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Show he SaltLakeTribune BUSINESS MSAVVY CONSUMER, C-5 METRADEWINDS, C-8 Indicators NASDAQ Some economists say downturn in economyshould bottom out soon BY JOHN BERRY THE WASHINGTON POST WASHINGTON S&P 500 CLOSE: 588.23 " CLOSE: 1,157.42 Utah's Top Performers im <1 CLOSE: 206.08. A committee of economists announced Mondaythat a 10-year economic expansion, the longest in U.S. history, ended last Marchandthatthe nation has been in a recession since then. However, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureauof Economic Research said that the contraction in economic activity that began in April was so gradual that a recession might Asusual, the dating committee waited until it could be certain that the economy was actually contracting, not just experiencing a pause in growth, before declaring a recession had begun. That delay was long enough that an increasing numberofforecasters are saying that the bottom of the recession should occur soon. Twoeconomists, Ed Hyman and Nancy Lazar of_ International Strategy and Investment, said Mondaythat “odds are approaching50 percent that the recession has ended. Most compelling has been the decline in unemployment (benefit) claims. Next has weight to payroll employment, which did peak in March,calling it “the broadest monthly indicator . in the entire economy.” “ “Prior to thearrival ofthe data for October 2001, the committee was not sure that the contraction metthe criterion”thatthe total contraction in the been October's surgein retail sales,” which jumped cle sales. The NBER,which pioneered research into businesscycles in the 1920s, long has been regarded as Utah Index ployment, industrial production and inflationadjusted figures for manufacturing andtradesales and personal income excluding transfers such as Social Security benefits. Both industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales peaked several months before March, while the personal income measure continued to rise through September, the latest figure available. But the committee gave greatest sodeinto a recession.” 7.1 percent because of a Pecord level of motor vehi- “Before theattacks, it is possible that the decline in the economy wouldhavebeen too mild to qualify the end of the expansion, including payroll em- have been an important factor in turning the epi- not have occurred except for the Sept, 11 terrorist the economy. recessions begin and end. The dating. committee’ looked at several monthlystatistics in determining asarecession,”the committee statementsaid. “The attacks clearly deepened the contraction and may attacks that had a significant depressing impact on The Bloomberg measures the stock ae, NOVEMBER27,2001 MI WEATHER, C-10 It’s Official: U.S. Is in a Recession YESTERDAY'S Dow Jones @ BUSINESS GLANCE, C-7 Page C-4 the official economy was great enough to carry the recession label. “With a cumulative decline in employment See BOARD,Page C-10 arbiter of- when expansions and performance of the State's maje publicly held companies. Delta to Cut SHOPPING STALWARTS ANALYSIS More Than 200 SLC-Based Wall Street extendedits advance Mondaywith a moderate rally that boosted technology stocks but ultimately failed to take the Dow Jonesindustrials above 10,000 SLC-Area Hotel, Motel Occupancies Fall Pilot Positions Occupancyat Salt Lake-area ho- tels and motels declined11 percent to 55.2 percent in September compared with the same montha year ago, PKFConsulting's Hospitality Research Group(HRG) reported. The result follows a trend experi- ‘THE SALT LAKE TRIBUNE More than 200 Delta Air Lines pilot positions based at Salt Lake City International Airport have been eliminated in the mostrecent round ofreductions by the Atlanta-based airline, a pilots union spokesman said enced by hotels in mostofthe 75 cities the Atlanta-based firm’s report covers. “Hotels are currently being hit Monday. The elimination of 209 positions in Salt Lake City represents about 40 percent of 500 positions cut nationwide in this round, said with a one-twopunch,” said Jack Corgel, managing director of applied research at HRG, “In addition to the n, the hotel market is enduring gma’ brought about Rick Smail, chairman of local Council 81 of the Air LinePilots Association. The numberis disproportionately high in bythe current fearoftravel.” Salt Lake City because Delta is phasing out the 727 modelaircraft, and more positions are In the Salt Lakearea,airport hotels suffered most, with occupancy declining 15.7 percent to53.6 percent fell in September compared with the same monthlast year, from$69.14 to 13. Oly Ads Break Record The 2002 Winter Gameshaveattracted a record $869 million in spon- than in othercities where theairline operates The Target Store at Fort Union in Midvale was busy on Fridayas holiday shoppers went in search of deals. Utah Stores Start Busiest Season Holiday Shopping Retailers optimistic aboutholiday buying, despite national trend holiday season, 4 percent belowlast year’s sales. Ss =I U.S. householdsare sorships, according to tradepublica- tion AdAge.com. _ GeneralElectric Co.'s NBCtelevialso has sold: 92 percent citing an NBCspokesman,A primetime, 30-second commercialwill cost about $600,000, accordingto the report. The amountof sponsorships for the 2002 Games surpasses last year’s Sydney Olympics, which drew $350 million, and the Winter Gamesin Nagano, Japan, which attracted $212 million, AdAge.com said. Companies can buydifferent types ofsponsorships, with businesses like McDonald's Corp. paying as much as $100 million for “global Olympic marketing rights,” AdAge.com said. Advertising on NBCis in addition to the spending on Olympic sponsorships, according to AdAge.com. The Salt Lake City Games run from Feb. 8 to Feb. 24, Intel to Cut Prices Again Intel Corp.will trim processor prices in January by an average of 14 percent, a smaller margin than the biggest computer-chip maker's cuts this year, Salomon Smith Barney analyst Jonathan Joseph said, ‘The price changes will come Jan. 27, Joseph wrote in a notetoclients, citing a report Intel gaveits customers. They will follow average cuts of 40 percentin August and 23 percent in October and comethree months after the last reductions, compared with the two-month period between previous ones, he said. Intel, which operates a eaaareh and developmentfacility in Riverhas slas! price of its Penthe chip came out in November, Seee Caeae bolster sales ofthe personal computers that use it. Now, supply of the through June,so fewer reductions may occur US.retail sales are expected to be about$50billion this ro) What we’ll spend BY PAULBE! D> projected to spend PAN PS =® Buying online About 22% say they will shop on the Internet; top gifts: (SSEan averageof $462 THES In planning for the holidays, Janet Hill and Lita Wellins took differentrisks and therein lies the reason Utah retailers are not counting on a robust shopping season this year. Hill, a financial planner from Midvale,is single. Her business is good, so she will increase her $500 or more Toys, games 33% $200 to $500 40% Less than $200 27% RT, ©2001 KRT $1,000 this year. “I'm spending more because I haveit and I believeit’s the patriotic thing to do,” said Hill, who was shopping Monday at Mervyn's in the CrossroadsPlaza. “So manypeople havelost their jobs.I feel kind of privileged, and it’s kind of my obligation to do my part,” Hill said. Wellins, a Dallas-based flight attendant for No’. Air Lines, is cutting her holiday budget. Worried about her job, Wellins will spend $500 this year, down from $1,000 in 2000 — andplans only to send letters to her three grown children. “Definitely less,” said Wellins, whowas looking at shoes in Nordstrom, “I was oneof the fortunate people who was not laid off from myjob. tokeraselre J Earlier’ this month, 11,000 employees Books agreed to one of six voluntary cutback pro- grams, jeavitie Just 2,000 positions in ques- . tion, said Peggy Estes, a Delta spokeswoman. eee . Music CDs 31% Ofthose 2,000,1,700 are pilots who were not eligible for voluntary programs. An initial roundof reductions cut 400 pilot positions; the mostrecent round brings that number to 900, Smail said. “Hopefully in future rounds, Salt Lake City won't be as dramatically affected,” he Net Sales s said. Analysts watching e-commerce C-5 industry will be in the months ahead. Because ofthat, I have curtailed my spending,” she said. The tale of two randomly chosen shoppers underscores the “Butit’s still uncertain what. the outcome for the airline See UTAH,Page C-9 Delta, the nation’s third-largest airline, employed nearly 4,800 in Salt Lake City before the cutbacks, including about 850 pilots here. Seven Salt LakeCity-based pilots were laid off in the first roundofpilot cutbacks. It is unclear how manyof the 300 nonpilot layoffs affected employees based in Salt Lake City, Estes said. lisac@sltrib.com Military Now Can Join Employer-Sponsored Savings Plan BY SANDRA BLOCK USA TODAY Joining the military means making sacrifices. The workis often dangerous.Starting pay is low. You may be separated from your family for months. But now, there is one benefit members of the military won't have to give up: an employer-sponsored retirement savings To avoid early-withdrawal penalties, you must leave the money alone until you are 59%, although you can borrow from your TSP account. ‘The change closes a big gap in the military's retirement savings program. While the military provides a pension, members mustserveatleast 20 years to qualify. Only about 18 percent of military members are eligible for retirement benefits. “Ifyou didn’t stay for 20 years, you didn’t get anything unless you had a disability,” says Jackie Hayes, a financial educator for the Naval District Family Support Center in Washington. Now, members of the military “can get started on their nest egg right away.” tion from Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Joseph said. “The news is good for snvemgre a 43% ifthe airline industry’s outlook improves. “Tt’s possible there maybe somelayoffsbut it’sae possible they may not happen,” Smail said. The cutbacks are part ofDelta’s overall efforts to reduce its work force by 13,000 following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, which devastated the nation’s travel industry by making many consumers reluctantto fly. Le Christmas spending onhernieces. and nephewsfrom $500 last year to hubs,hesaid. Theelimination of the positions does not mean 209 pilots necessarily will lose their jobs. Somepilots may be furloughed and others may assumepositions with less seniority. In addition,the planningperiod for which the jobs have been eliminated extends Open Enroliment. Enrollmentin the TSP began Oct. 9 Account balance of armed services memberwho contributes 7 percent of $26,000 in annual basic pay to thrift savings plan: 4 percent average annual return $10,140 $22,360 $37,440 $55,640 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years $10,920 $26,260 $48,100 $79,040 Source: Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board You dotnot need a lot of money to contribute: You can start with as little as 1 percentofyour basic pay. Tf you already have a 401(k) plan from a civilian job, you can roll that money into your TSP. ae you leave the military, you your TSE savings inten individual retirement account or your private apiplover’s past tf hat rian parents rollovers, says Danny Devine, spokesman for the Employee Benefit Research Institute. # 7 percent return 10 percent retum $11,700 $30,940 $62,920 $115,180 USA TODAY Like the TSP for civilian governmentworkers, the military TSP offers pd etole investmentoptions: a in September. Occupancy for downtown hotels declined 10.3 percent to 62.1 percent. The average daily room rate also affected by that phaseoutin Salt Lake City |
