Show iii J41 vK rmypim iMiCpMi0ip2tfi£ i i i i $B s$a II— Tin Htrald Jotnuol si- FJ Logan Utah Sunday October U £ f 7V eae0 Jifc Vi — if i ' I 9 a t I i e a lijg t ip "T t) t m i 1971 Projecting of the President how it works 7V '1 f NEW YORK (UPI) -Ithe CBS office of n K Warren J Mitofifty-man who trusts com than puters more scientists there copy of that 1948 newspaper with the a ell headline "Dewey Defeats Truman" Judgment call And despite rams team was ahead on the night of the who thought had Wisconsin primary when at 9:28 pjn they flashed Udall the projected winner “The guys at CBS can gloat if they want — we gloat about our lead in the 1968 presidential election and that was own returns strives to take out the human dement basing his purely on statistical probabilities While admitting “no system is infallible” he “I think if you look Wetiel made one at the very close races decision that morning “I find: we’re hand forbade our decision SuTI them more ex- desk from ever again peditiously “I think you’ll find that being informed about what the other networks ABC announces more ' races the fastest but I degree in psychology doctorate fTn Unt-- " communication at Min-sanesota “You get three experts together and you get ya three opinions CBS computer center much faster than the ’Hie countybycounty results will be fed by the NES a pool operation of all the major news agencies people who are looking at IWsik you’ll find we’re (nr K0" to be right more T'i r nfclCy-- often than they are" - mass in h8 difference in an Emmy as producer of the three operations is that Mitofsky and his fry to CBS crew shun the ad- n-- ?" 8ys vice of political scientists ‘projection is not an an(j journalists while ' exact science NBC and ABC seek it Mitofsky who once: j reoQy don't pay 1 - this are data statisticians not social scientists” How does it work? CBS has selected 3500 sample precincts 90 to 100 in each state averaging about 400 voters each They were picked on a geographical basis with the past voting records of the precincts fed into the computer The computer man teams said winner" Mitofsky a former statidan for the US Census Bureau who hasn’t been wrong yet In second 400 victory elections since 1968 “The only filing (for samples told us in that election was that it was going to be dose” Mitofsky’s counterparts at the other two networks who came out of Wisconsin with egg on "It each statistician political scientist who at one time was Miftosky’s boss as director of the US Census Bureau But Wetzel admits they were stampeded into the Udall projection by ABC are some differences three will base their decision in the presidential election on a 3000 of sampling 'I- v v- mk Mm Jl wm!m Sn I - 25 f ifri J " V LB BAG If jr K?( ' r r ( — t - j J 'u V’fj-'-S- :r THE 150 ¥A - No VSTORM-TIT- v 'v U U u-f- r "if-- lb GE MORE OF v Ai-- s VT V 87 J - 55 Norm r' ’ v ' I : ' -- s V'XV'ir i VI ' V - ' PUNT ' e - ' finish ' s For the rental location naaieet you cad (DEALER'S NAME ADDRESS AND PHONE) ltWIhWt SUPERIOR CLEANERS 699 Reg R9 0 e 90 lb mineral surface -- 108 sq ft total per roll e In several colors' A' SOIL v- : REG 1069 s $ v - e ' ' 1 5 lb felt-32- sq ft 4 A iBr WOODLAND ESPANADA tfiT gtaw---- 4“ B e Just one In place :- ibe - ’ sf fi screw holds each support brocket SWOllMACXn - ooueusRACxn RIO 1S7 TRIPII BRACXIT RIO IS0S ' MMIIMS? 947 i 00 D7 m 047 141 S FT SHUT AMOrted colored gkutM ® A4T ii-- l ' RCO S1S ROUND HO 777 409 4 FT war RS011S7 SFTSN&F C ROUND I RSOl4lt 4FTSMLP Ceramic AMorfed ealaied gleiee 71" noil or $ r e Prefinished in dork walnut and trimmed with V solid brass decorative nail studs v a Shelves rest on the wall sis me a a ' SHELVING CERAMIC "DRlP GLAZED" POTS : keg NMMVKM 199 rx24" Keg 40S 349 rx36" Reg 61S T 499 12"x24“ Reg 545 449 ROLLED ROOFING AMOrted catered carpet and uptMtetery cteansr 's - REG A £Q rwmr V- - i " in stock I"x20" PEG 305 I STERmaU' - e American made of "plne e Most popular sizes 1 t qt bag I e Handsome ready to PRICE plant growth the correct balance of necessary ingredients 3 Vi ' ' ‘r' UNFINISHED PINE SHUTTERS 12Mx40H t' " v v No 2402 l ¥'-- - iREGv vBUILD IT YOURSELF" : 'Vo- strips' rust proof window K 'V- - tacks 'Vv - e Heavy duty extra clear plastic 36" ' by 72r approx e Stimulates superior e window moulding s r : fibre With 195 HX " COMPLETE SETS zir2 STORM WINDOW KIT ' i - REG C u a 50 calpercussion model IQ 752-326- 4 comfort- adhesive one piece vinyl A TAPERED 24W IstN k THOMPSON CENTER ARMS e Sterilized r 4 J Self CLERNUfSIlPERHHI 752-317- e For doors and 7 ' windows e Seals put dust V moisture and wind n- iivjr v4' jsV " e 58" x 17'e For greater fuel ' economy and No 6803 17 tS oPHom 27L4thN - HAWKIN RIFLE KIT - K AND- LINSTOCK -- 87 7 !' 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DIVISION OF PAY ’n SAVE CORPOeATION : PSICES IFKCTIVt THROUGH NOVEMBER and PIPE REBAR NJ Field reporters willphone in results from" 2800 key precincts ((In all- states except Hawaii) “selected on the basis of: past performance to be : typical of the state as a£ Paid by Unn Baker Committee Leonard McDonald Manager I I ON REPRESENTATIVE - Srojection computer center at Cherry Hill£ each staffed by team including Best Man for Your Money$ SUPER BARGAINS NEW PRIME STEEL has set up two systems- NBC a news executive a political scientist and statisticians The teams may call wi the advice of an election analyist — a university professor or perhaps a newpaperman — in each those itatea-- ” w - was a terrible elections analyst and 1 T discussions SY WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM ERNST! night” said Roy Wetzel who had taken over as their faces systems of projecting lections And while are there many similarities in the ways the three networks decide an election there if?! political sits in on the unit PROVEN TO BE THE If premature head of the NBC news election unit Just two weeks earlier “We screwed up” As in all major elections since 1964 NBC was relying heavily on fiw wisdom of Richard Scammon a veteran five-ma- n :E T5S desk was confident” In the next hour Udall’s lead began to erode as the rural vote started coming in Pfister was about ready to back down when at 10:22 pjn the NBC desk fussing with computer problems gave Udall his the desks” precincts which the network says “reflect in miniature the electorate and voting patterns of of sample precinct returns will be monitored by fine two- evaluations “When we made that Udall projection almost all our key precincts were in The decision “We’re not playing a game to see how fast we can get on the air with decision is final Occasionally Mitofsky said Waite GronUte or another announcer may comment VI think is going to win this Why haven’t you said it?’’ But he is not Influenced to alter his decision “I’ve not had that kind of pressure since I’ve been here” he said ABC has enlisted the League of Women Voters to monitor its 3000 key Every precinct has a chance for selection” On election night correspondents will call in results from the sample precincts to the from Guilford College and is a candidate for a " ’ ‘‘Demography is not a factor1 Mitofsky said no are "There bellweather precincts pre- election wisdom” said Mitofsky who has a BA 20 to 30 minutes “I can’t describe how I felt the next morning I fdt like I had been hit in the belly with a rui8r to the attention K Johtf ier Thorny Monitoring the key precincts along with the raw vote from the NES will be three “decision s two-ho- ur per cent V: ’s news television election returns showed Carter had 270456 votes —37 per cent and Udall AH Mistof-sky- vice the Pfister president for special tory statement final “caning” more than evaluates the computer printouts and some ina dividual makes At ABC on election night the buck stops at the desk of Walter projected Morris Udall the winner then at 2:45 am correctly reported Jimmy Carter would wind up with the most votes The morning after both ABC and NBC had named Udall the winner and broadcast his vie 363070 — 38 a the winner first his competitors say that’s the name of the game with a neatly trimmed beard affords himself a brief smug smile That was the night Mttobky director of the CBS news and election survey unit held off for five hours after the other networks and team — ' this professorial man two reasons ultimately comment that he's not in a race to broadcast And when the 1979 Wisconsin presidential primary is mentioned i each has picked its own precincts — for sometimes dissimilar demographic data stored in its memory ’i $ I states of the the hss already - 6? “Vj U SCO ma 1 1SS7 RfOll1S REG: 4“xirHaF IJ74 m 619 OPDi SUNDAY M0N-FRL99- 1310N9RIBMAIN i CAWia V SAT 104 9-- 7 vAiunr mau IDDAN UTAH 7531570 'Uryfff OOQ 077 1 I U 197 M flO 407 1447 19T CHARGE IT vs J AT V ERNST 57 i inteqai fSffumMmum |