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Next Sunday AMERICA SPEAKS Drifting Toward Dictatorship? o£PUBLIC OPINION THE NATIONAL THE SALT LAKE TRIBUNE SUNDAY MORNING C 5 JULY 26 1936 POLL REVEALS UNION BLOG THREATENS ROOSEVELT Nomination of Lemke Revives Third A fter T Claim ‘Ism-ite-s’ Democrats Lose Five Times More Votes to Groups Than Landon 25000000 Followers Party Drop en-Mon- th Assassination of Hu ey Long Marked Beginning of Decline but-- Flagging Strengtlf Given New Aid by Doctor and Priest Population and Far Below Number5 Given to Former Party Leaders bullet that felled Huey Long Sepd tember 8 1935 from the Third party movement decline By June 1936 it could sumwhich sank into a mon only a fourth of the strength it had when Huey Long lived Tpday through the nomination of William Lemke and the blandishments of a California doctor and a Detroit priest its flagUpward once more turns the ging strength has been revived course of the Third party movement The history of ‘‘protest’’ sentiment has been recorded from month to month by the Institute of Public Opinion in nations poUs its findings since March 1935 are shown on the chart below The term “Third party” means all those voters who indicated that they wanted to vote for the candidate of some party ether than the Republican Democratic or Socialist parties The decline beginning in early September is important not merely in itself but in its effect on the popular majority of Franklin D Roosevelt While the third parties were declining in strength the president was gaining and most of his gains come from those parties Thus the high point in Third party sentiment August 1935 is close to the loW point in Roosevelt’s popularity which was 505 per cent in the September 1935 poll of the Institute of Public NEW YORK July drew By GEORGE GALLUP Director American Institute of Public Opinion NEW YORK July 25— A nationwide poll just completed by the Institute of Public Opinion reveals' that the combined strength of all the Third parties at the present time including the Union pary the Communists the Prohibition party but not the Socialists is four per cent of the electorate or approximately 1800000 votes of which the lion's share goes to William Lemke of the Union party This figure represents but a small part of the voting population It is far below the 17 per cent which La Follette polled in 1924 and the 27 per cent which Theodore Roosevelt polled at the head of the Bull Moose ticket in 1912 25— The life-bloo- ten-mon- th Opinion Similarly the high point of Roosevelt’s popularity this year 658 per cent in June corresponds to the low point in Third party sentiment 25 per cent The close correlation between the two sets of figures is shown in the following table Note how the Roosevelt trend was upward when the Third party trend was downward Per Cent But the important fact about the Third party movement today is that it la rapidly gaining momentum Rev Charles E Coughlin (left) claims his National Union for Social Justice can swing 10000600 votes to Lemke Townsend (center) and Gerald L K Smith Dr Francis clubs mentor of Huey Long’s (right) Share-the-Weal- tb Vote of Minor Parties Analyzed (NOTE): In the following figures the term “Third Party” includes the Union Party the Communists the Prohibition Party etc but does pot include the Socialists This party is treated separately) ‘ of Voters All Thomas Lemke Third Parlies January June (Union) 15 26 Vote (Except Socialists) 41 Sections April May Roosevelt gain August to 48 points June (Socialist) National 1936 Third Party to June loss claim about 15000000 followers for the Townsend plan Today’s poll shows that while these numbers may support the social program of the three leaders they do not necessarily indorse their political ideas All Third Parties August States Where Lemke Is Strongest Lemke North Dakota South Dakota Ohio Minnesota Massachusetts Maine Connecticut Wisconsin 180 95 70 65 62 62 58' 48 After a long decline following the death of Huey Long the curve of “protest” votes has turned upward rising from 25 per cent in June to 4 per cent today The riddle of the campaign is: How much further will it go? Once in August 1935 the month before Senator Long was cut down by an assassin’s bullet as many as 10 per cent of the voting public indicated in an Institute poll that a Third party they would vote-fo- r If the movement regains the glory at the Long days and if its vote is heavy in certain key states it can have a serious effect on President Roosevelt’s chances The real importance of the movement is that while it might not be able to win the election it could keep someone else from winning The poll confirms the worst fears of the Democratic party on that score For as Third parties gain they draw far more heavily from Roosevelt than from Landon The proportion Is five to one that is for every Republican who goes to a Third party four Democrats go over In the case of the Union party the proportion Is even higher: seven to one All the above figures apply to Third parties only The Socialist vote was tabulated separately The indicated strength of this party in the poll is 15 per cent or about 660000 votes at the present time The percentage is slightly under what the Socialists polled in 1932 Pblled Cross-Sectio- n n The minor party vote was determined by polling a of approximately 100000 voters located in every state in the Union They were asked to indicate which candidate they favor: Roosevelt Landon Lemke Thomas or some other (The last Roosbtlfft-y- v Landon score showing Roosevelt ahead was published in The Salt Lake Tribune July 12) The ballots were distributed by xnail and by 288 personal interviewers beginning June 23 four days after the Rev Charles E Coughlin created the new Union party in the course of a radio address and announced William (“Liberty Bill”) Lemke as its candidate cross-sectio- ' 75 points 40 New England Middle Atlantic Roosevelt’s Leftward Swings ' JLhe moral pointed by these facts is that since Roosevelt benefited when Third party sentiment declined he stands to lose ef it increases between now and November The question is what will Roosevelt do about it? Back in the summer of 1935 when Huey Long was approaching the height of his power the president put through a ’’soak the rich” tax bill which political observers believed was intended to cut the ground from under the Third party movement While he was swinging to the left however he was losing ground on the right Institute polls show that all during that summer of 1935 the president’s total popularity declined going from 53 per Then in that month1 cent in March to 505 per cent in September the president apparently satisfied that he had done all he could to head off a bolt on the left swung dramatically back to the right The With the announcement of a “breathing spell’' for business Analysis of Lemke Vote n election of 1896 a third party called In the the National Democrats succeeded in siphoning off enough votes from Bryan in Kentucky and California to make these states safe for McKinley A similar thing could easily happen this year Among the 15 states where Lemke and other Third parties are strongest there are at least three states —Ohio Pennsylvania and Minnesota— where Landon and Roosevelt are nip and tuck today and where the Third party vote might well be the deciding factor That Lemke draws far more supporters from Roosevelt than from Landon is easily demonstrated by noting the former political affiliations at the Lemkeitesr’Iri the poll today 70 per cent said they had voted for Roosevelt in 1932 whereas only 9 per cent voted for Hoover The rest of Lemke’s support comes from former Socialists from those who did not vote in 1932 and from persons who were too young to vote that year A tabulation follows: McKinley-Brya- Popular Appeal of Coughlin and Townsend Question wllCStlOn “Would Father Coughlin’s indorsement of a candidate make any difference in your voting for or against that candidate?” 1 I would vote for the candidate I would vote against the candidate Would make no difference “Would Dr Townsend’s indorsement of a candidate make any difference in your voting for or against that candidate?” f 1 I would vote for the candidate I would vote against the candidate Would make no difference No For National Vote Difference 7 73 Against 20 For National Vote No Difference 68 10 Against 70 9 4 14 3 22 100 Curiously the state of Michigan is not one of the 15 where Lemke is strongest despite the fact that Michigan is the home state Lemke’s of Father Coughlin who is backing the Union party state of North Dagreatest percentage 18 per cent is in his own Massachusetts next kota with South Dakota Ohio Minnesota and in order For complete list see the table of figures elsewhere on this page The popularity of Norman Thomas Socialist candidate is greatest on the Pacific coast and in the mountain states The figure is No separate tabulation approximately 2 per cent for these sectionsCommunist candidate who was made of the votes for Earl Browder of the total vote cent one-haof one less than much per polls Father Coughlin and Dr Francis E Townsend have both thrown themselves into the presidential election and particularly into the congressional campaign where they seek to help candidates who favor their causes and to defeat those who are opposed How much political power do these two men wield? To answer this question the Institute-o- f Public Opinion asked j'sXthe voters in toqays poll: “Would Father Coughlin’s indorsement of a Candidate make any difference in your voting for or against that candidate?” Answers revealed that a small percentage of the voters in the nation would vote for a candidate indorsed by Coughlin or Townsend but that a larger number say they would vote against him Parties Parties From From From From From PARTIES AND GROUPS FROM WHICH LEMKE DRAWS VOTES Democrats Republicans Socialists persons not voting in 1932 first voters Democrats Republicans lf Sections Sections ' East Central Pacific Coast Fifteen States An overwhelming number declare that the indorsement would have no influence on their voting The national vote follows: Coughlin-Townsen- Fifteen States COUGHLIN The above graph based on results from Institute of Publio Opinion polls shows the nutnber of persons who between March 1935 “and July 1936 said they wanted to vote for a Socialist or for the candidate of some Third party Third party movement having sunk Into its decline and the right and the middle having been mollified Roosevelt gained steadily in popularity until June with only a few minor recessions Then came the nomination of Lemke June 19 dnd a general Significantly President reawakening of Third party sentiment Roosevelt’s acceptance speech delivered ten days after Lemke’s nomination was belligerently leftish in tone It appeared as though he was once again moving to cut th ground from under the Third party sentiment just as he did in 1935 And just as in that year he began losing votes on the right to the Republicans In the first week after Landon’s nomination the president's majority sank four points as reported by the institute July 12 The Roosevelt dilemma is clear: Whenever he maneuvers to head off a threat from the left he stands to lose ground on the right (Entire page copyright 1936 by For Tennessee California Utah South Dakota Washington Arkansas Wyoming North Dakota Kansas New Mexico Kentucky Arizona Rhode Ohio American Institute of Public Opinion All right T reserved 21 18 19 18 16 16 16 15 15 14 60 64 77 56 68 14 6 22 20 14 13 68 69 18 18 67 70 64 7 28 16 18 15 7 d TOWNSEND 10 68 73 No difference 22 20 Against What do these figures mean? In view of the high “against” vote is indorsement by Coughlin or Townsend a kiss of death? Political answers analysts will probably bting forward a dozen different of Public and in truth no one can tell for sure The Institute important Opinion’s own surmise is that the “against” vote is not soballots that as the “for” vote “Reason: Persons who say on their are candidate mostly or Townsend a be would Coughlin against they It is unlikely “regular” party voters Republican and Democratic that in an actual election any large number would change party affiliations just to vote against a congressman indorsed by Coughlin With enmity running so high between Republicans or Townsend and Democrats today a Republican who dislikes Coughlin is not apt to become a Democrat merely because the radio priest has indorsed his party’s candidate This to him would be like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire Reproduction in whole or In part is strictly forbidden except with the written consent of the copyright owners) |