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Show Soriale Order Dpartaent University of Utah 84112 City AMERICM WESTERN UNIVERSITY OF UTAH MORALES JAN no 4 7 7974 mtm0 Every Sixth Worker The public sector has been one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy in recent decades, and today one of every six workers in the workforce is a public employee. Government employment encompasses most r of the occupations found in private industry, and it covers a dir verse group of specialties, from doctors, scientists, enranging gineers, and accountants to secretaries and clerks. Total government employment has doubled over the past two decades, ennual rate as rising at a rate of gain against only a in private employment. Almost the entire increase, however, has come in state and local government. Federal civilian employment has grown just over 1 0 percent in the past 20 years, to 2.6 million. Federal jobs reached 2.8 million in 1969 not far below the World War II peak but have since been on a declining trend. In contrast, state-loca- l employment has increased one and a half times in this time, growing every single year to a total of 1 1.3 million today. But a slowdown in this growth trend is now apparent, because of the weakening of several factors which caused the earlier upsurge. Where They Work The category covers a number of layers of government. According to a Census survey, about of the total are state em2.9 million in 1972. But ployees school districts represent the largest single type of governmental unit, with 3.5 million employees in 1972. Most of the remaining local employees work at the municipal (2.3 million) or county (1.3 million) levels of government. functions Most have no counterpart at the state or local level. National defense and international relations account for about 40 percent of all Federal jobs, and the postal service (now a public corporation) accounts for roughly 25 percent more. These functions, plus space technology and atomic research, are the exclusive preserve of the national government. On the other hand, some Federal occupations have a similar function in other branches of government occupations having to do with natural-resourc- e management, for example. Nearly 1.5 million persons are employed in the provision of public hos- pital and health services. Most of these work for state governments, and close to 90 percent of the total are employed at either the slate or county level. The states' predominance in this field is related to the fact that states are the .largest employers in public higher education, and to the fact that most state universities maintain medical schools with affiliated teaching hospitals. Thus, to some extent, higher education and hospitals are a joint product. Most public hospitals are cither for chronic diseases, usually operated by stales, or for emergency and general care, operated by counties or municipalities. State governments employ almost f of the 610,000 person's engaged in highway work, while cities and of townships employ about the 581,000 engaged in police work. The slates account for about of all police jobs, and these are blue-colla- white-colla- one-fourt- al h Federal-governme- Public education runs from kinder- garten through graduate study at uni- -' versities, but there is a distinct separ- ation between the levels of government involved. State governments employ almost 1.3 million, practically all of them at the college and university level. School districts employ 3.5 million persons, mostly in elementary and secondary education. However, employ220,000 of the school-distric- t ees work in higher education, generally in junior or community colleges with a two-yecurriculum. one-hal- two-thir- one-nint- h employed work. mostly in highway-patro- l Kdurntinn I loom Public education, however, wilh its 5.6 million employees, is the largest and single governmental function the was until recently ' category. The educational establishment employs people in a- number of occupations, hut only 63 percent of the fastest-growin- g - total are "instructional personnel" hai is; teachers. -t- Why A Slowdown? The factors that caused the boom have weakened in recent years, however, and the annual growth rate of employment thus dropped to 4.2 percent over the 1968-7period. The postwar baby boom has pretty much worked its way out of school and into the labor force. public-educatio- n 2 expen- ditures, a major source of support for graduate students, have now levelled off after rising almost exponentially for a decade or more. Government employment should continue to increase in coming decades, but the gains may be considerably smaller than in the past two decades of rapid growth. We may witness a continuation of the already evident slowdown (or actual decline) in the two dominant Federal activities national defense and the post office and in the dominant state-loca- l activity public education. On the other hand, strong further gains can be expected in several sectors which account for 16 percent of total public employment; these sectors include health and hospitals, police protection and public welfare. The recent slowdown in growth helps account for the much improved fiscal situation of both the Federal and state-locsectors. State-loca- l governments in particular are in excellent fiscal shape, with the obvious exception of some major cities and the improvement was evident even before they legan to receive revenue-sharin- g funds late last state-locThe sector recot led a year. n surplus (annual rale) in the and period of 1971-7n then a surplus with the help of $8.3 billion in revenue-sharinover the latest grants period. (Grant funds, which had originally .been allocated mostly to capital projects, are now being directed increasingly toward current expenditures and tax relief.) Such unparalleled strength is unlikely to continue, if for no other reason than taxpayers' demands for tax relief, but the state-locfiscal situation should remain considerably healthier than it was in the period of rapid employment growth. Herbert Runyon nt al al $7.0-billio- pre-gra- nt By Leonard Curry WASHINGTON (UPI)-Cons-uwill be paying more for less in 1974. Workers in chemicals, housing and the auto industry will be laid off more frequently and in larger numbers. Production will decline. Rare optimists say the economy will grow slightly in 1974. Most experts say there will be little or no economic expansion. But few predict a recession. If the definition of a recession is accepted as either six months of no increase or an actual decline in the gross national product, however, then signs for a recession next year are active. "The wild card is oil," said Dr. Richard S. Landry, economist for. the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. mers ar public-employme- 2, S13.8-billio- g four-quart- al Landry's assessment was repeated again and again by other economists and leaders of government, industry and labor in a series of interviews statements. and public All were unanimous in predicting higher consumer prices, based on increasing labor costs, more expensive fuel and shortages of raw material and oil. "In some cases these shortages will be quite unlike any we have seen before in scope or duration," Commerce said Secretary Frederick B. Dent. "So what we are talking about is a business' ability to remain functioning in the face of potential plant shutdowns and massive employee layoffs." Economists from the Universities of Pennsylvania and Michigan foresee growing unemployment because of shortages of raw materials, which will mean less These respected production. schools of economics also say the reduced flow of finished goods will drive up retail prices, reducing consumer demand and further discouraging production. The number of married men without jobs will probably double as unemployment rises from 4.5 percent to at least 7 percent. House Speaker Carl V. Albert says unemployment will be 8 per cent, while Chamber economist Landry says 6 percent would be "slightly on the low side." "If we really have cutbacks in industrial employment, the real Joint Committee ALI-AB- A Adds 2 Faculty Members To Tax Procedure Course Two new faculty members have been announced by the Joint Committee on Continuing tagal Education of the American taw Institute and the American Bar Association for its Course of Study, Federal Tax 1974, at the January Hyatt Regency Hotel, Houston, Texas. They are Robert C. Edmonds, Esquire, New York, and Professor Robert J. Hippie, Emory University School of taw, Atlanta. Henry Cassorte Smith, Esquire, New York, is planning chairman for the course. Subtitled "From Audit through Litigation," the course will focus on procedural problems which arise in handling federal income, estate, and gift taxes from the initial filing through the audit, conference, appeal to the Appellate Division of the Internal Revenue Service, and finally into litigation. Major topics will include: Obtaining Private Letter Rulings; Office and Field Audits; The District Conference; The Appellate Division; Seeking Pro-cedure-I- I, 24-2- 6, "Technical Advice" from the National Office of the Internal Revenue Service; When to Seek Offers in Compromise; Preparation of Refund Claims; Choice of Forum for Tax Litigation; and Tax Fraud. The registration fee for the Course of Study is $225. It includes admission to all sessions, a complete set of study materials, a reception and dinner, and two luncheons. For additional information, write or Paul A. Wolkin, Director, or Donald M. Maclay, Assistant Director, Courses of Study, ALI-ABJoint Committee, 4025 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, Pa. 19104, telephone (215) caU A 387-300- At the December meeting of the Salt take Valley Innkeepers Association, held at the Hodeway Inn, new officers were elected for 1974: President Carl J. Boyer, Gen. Manager, Rodeway Inn; 1st Vice Pres. Allan Geihle, Gen. Manager, Rustlers Lodge; 2nd Vice Pres. Ev Gray, Sales Mgr., Royal Inn; Secretary Kalhy Blcazard, Convention Housing Director, S.L. Valley Convention Bureau. The membership of the Salt take Valley Innkeepers Association consists of hotels and motels throughout the Salt take Valley, ski lodges and lift operators at Alia, Brighton, Park City, Park West, Solitude and Snowbird. The Salt Lake Valley Innkeepers Association coordinates and acts as an intermediary between hotels and motels in the Greater Salt take Valley and other tourist and travel oriented industries such as airlines, Retail Merchants Association, Sail take Chamber of Commerce, Salt take Valley Visitors and Convention Bureau, and the Utah Ski Association. Through the collective efforts of the associated members, uniform practices are established in handling the needs of the traveling public. With the threats of the energy crises, the Inn- keepers Association is now studying tne major transportation promem certain to affect the overall tourist industry within the months to come. It is also studying the prospects of interchangeable computerized lift passes for individuals skiing and staying at downtown hotels and motels. brunt of this is going to fall on the married working man and the unemployment problem is going to be more serious than what we have said experienced," John Swearingen, chief executive officer of Standard Oil of Indiana. While unemployment looms for industry, the Agriculture Depart- ment reports farmers straining to increase production are- - facing labor shortages. The department says farm income probably will match the record $89 billion of 1973 despite shortages of fuel, fertilizer and' workers. Continued high prices for food will contribute to a "rapidly" rising cost of living in 1974, according to AFL-CIeconomist Nathaniel . O Goldfinger. "Workers are not going to sit by" while this is happening, he said. Economist Pierre Rinfret, citing a lag between cost of living increases and union demands, said real take-hom- e pay will decline for many workers next year, encouraging basic wage settlements about 30 per cent higher than in 1973. Adding to industry's dilemma will be rising prices for diminishing supplies of raw materials. U.S. Steel Vice President William Whyte said that zinc, for example, is getting such high prices overseas that it virtually has ' 0. Utah Supreme Court Decisions Innkeepers Elect New Officers , 1 1974 Economic Forecast Gloomy 3.5-perce- nt 1 FRIDAY, JANUARY 4, 1974 SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH VOLUME 17, NUMBER 241 state-and-loc- EfilAftJjrlfiER HOT, disappeared domestically: As a result, galvanized steel,' which requires zinc in its manufacture, is scarce in the auto and housing industries. Short supplies of building materials and high interest rates have sent construction down 30 percent since August. Home sales have declined about 25 percent, adding to an already serious housing shortage. The Associated General Contractors, which represent about ' 6,000 major builders, said the y policy government's of and shortages gasoline are forcing thousands of building mechanics to lose jobs every week. Wholesale unemployment also could occur in the chemical industry if fuel shortages continue for an extended period, according to a study for the 20 largest companies. The study said a reduction in oil would cut suppies of petroleum byproducts used in the manufacture of fertilizer, plastics, synthetic fibers and rubber with a resulting tight-mone- nationwide loss of 1.6 million jobs. The auto industry, with sales of 1974 model cars down 11 percent in the first six weeks of the model season, See details pace 4. Qfj LjfflltS Unless permission has (UPI) been given by the owner or tenant, a hunter in Nebraska may not hunt within 200 yards of an inhabited dwelling. cutting back production lines in December. The gasoline shortage and bans on Sundav sales were also having crippling effects on service station operators and repair garages. 's Goldfinger said the is already decelerating economy with sales of autos, building materials and home appliances declining, total retail sales slow and the buying power of workers slipping. "Superimposed over all this is the said Goldfinger, energy crisis-,- " "and we don't know its depths." AFL-CIO- . began . |