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Show 1HE DAILY UTAH CHRONICLE ARTS&ENTERTAINMENT Friday, March 3, 2006 Aaron Allen's Predictions and Opinions Best Picture Will Win: "Brokeback Mountain" Should Win: "Munich" Oscar! Oscar! Oscar! Aaron Allen Chronicle Writer The big question Sunday night won't be if the racist, Los Angeles parable-people from "Crash" will beat the galloping gay cowboys in "Brokeback Mountain" for the Best Picture prize. The big question is: Will Aar- on Allen eat his own weight in clay if "Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit" doesn't win the Oscar for Best Animated Film? Crazy-eyed A&E Editor Eryn Green and his uncanny assistant, Ben Zalkind, have collected 165 pounds of Grade-A Montana clay, ready to force-feed it down my skinny throat if my prediction doesn't bear fruit. But just in case the possible death-by-gorging fate of a lowly movie critic doesn't pique your interest, here is the rundown of the five Best Picture nominees and their chances of sweeping up swag at the 78th Annual Academy Awards. The show begins Sunday, March 5, at 6:30 p.m. on ABC. Best Director Will Win: Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain" Should Win: Steven Spielberg, "Munich" "Munich" Directed by Steven Spielberg Here is the film that should win the top prize, but won't. Steven Spielberg is at the top of his game with this spellbinding, suspenseful and artistically elegant thriller about the vengeful aftermath of the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre. Spielberg and his screenwriters—Eric Roth and "Angels in America" scribe Tony Kushner— tweak the story into a commentary on modern culture clashing. The very last shot is the key. "Munich's" Oscar chances took a plunge when Spielberg decided to let the film speak for itself instead of stoking the fires of debate—big mistake. It's the kind of film that demands discussion. Spielberg wasn't there to direct it, so the film has dropped off the radar. Too bad. Best Actor in a Leading Role Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, 1 "Capote" Should Win: Terrence Howard, "Hustle and Flow" Best Actress in a Leading Role Will and Should Win: Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line" Best Actor in a Supporting Role Will Win: George Clooney, "Syriana" Should Win: William Hurt, "A History of Violence" Best Actress in a Supporting Role Will Win: Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener" Should Win: Amy Adams, "Junebug" Best Original Screenplay Will and Should Win: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, "Crash" Best Adapted Screenplay Will Win: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain" Should Win: Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, "Munich" Best Animated Film Will and Should Win: "Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit" "Brokeback Mountain" Directed by Ang Lee Even if you haven't seen it, you know all about the controversy: Jazz owner and Megaplex mogul Citizen Miller—er, I mean, Larry Miller—booted this beautiful and heartbreaking romance between two cowboys from his local theater because...oh, I don't know. Maybe he took issue with the acting or the directing. It couldn't have been for some knee-jerk, homophobic, bow-to-the-biddies reason. Nah. "Brokeback" has long been considered the front-runner—it swept the critics' awards, including those in the Utah Film Critics circle—but it may have peaked prematurely. The love was given, early and often, so if Academy voters are sick of kissing boot, they will vote for... "Good Night, and Good Luck." Directed by George Clooney Best Actor nominee David Strathairn (Can you pronounce his last name? I can't.) plays broadcast journalist and freedom crusader Edward R. Murrow in this chilling, blackand-white docu-drama set in I95os-era McCarthyism. You want to give George Clooney's timely and efficient film some kind of award (Robert Elswit's cinematography, George Clooney and Grant Heslov's screenplay), but the competition is too fierce. "Good Night" might have had better luck in a less crowded year. Below-the-Line Categories Best Art Direction "Memoirs of a Geisha" Best Cinematography "Memoirs of a Geisha" Best Costume Design "Memoirs of a Geisha" Best Film Editing "Crash" Best Makeup "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" Best Original Score John Williams, "Memoirs of a Geisha" Best Song "It's Hard Out Here for Pimp," from "Hustle and Flow" Best Sound Mixing "Walk the Line" Best Sound Effects Editing "King Kong" Best Visual Effects "King Kong" Sins of Omission Best Actor: Russell Crowe, "Cinderella Man" Best Supporting Actress: Maria Bello, "A History of Violence" Best Makeup: "The New World" Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, "Syriana" Best Visual Effects: "Star Wars Episode 3: Revenge of the Sith" "Capote" Directed by Bennett Miller Philip Seymour Hoffman will give a delicious acceptance speech when he wins the Best Actor Oscar for his deadon portrayal of opportunistic writer Truman Capote, the man who sacrificed his soul for his art. What actor can't relate to that? He's a shoo-in. Best Pic- "Crash" Directed by Paul Haggis If any film can dismount the cowboys, it's this staggering mosaic of racism in modern Los Angeles. Even if it doesn't conquer the "Moun- 1 tain," director Paul Haggis and his writing partner Bobby Moresco will take home the little groinless man for their original screenplay, and Hughes Winborne will win for his complicated editing. |