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Show Sorlals Oitar Dittrtaent Uhlvawity of TTt& Ml2 City WEblERN Areicww M WNlYERSmr B22M r LIBRARIES ?.J3?4' MAR . VOLUME 17, NUMBER 281 SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH Mountain Fuel Agrees With Commission Voting for Zero Population Growth Americans appear to have voted for zero population growth, by reducing average family size below the level necessary to sustain long-terpopulation growth. This does not mean that the population will immediately level out at the 1973 figure of 210 millior. Given the continuation of recent levels of births, deaths and migration, total population will rise to 270 million in the year 2000, and in fact will continue rising until well into the 2.1-chil- d m - SALT LAKE CITY The Public Ser vice Commission of Utah on February 26, 1974, issued three orders in connection with rate and other regulatory matters of Mountain Fuel Supply Company pending before that body. The Commission: 1. Refused to set aside the Com- mission's supplemental1 order of January 21, 1974. The supplemental order rescinded that part of a previous Commission order which had included nonutility oil in utility accounts for ratemaking purposes. 2. Authorized Mountain Fuel to put into effect the rate increase of $6,231,884 previously granted as well as a further increase of $3,922,757 sought by the Company in a later separate proceeding to recover the increased cost of gas which the Company purchases from Northwest utility so as to maintain its credit and to attract capital." The Commission further stated: "Some protestants seem to be of the opinion that the Commission's order of January 14, granted to protestants all revenues from Mountain Fuel's oil operations for all time in the future, to be credited againsst what their natural gas rates might otherwise be. But this Commission never said nor intended that. As explained above, this Commission could not so order." Mountain Fuel supports the Commission action in all respects since the Company itself "ought limited rehearing for clarification purposes. The Company believes the Commission also acted wisely in permitting increased rates to become effective. 21st century. What this development does mean, however, is a marked shift in population patterns, with important economic consequences for the 1970's and beyond. We are witnessing today a clearly marked transition from a three-chil- d to a family norm, accompanied by the maturing of the War II baby-boogeneration. The impact of these factors should be felt throughout the decade, in the form of a sharp increase- in the number of two-chil- d post-Worl- d m . Pipeline Company. 3. Authorized a shortened rate adjustment procedure to recover increased gas purchase costs in the 7-- 1 3-- 2 one-poi- games-in-han- d. The Eagles visit San Diego Tuesday evening with an opportunity to jump ahead in the standings, but Wednesday Phoenix will be in action again, hosting Seattle. Which sets the stage for Thursday night '8 action in the Salt Palace when the Eagles host the Roadrunners. In the Roadrunners most recent visit to the Salt Lake Monday, Feb. 25 visitors escaped with a 2 overtime thriller witnessed by 10,640 rabid fans. Of course, the Salt Lakers copped last Saturday's game on Phoenix ice by the same score, and with that victory, their third on Phoenix ice this year, the Eagles moved ahead in the season - 3-- series, 7-- 6. Saturday night the Eagles host the San Diego Gulls again. At the start of this week, and prior to the Tuesday night Navy Town date, the Eagles on the strength lead that series, of a record in Salt Lake and a mark in San Diego. THE LAST THREE HOME GAMES IN THE SALT PALACE -TWO VS. THE GULLS, ONE VS. HAVE DRAWN AN PHOENIX AVERAGE OF OVER 8,000 FANS PER CONTEST. INDEED, HEADING INTO THE HOME STRETCH IT SEEMS APPARENT THAT "HOCKEY FEVER" HAS STRUCK THE AREA. 1, -0 -1 - especially working Unless economic policy can keep total demand growing as fast or faster than the labor force, unemployment in this decade will be concentratwives. ed not among teenagers, but rather workers among prime-ag- e many of them family breadwinners. Trends and Forecasts According to some demographers the recent decline in fertility rates is only the latest development in a long-terdecline starting well before the end of the 19th century. The trend was accentuated by the Great Depression, but was interrupted (and partly disguised) by the aftermath of World War II. Indeed, two major distortions occurred in the age distribution of the population during the 1930-6- 0 period: an unusually low level of births in the first half of the period, followed by an unusually high level of births in the postwar half of that era. The absolute number of births peaked in 1957. at 4.3 million, and then began to decttheL because of the drop in fertility rates and the relatively small number of potential mothers in the "hollow" 1930-4- generation. Most experts assumed, however, that births would soar during the 1970's and 1980's with the entry of the baby-boocohorts into thechildbearing-ag- e group. After all, the figures showed inthat there would be a crease in the number of females in the key age bracket between 1968 and 1975 alone. The experts' projections turned out to be far wide of the mark. Despite the existence of the largest number of potential mothers in history, only about 3.1 million babies were born in 1973 the lowest figure since 1945 according to preliminary figures for the year. The crude birth rate (the number of babies born per 1,000 poputhe lowest lation) dipped below 15 in history, lower even than the figure at the depths of the Depression. Why Forecasts Go Awry Young wives in the prime childbear-ing-ag- e bracket have shown a strong shift in expectations in recent decades. Between 1955 and 1970, theproportion expecting a family size of two or fewer children jumped from 34 to 70 percent, while the percentage expecting four or more children fell from 38 to only 9 percent. Relative affluence is another prime factor in the lower birth rate, according to Richard Easterlin of the University of Pennsylvania. The postwar baby boom can be explained by the ability of young adults in that time period to achieve incomes quite high in relation to their Depression-er- a expectations. But today, the large numbers of young adults scrambling for jobs in the marketplace have encountered increasing difficulties in meeting their economic goals formed in the affluent postwar period. They are less willing to have children, and with the universal spread of effective means of birth control, they are more successful than their predecessors- in actually limiting family size. Impact of Shift Labor Department projections indicate a strong expansion of the labor force during the present decade, compared with a gain of less than 14 million workers during the 1960's. This gain should be followed by a significant slowdown in labor-forc- e growth during succeeding decades, although the full impact of the decline in the birth rate may not be felt until the 1990s. The most striking development of the 1970's should be the sharp growth of the age bracket especially young women workers with m m nt 20-2- 9 Y With an impressive pasting of San Diego Friday night in the Salt Palace and a stunning victory over the Roadrunners in Phoenix Saturday, the Golden Eagles again moved to within a whisper of top spot in the WHL race. The triumph over the. Roadrunners brought the Golden Eagles to within of the Arizona sextet, and the Salt Lakers still have two young workers, 5 future. In this connection, the Commission stated: "In carrying out its other responsibilities the Commission is charged with the responsibility of assuring confidence in the financial integrity of the Hockey Battle Continues for Top Spot Wednesday; march 6; 1974 Lot fyhuifa FEDERAL ECONOMISTS CONFIRM SLOWDOWN A Gallup Poll shows Americans are far NEW YORK gloomier now op the economic outlook than for many years. So are businessmen. Bank economists have been saying for months, as disclosed in these columns, that the national economy was heading for a downturn; that it would be hard landing rather than the "soft landing" promised by presidential economic adviser Dr. Herbert Stein. Now Commerce Department economists are making it public: They see the economy in a slowdown; at best; the first three months of 1974 will show a "negative GNP growth." That means a drop in services and good produced. ' But, the Commerce economists leave a door open to allow themselves optimistic space and say: "We would be surprised and humiliated if the second quarter is also in a recession." To that, bank economists say a surprise is coming their way. Two consecutive three-mont- h periods of shrinkage in the production of goods and services is generally acknowledged as a recession Right now, Office of Management & Budget (OMB) Director Roy Ash is noLtptimistic about the first quarter economic He is of the opinion the first three months "will have rough look-ahea- d. going." But, like most federal spokesmen, Ash looks for "a continual improvement in the economy in the second and third and fourth quarters." But Nixon's chief economist, Dr. Herbert Stein, doesn't believe the upturn will come in the second quarter. He can be quoted as we will begin to pick up again and we saying: "After mid-197think it's going. to be a strong upturn." Put another way, federal economists confirm a recession, rather than just a slowdown. That's what's worrying the stock market. Recession means a profits drop. 4, Dr. Stein, who is chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, was asked what he thinks of the stock market now that corporate profits are at e high levels and yet their shares are priced at only five and 10 times earnings. Says Stein: "While it is being said profits are high, profits have not risen in this recovery as fast as in other recoveries. Profits are still a dminishing share of the national income." In other words, Stein sees corporate profits in a downtrend. all-tim- 25-3- 4 children, in line with the accelerated trend in female labor-forc- e participation of the past several decades. Over the decade, there could be a increase in young female jobseekers, as opposed to a gain in 4 males. year-ol- d Basic housing demand should strengthen, with an increase in household formations from about 1.0 million annually in the late 1960's to roughly 1.5 million annually in the late 1970's. Housing construction patterns may reflect the preference of working couples (especially those with small children) for smaller units situated close to shopping, recreational, child-car- e facilities. The and for children's markets clothing and textbooks should weaken, while the markets for convenience foods, small ' ' household appliances and child-car- e services should strengthen considerably. Occupational Impact The decline in the birth rate should decline in elementarylead to a -school enrollment from 1969 to 1977, and the ripple effect will be felt later at the and college levels. The teacher market for the rest of the decade thus will be based largely on replacement demand, with due consideration for such factors as the need for smaller class size. ',-Will the slowdown' in' population growth also mean a slowdown in economic growth? The answer is no, according to the President's Commission on Population and the American Future. The rising proportion of the age population in prime working-forc- e brackets should permit higher earning and consuming levels than at present. One Commission study suggests that income in the year 2000 real should be 15 percent higher with a norm. than with a three-chilIn this situation, we could expect a moderation in demands for food, clothing and educational services. Conversely, we could expect a higher level of saving out of increased incomes, thus permitting an increase in which appears to capital formation be a prime necessity in our present nt nt 25-3- mass-trans- it nt ol high-scho- per-capi- ta two-chil- d d shortage-afflicte- y condition. William Burke d Supreme Court. Decisions V IMtau, j I' (See details page 4) Interest Charged By Some Pawn Shops 120 The Attorney General's Office determined that some pawnbrokers have been charging at least as much as $10.00 a month interest on a $100.00 loan, or 120 per year. In addition to the interest payment, the $100.00 loan may be secured by pledged collateral worth upwards of $1,000.00 which becomes the property of the pawnbroker on the default of the pledgor. |