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Show Volume IX Issue VI THE OGDEN VALLEY NEWS Page 5 January 1, 2004 Push & Pull . . . the Impact of Powerful Productivity Gains and Strong U.S. Economic Growth on Utah’s Small Businesses HIGHLIGHTS * * * * The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah rose to 99.7 in November 2003 versus a revised 97.7 in October Utah’s unemployment rate was estimated at 4.9% in November 2003, up from October’s revised 4.7% rate. Total Utah employment is up an estimated 2,500 jobs during the past 12 months Powerful gains in worker productivity will have a positive long-term impact on the Utah economy. Impressive U.S. economic growth will help in the near-term The nation’s unemployment rate was 5.9% in November—down slightly from October’s 6.0% rate—while net U.S. employment rose by 57,000 jobs POWERFUL PRODUCTIVITY & GROWTH Average worker productivity rose 5.4% in calendar year 2002, the largest rise in 51 years. Productivity gains have risen faster in recent months. Average worker productivity rose at a 7.0% annual rate in 2003’s second quarter. It rose at an amazing 9.4% annual rate in the July-September quarter, the strongest quarterly gain in 20 years. Strong gains in worker productivity are great for boosting the American workers’ standard of living over the long-run and for enhancing American competitiveness with the rest of the world. However, powerful gains in average worker productivity are terrible in the short-run as they limit the need for new workers. The U.S. economy boomed in the Julyto-September quarter, with growth soaring at a 8.2% real (inflation-adjusted) annual rate. The 8.2% GDP growth rate (the value of all goods created and services provided) was the strongest quarterly growth pace in 19 years, and more than doubled the second quarter’s 3.3% real annual rate. We expect U.S. GDP to rise near a 4.0%5.0% annual rate in the current quarter, with 3.5%-4.5% real growth occurring next year. This solid growth will benefit Utah. U.S. economic performance is a component of the Utah Small Business Index. more favorable business “conditions” for Utah’s small businesses. The Index uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base year. The Index also includes revisions to various historical or forecast components as they become available. UTAH EMPLOYMENT NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT The Utah unemployment rate—the most heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah—was estimated at 4.9% in November 2003, up from October’s revised 4.7% rate. November’s 4.9% rate compared to a jobless rate of 6.2% during November 2002. A higher Utah unemployment rate is a positive contributor to the Index as it implies increased access to Utah labor. Utah’s unemployment rate averaged 6.1% in 2002 and 4.4% in 2001. By comparison, the 3.2% average during 2000 was one of the lowest annual rates since the early 1950s. These rates compare to an average Utah unemployment rate of 3.5% between 1995 and 1999. Total Utah employment rose by an estimated 2,500 jobs (up 0.2%) over the past 12 months, the strongest gain since 2001. This rise compares to a revised gain of 300 jobs in the prior year-over-year period. These totals compare to gains averaging 38,300 new jobs annually during the 1994-2000 period. Weak job growth or actual employment declines, leading to lesser income creation and weaker retail spending, has a negative impact upon Utah’s small businesses—and, therefore, the Index. The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah increased to 99.7 during November 2003 from a revised 97.7 during October 2003, primarily led by stronger Utah job gains. The Index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small business owner or manager. A higher Index number is associated with The U.S. Department of Labor reported the net gain of an estimated 57,000 jobs in November 2003, less than half the rise expected by Wall Street players. October’s originally reported addition of 126,000 jobs was revised to a gain of 137,000 jobs, while September’s estimate of a gain of 125,000 jobs was revised to a rise of 99,000 jobs. The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.9% in November, down from October’s 6.0% rate. June’s 6.4% rate was the highest in nine years. We would suggest the jobless rate for this period of economic gyration probably peaked in June. The nation’s goods-producing sector lost 7,000 jobs in November, led by the loss of another 17,000 manufacturing jobs, near the smallest loss since July 2000. The manufacturing sector has now lost jobs for 40 consecutive months, with more than 2.6 million jobs eliminated since mid-2000. Construction added 10,000 jobs in November. Service-providing employment rose by an estimated 64,000 in November. Temporary jobs rose by 21,000, the seventh consecutive monthly rise. The rise in “temp” positions is a good indicator of gains in permanent employment in coming months. Health services added 25,000 jobs in November. Zions Bank will release the December 2003 Small Business Index for Utah on January 13, 2004. Zions is Utah’s oldest financial institution, and is the only local bank with a statewide distribution of branches, operating 126 full-service branches throughout Utah. Zions Bank also operates 23 full-service branches in Idaho, and more than 200 ATMs throughout Utah and Idaho. In addition to a wide range of traditional banking services, Zions offers a comprehensive array of investment, mortgage, and insurance services, and has a network of loan origination offices for small businesses nationwide. The company is also a leader in providing electronic banking services, including electronic municipal bond trading. Founded in 1873, Zions has been serving the communities of Utah for nearly 130 years. For more information, contact Zions Bank’s Eden Valley office at (801) 745-0835. Additional information on Zions Bank is available at www.zionsbank.com. Jeff Thredgold Thredgold Economic Associates Economic Consultant to Zions Bank (801) 533-9663 © 2003 Thredgold Economic Associates THINK OF THE FUTURE The Ogden Valley Land Trust a non-profit organization For more information, Call (801) 745-2048 SKI MOUNTAIN VIEWS GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY TRAPPERS RIDGE DECORATED MODELS OPEN!!! Visit the decorated models and choose from six unique floorplans offering two to five bedrooms, each with attached two car garages. Freestanding homes with common area maintained by the HOA. Built by Watts Enter prises, one of Utah’s premier homebuilders. Priced from $209,00 THE CASCADES AT MOOSE HOLLOW These townhome style condominiums offer 3 & 4 bedrooms with attached two-car garages. Master suite lockouts available with optional rental management. Unfinished basements offer room to expand. Built by Lewis Homes, developer of the ver y successful Moose Hollow Condominiums. Completion anticipated summer, 2003. MOOSE HOLLOW Priced from $350,000 Be a part of Wolf Creek's most successful condominium community. Rustic mountain design with 2, 3 and 4 bedroom floorplans available. Optional nightly rental management program and terrific on site amenities including pool, spa, sauna, locker area, volleyball, barbecue & picnic areas. Priced from $209,000 Build your own mountain home. Homesites available from $60,000. All information subject to change without notice. VISIT OUR REAL ESTATE OFFICE IN THE WOLF CREEK RESORT CLUBHOUSE OR AT THE MOOSE HOLLOW WELCOME CENTER OPEN DAILY 9 AM- 6 PM 3900 N. WOLF CREEK DRIVE, EDEN, UTAH www.wolfcreekresort.com (801) 745-2218 Toll Free (877) 492-1061 ext. 212 |