1937 Jaan Japan Ja pan an bought bales In 1938 1933 for lor the same period only bales were shipped This year it dropped to bales Restricted exports export to Japan would inevitably mean restricted imports as well and It Is here that Japanese Japanese Japa nese trade would suffer suiter most heavily ily Silk once In heavy demand by the United States has already become a drug on the market even though American manufacturers took In the first five months of 1939 One reason for the lack of ot demand is development o of silk substitutes several of which are Just being perfected here A As As a are re re- suit sult Japanese people are now wearing wear wear- ing their own silk clothing instead of American cotton Such Is the Import of Secretary Hulls Hull's pre treaty tion In six months well we'll probably know the outcome |