Show t 2 D THE SALT LAKE TRIBUNE SUNDAY MORNING NOVEMBER' ' i i Poll Shows Republican GOP Would Add 46 Seats ms Will They Keep Their Seats in Next Year’s Election? In House if Election Were Held Today Vote Reveals for ion surveys just completed Publisher Gannett Gannett’s GEORGE on 244 250 220 196 200 150 100 50’ 0 1EZ 1930 1932 1934 1936 The bar chart shows the number ef seats by which the Demo- -: crats led the Republicans in the house of representatives hi each election since 1930 The last bar for 1938 indicates what would probably happen If the congressional election were held today The estimate is based on results of an American Institute survey 1 of public sentiment ) sug- would foster companies which distribute Do you 67 Yes 33 No One of Mr Gannett’s principal arguments ' for his corporate program is that the purchasing power of the working mass would be increased thus in the long run compensating the companies for their extra disbursements to employes “Instead of taxing companies for not distributing all their profits to stockholders” he said in his speech “I would give additional tax relief to those companies that distribute profits to their employes It would be easy to devise air incentive of this sort which would encourage companies to give workers a wage dividend thus increasing their purchasing power’’ Comments from voters in the survey reflect the same belief Most typical comment: “This plan would help business because the common people would have more money to spend” But the minority of voters are suspicions of workers’ dividends They believe along: with a number of labor leaders that corporations which give their employes bonuses and stock dividends often do so in an attempt to stall off demands for higher wages It is to meet this objection that Publisher Gannett would have a workers’ representative sit on the board of directors “This representative of labor” says Gannett “will know the financial condition of the company He will understand the problem the corporation faces He will know that the policy (of sharing profits) is being carried out conscientiously and that the workers in the organization are getting as large a share of the earnings as it is possible and wise to give them while keeping the corporation strong and Its future secure” Farming West Less Cordial The proposal for tax reductions on profit sharing companies stirs up sectional differences of opinion East of the Mississippi in the heavily industrialized sections of New England the middle Atlantic states and the east central states the survey vote is overwhelmingly in favor of Publisher Gannett’s idea But west of the Mississippi opinion is less cordial There are two probable explanations for this First people living in the farming and ranching areas of the midwest have less reasop to favor the proposal than industrial workers because they would receive less direct benefit Second farmers may fear that if taxes are reduced on big business the difference will have to be made up by taxes from other sources including perhaps from themselves It is noteworthy that farmers reached in the poll are against the plan by a small majority in fact the only group opposed to It Their vote was 48 per cent in favor 52 per cent against All other occupational groups in the survey — business men professional men skilled and unskilled workers W P A workers— favor the scheme by majorities of more than 6 to 4 The divergence of interest between farmers and workers on this particular question underscores again the enormous difficulties in the path of a “share-the-wealt- Marginal Democratic Seats in Congress The' following table shows the number of seats in the house of representatives won 6 per cent or less in the 1936 elections and which are therefore presumably the cratic scats gin of NO SEATS by Democrats by most vulnerable a marDemo- WON BY DEMOCRATS 1936 BY MARGINS OF: Less Than 54 of 54 — 56 of Major Party Vote Major Party Vote IN New England Slates Maine New Hampshire Vermont chusetts Rhode Island Connecticut Massa- Middle Atlantic States — New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Delaware Maryland West Virginia East Central States 10 10 10 21 Ohio Indiana Illinois Michigan 7 West Central Stales None Farmer-Labo- ’ r party Following is the vote in the survey by sections and by prin- cipal occupations: Should Taxes be Reduced on Companies Which Distribute Profits to Their Workers? None ‘ Montana Idaho Colorado Wyoming Utah Nevada Arizona New Mexico Pacific Coast States : None 1 California Oregon Washington 47 29 NOTE — An average shift of 6 per cent in each section would change approximately 76 seats as the table indicates This calculation is based wholly on averages and does not pertain to any particular district For example a congressman elected in a New England district hya margin of less than 3 per cent in 1936 might still be reelected in the face of an average shift in sentiment for the section around him Owyig to a local political situation in his district he might run counter to the average trend But the system of average shifts if used to predict the last four congressional elections would have sulted in an average error of only six seats in 435 Party in Power Loses Seats In Off-YeHistory Shows ar By INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC 152 dailies directors? Rocky Mountain States 250 of important 65 Yes No- 35 Do you think Corporations would have less labor trouble if workers "had the right to elect a representative on the board of Virginia Kentucky Tennessee North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Alabama Mississippi Arkansas Louisian Texas Oklahoma Since 1930 opinion profits to their workers favor this plan? Southern States Democralic Majority in Ihe House chain cross-sectio- Wisconsin Minnesota Iowa Missouri Kansas Nebraska North Dakota South Dakota Will Democratic Lead Be Cut? of a industrial peace by narrowing the gulf between capital and labor The average American voter likes these ideas The Institute’s census conducted among a repren of citizens sentative m every state found sentiment as follows on the two plans: “It has been suggested that the federal government reduce taxes T Today’s results underscore again the fact that the Democratic party is less popular than President Roosevelt Last week the Institute reported Rbosevelt’s current strength at 628 per cent whereas the combined vote for Democratic congressmen in today’s survey is 56 per cent — a difference of 68 Copyright 1937 by Institute of Public Opinion All rights reserved head gested in a recent speech in Buffalo that workers be allowed to have representation on the board of directors of American corporations and that taxes should be made lighter on companies who share their profits with employes The adoption of these proposals in Mr GALLUP Director American Institute of Public Opinion NEW YORK Nov 27—In political clubs in the cloakrooms of congress in the secret meeting places of political strategists thoughts of the 1938 congressional campaign are uppermost 8s the new year approaches With politicians peering into the future for signs of a trend in sentimdnt the American Institute of Public Opinion here presents the first survey of congressional party prospects for next year — the first preview of the 1938 election For five weeks the Institute’s army of more than 500 field interviewers have been asking thousands of voters in all states to indicate the party whose candidate for congress they think they will vote for The results show that if the congressional election were held 46 seats in the today the Republicans would gain approximately ' house of representatives as compared to 1936 This would give the G 0 P 135 seats as against 89 in 1936 while the Democratic total of 333 seats in 1936 would be cut to 287 To a Republican leader the prospect of This- shift while not large in itself will provide good ‘Christmas cheer He can argue that a new trend is under way that the pendulum is at least begin ning to swing back to the G O P after the smashing Democratic victories of 1932 1934 and 1936 A Democrat on the other hand might argue that after all his party could not keep on gaining membership in congress forever that a reversal of the trend was bound to come some time and that the Democrats would still have a huge majoriy in the house even if 46 seats were lost In fact James A Farley the Democratic national committee chairman recently declared himself in favor of a strong opposition party to keep the party in power on its toes Much can happen of course between now and November 1938 Today’s survey is only the first of a series which the Institute will conduct on the congressional elections Each survey complete in itself will reflect the changes and the trend in sentiment as the campaign draws near The trend may reverse itself many times before the twelvemonth is over But even on the basis of the first survey one thing is clear The Republicans will have to evolve major improvements in their campaign strategy if they hope to make serious inroads into the Democratic lead A year has passed since the last general election and in that year President Roosevelt has suffered some major political setbacks including the thwarting of his supreme court plan Yet judging by the results of today’s survey the Republican prospect for gaining seats in congress has not improved to a point where the party can match the Democrats in strengh SHIFT SURVEY SHOWS THREE-POINThe Insitute’s congressional survey was conducted on the “shift” principle It sought to compare the total vote cast for Democratic congressmen by geographical sections in 1936 with the vote for Democratic congressman in today’s survey in order to determine The survey is not whether there has been any shift in sentiment to be confused with President Roosevelt’s popularity index reported last week by the Institute Today’s poll concerns itself only with the vote for congressmen What candidate for conTJje question put to voters was this gress from your district do you thjink you will vote for in the next congressional election — Democratic candidate Republican candidate or other party candidate? Excluding the minor parties the national vote and the change since 1936 is as follows: 1936 Today Change 59 56 minus 3 Persons favoring Dem candidates 44 41 Persons favoring Rep candidates plus 3 ' These are national totals In order to measure the net gain or loss in seats caused by the shift in sentiment the results were examined by sections since sections are more homogeneous Such an analysis shows losses in Democratic strength in some areas and small gains in others The change of sentiment and the net gain or loss of Democratic seats is shown in the following table: By DR Voters Favor Tax Cuts on Companies Sharing Profits By INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC OPINION NEW YORK Nov 27 — Two plans promoting better relations between workers and employers pqt forward recently by Publisher Frank E Gannett of Rochester have received the overwhelming indorsement of voters in national American Institute of Public Opin- Prospect of This Shift Should Provide Real Christmas Cheer to Partry Leaders Says Galftlp Thousands Over Nation Queried 200 ir' Or 28 1937 tar OPINION reNEW YORK Nov 27-- The sult of today's American Institute survey showing a trend against the Democrats in congressional popularity ia closely aligned with historical precedents for the last 60 yearS It is customary in American politics for the party in control of the presidency to lose seats In the house of representatives in an “off year' election that is a year when there is no" presidential campaign In the last 60 years this has happened In 13 out of 15 off year elections Only the administrations of the two Roosevelts Theodore in 1902 and Franklin in 1934 have been able to stand against this trend: In 1902 the Republicans gained 10 seats In the off year election and in 1934 the Democrats gained nine seats The institute survey indicates that in 1938 the precedent may "hold good once more The poll finds that the Democrats would lose approximately 46 seats if the 1938 election were held today In six of the 15 cases Jn the last 60 years the party of the president -- re- followed by the election of Roose' Up Munitions velt in 1932 Preceding Hoover during the administration of Coolidge OTTAWA (UP) — Canada’s share and Harding the G O P kept the present world armament in control of and the presThe total produidency Harding's election in 1920 boom 1s small followed loss of the house by the of explosives in the Dominion ction 1918 Passes 300000 Warship Decks Gas Resistant LONDON Books Moved (UP)— The great task London university’s liSouth Kensington to the of moving brary from new headquarters in Blooiftsbury has started In all the library contains 300000 volumes including edias to be priceless tions so LONDON (UP)— Ships lit ths British na'vy are now being fitted with “gas-prorare bridges so that warfare can be carried on wityput the crew having to wear gas masks officers are wearing masks there la has lost control of the house after The scheme is being tried out on a danger of their'orders being mufH M S Warsprite now undergo- fled and misunderstood having won control in the preceding Democrats in 1936 — the of the operation of this during figures include the ing a 410000000 refit at Ports“The 'admiralty decided on the presidential year Latest case was Because“law of the midyear ele- manufacture of fireworks — was mouth method after many years' research that of Hoover who rode ctions" tremendous interest atas making things safer and has perfected special mechanicaccording to the Dominion “As well 1928 his party win taches to the- - 1938 on a Iandslide-ifor he crcongressional bureau of statistics th1enew 'heme wil1 ally treated curtains for covering totaled Exports and carrying door ways which have to ba kept Peed UP the ning a lead of 104 seats over the campaign 'The outcome may fore417I00O ' out of ordrs’l an officer said “When open during action" only Democrats In the house Two years shadow the winner of 1940 later the G Q P was a minority party in the house with the Democrats taking the lead by five seats in the 1930 election Wilson met with the same sort of The American Institute of Public Opinion through its publican' Is ha satisfied with the party's present leaderreversal in 1918 when his party lost of Clevethe control house Taft unique method of sounding out public sentiment- - is now conship? Which does he think' the party needs more —— new ' land Harrison and Garfield also leaders or e new program? What candidate would he like ducting what amounts to an unofficial national convention lost congressional control in off year of the Republican party to have the party put up for president in 1940? x elections G O P leaders recently gave up the idea of an official The ballot questions likewise go into the subject of Political prophets claim that midterm congressional elections are Aof the party because they feared it jnidterm gathering party program Each Republican is asked to name the chief ccurate weathervanes for predicting P voters not true cross-secti- on e of O issue on which' he would appeal to voters if ha were runmight G represent winner of the next presidential the election They say that the party Beginning a few weeks ago the Institute set its nationning the party Each is asked whether the party should be which wins control of the house in wide staff of reporters to the task of interviewing a scientifimore liberal or more conservative a midterm election is almost always In a few weeks the Institute will conduct the same sort n selected of Republican voters in all states cally to candcertain put its presidential The object was to find out what sort of strategy the of convention among Democratic voters idate into office two years later This rank and file of the G 0 P thinks the has been true since as far back as The result of the Republican survey will be published party should adopt 1886 A half dozen questions era being asked of every Re exclusively in The Salt Lake Tribune next Sundey Recent notable examples: Hoover’s loss of the house in 1930 was the-hou- into-offic- e n - Institute to Hold a ‘Convention’ of G 0 P Voters cross-sectio- I |