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Show DAILY HERALD Friday. August 24, 2007 A3 I r' BAGHDAD . Katherine Shrader THE ASSOCIATED MESS WASHINGTON -- The Iraqi government is strained by rampant violence, deep sectarian differences among A political parties and stymied leadership, the nation's top spy analysts concluded in a sobering assessment released Thursday.' With the country teetering between success and failure in the next year, Iraqs neighbors will continue to try to expand their leverage in the fractured state in anticipation that the United States will soon leave, the new report found. It predicted that the Iraqi government will become more precarious Aver the next six to 1? months because erf criticism from various Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions. - -To date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively," it said. There was a glimmer of backhanded hope for the Iraqi leadership in the often dark analysis: Iraqi Prime Minister Nocri will continue to benefit from the belief among other Shiite leaden that searching for a replacement could paralyze! A govern-me- . . " . . . ' . . . . nt The new National Intelli- - ' gence Estimate was an update of another high-levassessment prepared six months ago by the top analysts scattered across all 16 US. spy agencies. The CIA and Defense Intel- ligence Agency were the key' contributors to Thursday's report, which found some security progress but elusive hopes for reconciliation among Iraq's feuding groups. It came at a time of renewed. tensions between Washington , and Baghdad, and as the Bush administration prepares a report on how this years troop buildup in Iraq is working. Overall, the report finds that Iraqs security will continue to "improve modestly" over the next six to 12 months, provided that coalition forces mount strongcounter insurgency operations and mentor Iraqi el . 7 -- . forces. But even then, violence levels will remain high as the country struggles to achieve .. national political reconciliation. .. "The strains of the security situation and absence of key leaders have stalled internu political debates, slowed national decision-makinand increased Malikis vulnerability" to factions that could form a rivaling coalition, the document says. is a ShiAlthough ite, it finds that other Shiite factions have looked at ways to constrain him. The administration and the many opponents of its Iraq policy both will find evidence, in the report to justify the policies they recommend. Senate Majority Leader said the Harry Reid, report confirms what most. .' Americans know. .. "Our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the presidents escalation strategy has failed to produce the po-- .. litical results he promised to our troops and the American people," he said. Yet the report also backed ' many of the administrations arguments: the.troop buildup . announced in January has ere-- . ated new room for success, .. and the military cant leave quickly or shift A focus from efforts to stop insurgents and stabilize the Iraqi government. Earlier this week President Bush said t A Iraqi govern-- . ment clearly could do more, but he and his aides quickly sought to tamp down suggestions the administration had ...' lost faith in "This is a government that is learning learning frankly how to govern, White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said. No, fc is not moving nearly as fast as everyone in Washington, D.G, would like ft to move." ' U.S. Ambassador to Iraq : Ryan Oocker and the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. .David Fetraeus, are due to report next month on how much progress is being made with the buildup, which now has some 162,000 troops, the highest of the war. . . . . four-year-ol- d . Suspected fighterv stormed two villages near Jaqpuba on Thursday, bombed the house of a local Sunni sheik and kidnapped a group of mostly women. Residents were finally able to drive off t A attackers and end the deadly rampage. .Seventeen villagers, including seven women, were killed in t A assaults roughly 35 miles northeast of Baghdad. Ten gunmen also C. 1- r ' - -..7 r y - ... r diL TA twin attacks near tA ' Diyala provincial capital t A focus of recent major U.S. Iraqi military operations against alleged fighters and Shiite militiamen hit a Suite village and a Sunni village with t A same ferocity but apparently different motives. in Iraq has been forced to fight a rearguard ' ; action against many of its .. former allies in tA Sunni community who Ave risen up against the terrorist organization because of its brutality and attempts to impose the group's austere version of Islam. Shiite communities remain targets out of Sectarian animosity. TA attack on the Sunni village, Ibrahim began when about 25 gunmen exploded a bomb at the house of Sheik Younis . destroying his home and kill-- : ing him and one member of ..' his family. Ten people were wounded, including four other members of tA family and passersby. Some of t A wounded were hit by gunfire..; "They were shouting Allah Akbar and a curse A upon t he renegades, said Umm Ahmed, a woman who was wounded in t A attack. S A refused to give her full name fearing retribution. "This will cause t A uprising ; against them to spread to other villages. Seven people were kidnapped. Two of the abducted men were later found shot in t A head On a road leading out of town. TA rest of t A captives were women, and tAir ; fate was unknown. V ".-.r- . Wh, i : V i 7 -- "L Iraqi men carry dead policeman outside the hospital in Baqouba, capital of Iraq's Diyala province, 60 kilometers (35 miles) northeast of Baghdad on Thursday. On the way to a scene where gunmen attacked the house of Sheik Younis, a dignitary who urged the one of the Iraqi Police vehicles . in the village of Ibrahim people to fight turned upside down, killing two policemen aid wounding five others, police said. a . rT. ' V ' da . - . . . da . . . . " at-ta- . : . to Diyalq province and some Baghdad neighborhoods. TA U.S. military has encouraged disaffected Sunnis, many of them former insurgents, and While the Sunni village was has begun working side by under attack, another And side with tA Sunni auxiliary .. Units.- of alleged fighters Kara Driggers, a Mideast i stormed Timim, tA nearby Shiite village and an obvious , analyst at tA Terrorism sectarian target, according Center, said ' attacks on t A leaders of toBaqouA police Brig. AK Dlaiyan, who reported both groups Ave prompted assaults and gave tA casualty more Iraqis to turn against " V tolls. He said tA villagers them,''.' were able to fighLoff t A TA alQaida tactic of tarin a SOminute gunbattle. geting leaders of antktl-Qaidmovements is counterproducIt was unclear how many of tA 17 residents wA died tive in that Iraqi society's trib' al leanings requires reprisal' were In each village. A police vehicle rushing to killings, sA said. "TA triAl t A attack scene crashed and loyalties of Iraqi civilians are , two policemen were killed, ignited to increase anti-a- lin officials sentiment among tA to Qaida according provincial police force population." .. ..' who spoke on condition of :. Anthony Cordesman, an anonymity because they were Iraq expert at tA Center for. not authorized to release the International and Strategic Studies, said t A Sunni uprisinformation,.. was more TA Sunni uprising against ing against important than military gains. began spontane"If success comes, it will ously early this year in Anbar not A because t A new strateprovince, once a bastion of t A Sunni insurgency in t A : gy President Bush announced . in January succeeded, or west of Iraq, and has spread and his village apparently came under at-tack after A called on t A men there to rise up against through t A development of .. Iraqi security farces at tA planned rate It will come because of tA new, spontaneous rise of local tones . willingto attack and resist and because new , levels of political conciliation and economic stability occur at a pace dictated more by Iraqi political dynamics thaif t A result of U.S. pressure, Cordesman wrote in a report , Wednesday. "TA key element for success remains political conciliation and so far t A pace of Iraqi action lags far Ahind t A minimal levels necessary .to meet either Iraqi or U.S. . expectations, Cordesman wrote. ' In an indication of tA . . complexities facing can faxes in Iraq, where tA police force has nearly been given up as a lost cause, U.S. troops arrested nine policemen two days ago on suspicion they were involved in a roadside bombing near a checkpoint they controlled in east Baghdad's Rasheed dis--' trict, according to a military statement on Thursday . , Re-sear- da . . . at-ta- . . the-Diya- . ; .' . da . 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