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Show Page 4—THE HERALD, Provo, Utah Sunday, February14, 1971 Permanent Mid-East Peace Presents Thorny Problem power in the Middle East, the By JOSEPH W. GRIGG UPIChief a Correspon- Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean, as evidenced by the it More than three and a half reyent Soviet naval buildup in years after Israel crushed her these areas The issues themselves have Arab neighbors in the lightning six day war of June, 1967—and remained almost unchanged. The Arabs still demand total in fact, after nearly a quarter century of unremitting wars withdrawal by Israel from and tensions—peace in the Middle East appears as elusive as ever, Even as this is written full scale fighting between the young Jewish state, born in 1948, and the angry Arabstates which surroundher, could erupt again at any moment. When on Feb. 4 Egyptian President Anwar Sadat announced his agreement to a 30day extension of a %-day ceasefire which wentinto effect last August and was extended another 90 days in November, Israel made no formal commitmentto the sameextension but pledged she would wut be the first to resume firing. In 1967 Israel and the Arabs waged their short war without outside invervention. Washington and Moscow agreed on their “hot line” to stay out. But a renewal of the conflict in 1971, Westernofficiats agree, would bring far greater dangers to world peace, by bringing about a direct confrontation between the two nuclear sI wwers, the United States and the Soviet Union. Both are involved infinitely more deeply than in 1967 Twofold Interest United States interest is twofold: To preventtotal Sov‘et domination of the Middle East, where America has 3 multibillion dollar oil investment, and to honor what amounts to at least a moral guarantee of thc survival of the state of Israel. Moscow’s immediate goal is to prevent Israel from once again humiliating and Russia’s client states in the Middle East, which she has rearmed since the 1967 war to the tune of more than $3 billion. Its longer term objective is to make Russia the dominant every inch of territory she conquered in 1967 as well as freedom for en estimated two to 2.5 million Arab refugees to return to their former homes and lands in what is now the state of Israel or to be cumpensated by Israel for their loss. Israe! continues to demand a peace treaty giving her what she describes as “permanent, secure and recognized boundaries,” coupled with freedom of navigation for her ships through the Suez Canal and through the Gulf of Aqaba to her southern port of Eilat. Without this she refuses to budge from her helpless air defenses. Soviet pilots appeared at the same time inIG fighters in Egypt's skies. Rather than risk a direct conflict with Russia, Israel called off her air offensive. On June 19, 1970, U.S. Secretary of State William P. Rogers proposed the so-called “Rogers plan,” calling for a 90day ceasefire and resumption of peace talks. Its aim was to get the two sides to sttop shooting and to start ‘alking before the Middle East conflict sparked a big power confrontation. Much to the surprise of manyseasoned diplomats, both sites accepted and Jaring resumed his peace talks at the United Nations. Almost immedictely Israel pulled out, charging Egypt had taken advantage of the cease fire to push SAM2 and SAM3 les closer to the Suez Canal. The United States confirmed this charge. To compensate for the strategic disadvantage under $500 million in military aid and Nasser died Sept. 28, 1970. $200 million in economic aid Western during 1971. Finally, Israel bowed to strong U.S, pressure and agreed on Dec. 28, 1970, to return to the negotiations. They resumed on Jan. 5 this year, althoughin the form of separate meetings by Jarring with the Israelis ar Arabs. No Compromise Seen So far there is little indication which Jerael suddenly found either side is ready to herself, Washington promised compromise. But there are factors now her 18 more Phantom supersonic jets in 1970 in addition to 50 that did not exist in 1967. already sold her, an additional Egypt's President Gamal Abdel experts believe his successor, Sadat, would gladly switch some of Egypt's slim economic resources towards solving his country’s critical internal problems. But they believe he also feels unable to show himself less belligerent than Nasser. “Tt is far more honorable for us to die while defending our land than to live on our knees in surrender to the conditions of the United States and Israel,” Sadat has said. The Soviet Union has stepped up its stake in the Middle East. Western officials estimate there are between 14,000 and 20,000 Soviet troops in Egypt today. Moscow has armed Egypt with jet fighters, tanks, artillery and antiaircraft rockets and virtually taken over her entire air defense. The Soviets now keep an average of 30 combat ships and 10 submarines in the Eastern Mediterranean, where they constitute a permanent chal lenge to the U.S. 6th Fleet. The only hopeful sign in the Middle East is the return to more stav'e conditions in Jordan, where King Hussein's forces crushed the Palestinian guerrillas in 10 days of bloody civil war last September. The guerrillas no longer are considered a serious military threat to the Middle East peace. For the United States and other Western countries the main interest is lasting peace. But, as Frank Giles, foreigr editor of the London Sunday Times, wrote after a recent Middle East tour, “The first impression is that something not far short of a miracle will be needed if a lasting peace is to 4e achieved in the near future between Arabs and Israelis.” AT conquests. In the search for solutions, Western officials pin their hopes of peace on two slender threads—the revived peace mission of United Nations special envoy Gunnar V. Jarring and the obvious reluctance of either side to end the ceasefire, Jarring Works Tirelessly In the first months ufter the 1967 war Jarring, a Swedish diploma:, shuttled tirelessly between Israel, the Arab capitals and U.N. headquarters in New York, Jarring made no headway, neither did simultaneous effort at the U.N. by the ambassadors of the United States, Britain, France and the Soviet Union. By early 1970 fighting along the Suez Canal between Israel and Egypt had erupted again on a major scale. It was accompanied by deep penetration raids by the Israeli air force into the Egyptian Nile Deita heartland. 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