Show bruckart Bruc Bru kars charts digest early political activity presages bitter 1940 presidential campa campaign s agn widespread movement away from new deal philosophy of government worries democratic leaders po popularity ti larity of president yet to be evaluated by WILLIAM BRUCKART service national press washington D 0 there seems to W VV be no doubt that tho the political mill tor for 1040 1940 hns has begun to grind earlier than has happened in almost any modern time politicians and political forecasters alike agree that the activity tho the advance agents of the 1940 campaign with its notional national conventions and presidential nominations and national elections is evident now to a greater extent than has been recorded in almost any other quadrennial period it Is to bo be recognized of 0 course that there would be more intensive effort in advance of tho the 1940 1040 elections than occurred prior to the 1030 1930 national elections because presumably at least both great political parties will bo be sorting over the condi candidates di A AL bt LANDON will not havo have its as much voice in selection of tho the republican bandl dats data as mr Rog rodsevelt sevelt will have in making the democratic choice so we ar approach the things that are to be considered and dealt with as campaign questions next year as seen from this distance Is new deal on the wane I 1 believe it can safely be said as a fact recognized by most able political students that the 1038 1938 elections with the attendant increase in ht republican strength in the house and senate together with the evident trend of thinking throughout the country that there Is a widespread movement away from the new deal philosophy of government how tar far it has gone or how far it may yet go how much the personal popularity of president roosevelt has waned or how much it may yet fluctuate and how vigorously mr roosevelt Js Is opposed within his own party are factors yet to be evaluated but that evaluation has begun hence the activity within the democratic ranks the fact that th t there Is a trend away from the new deal philosophy y not all of those policies but a very great many of them is the factor that la is causing democrats new as well as to scramble around there Is more under cover maneuvering tor for delegates to the democratic national convention going on right now than I 1 have witnessed thus tar far in advance during any of the last seven preliminary battles the faction ot of the democratic party that may be roughly delineated as headed by vice president garner sen pat harrlson harrison of mississippi and senator byrd of virginia the old liners appears determined to rf rid id the party of radical leadership the group which has stood by president roosevelt new dealers through thick and thin Is overlooking no opportunity to keep the democratic label pinned upon their faction G 0 P has tactical advantage within the republican ranks there are undoubtedly more of those waiting to see which way the cat will jump than there are among the democrats the republicans however have one distinct advantage they can attack anything and everything the new deal administration has done they do not need to de fend anything which is the handicap that burdens each faction of the democrats to a greater or less extent moreover the republicans are not burdened with the will of any onu one man to which they must give consideration that is to say neither former president hoover nor gov alt all london landon the nominees in 1932 and 1936 respectively will or can have as much voice in sel selection edtion of the next candidate as mr roosevelt ordinarily would have in making the democratic choice this condi mom joa springs from the fact that as president mr roosevelt retains titular lea leadership dershin of his party and landon having taken a licking in turn need not be accepted by the rank and file of the party or by republican wheel horSeS as 1118 having any greater rights than others and by the samo same token the roose velt leadership complicates tho the democratic picture since ho he has stated with great frequency and with an emphasis that cannot be denied that there Is no turning back ho h a can bo be regarded as determined to insist upon selection of a democrat le lc candidate either himself or someone else next year who will push tho the new deal forward and that position boys and girls Is what the old line eno faction of tho the party seem acorn determined now to overturn As a matter of cold fact it appears from all of the information available to me that mr Roosevel ts de tion on this point is really the fundamental da basis for the current canyon between the now new dealers and the old liners again none con can foretell how for far it will go but it con can be sold said without equivocation that if that schism continues up to the 1040 nominating conventions the 1024 convention fight between william gibbs mcadoo and al smith will appear as a ten tea party this bitterness con can be just as deep seated as that small G 0 P machines demand recognition it should not bo be overlooked however that there is hair pulling in prospect on tho the republican side us as well it extends down to the grass roots because of individual thinking that has been taking place this condition results through lack of a federal political machine dozens of small machines have been wagging their own tolls tails tor for so long that they now are demanding recognition tion from the brass hats at the top further since there Is a growing belief ballet that the republican presidential nomination in 1040 1940 Is worth something some thing that tha t Is that the republicans have a chance after eight years of political drouth there Is an extraordinary crop of favorite sons coming forward concerning the prospective campaign itself there again is that uncertainty about mr Roosevel ts personal popularity about the prestige he has or will be ible ie to lend to the mantle bearer or 01 the democratic party there Is likewise the question as to how much of the new deal ought to bo be discarded and how much ought to be kept and it is not an easy decision to make there Is for instance no question in my mind but that voters everywhere ore are getting disgusted with too much government I 1 do not mean to inter that they are arc unanimous but the evidence cumulates that the federal government is engaging in too many functions that it is invading private rights too for far that its general scope Is beyond what government was designed to be and that more and more people are saying there ought to bo be some laws repealed rather than that there ought to be a law 11 government spending causes dissatisfaction another obvious sentiment shows a with continuation of government spending and the creation of added debt with this of course Is coupled the general fear of addeo adde taxes it Is quite widespread this feeling that some gloomy years are ahead while the money flowed as free as water there was no lack of takers A change appears to have taken place however and from all quarters one hears expressions or questions as to how high the taxes will have to be to pay off even a part of the debt A third thing that stands out wherever political leaders talk over the campaign problems Is the matter of unemployment which of course includes the question of whether government would not be serving better it if it omitted attempts to ire reform business it sifts down to some of the basic new deal policies and say what you will it is a rod hot subject it remains as a tact fact that there were 10 or 12 million unemployed when mr roosevelt took office and there are arc at least 10 million now voters are asking therefore whether and how long such a situation can continue without a collapse all of these questions it is to be noted strike very close to every voter in one way or another it likewise comes within the range of thought that the man who is elected next year man because no woman is yet included in the list will have a tough time satisfying even a majority of the people just as a rail fence guess or maybe it Is a hunch anyway I 1 believe the next president will be good tor for only one term ile he will not be popular after tour four years As a further guess I 1 have an idea that the candidate who will be elected next year will be the man who paints the th greatest frea test picture of gloom about the situation iTte pleased leased by western newspaper |