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Show TheSalt Lake Tribune OPINION AA5 Sunday, May 30, 1999 Sendingin Ground Troops Get Ready for Youthquake as Teens Reach Billion Could DamageRelationships sible portion of my bookcase,to BY IVAN ELAND FOR THEBRIDG! EWS Hungary, Bulgaria and Macedonia are likely to refuse to be staging areas. Only Albania — WASHINGTON — In the next with terrain and infrastructure few weeks, NATO will make a fateful decision on whether to (ports and roads) less suitable for a staging area seems eager to send to the Balkansa ground force potent enough to retake Kosovo. The rapid decision is necessitated by the substantial numberof monthsit would take to assemble the force before the onset of the Balkan winterin October. There are a numberof severe problems with assembling a force andinvading the province,starting with the immensepolitical ramifications. U.S. relations with Russia already strained by the air war — could be damaged for years to come. The Russians have already abandoned military-to-military planning for a U.S.-Russian center to share early warning data on potential attacks by nuclear mis- siles. The center was to have been part of a broader effort to combat Y2K glitches in the decrepit Russian early warning system. Several brushes with accidental nuclear war that were caused by breakdownsin the Russian host the forcesof the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Even if NATO could find a suitable staging area, it may now be too late for a lumbering alli- ance of 19 nations to reach con. sensus on sending such a large force and actually conduct the formidable logistical task of get- ting it in place before the Balkan winter. Indeed, a consensus on a groundinvasion of Kosovo is un likely. If the alliance prepares or conducts a ground invasion, the governments of | , Greece, Germany andthe Czech Republic could all fall from internal pres- sure. Consequently, those nations are not enthralled with theidea. Theonly alliance memberthat seemsat all enthusiastic about a ground attack is the Labour governmentin the United Kingdom,a stance also driven by domestic pressure,in this instancefrom the Conservative Party. It seems the warning system may pale in com- British government is willi at the turn of the centuryif all cooperation between the United wouldonce again do the “heavy lifting” in any ground invasion parison with what could happen States and Russia is terminated. In addition, any ground attack on Kosovo might erode Russian and Chinese willingness to help stanch the flow of their nuclear, chemical, biological and missile technology to roguestates. risk the lives of Ameri troduction of ground forces into with two nuclear powers. Practical problems also abound. Theterrain, weather and adversary are much different fromthose experiencedin Desert Storm. No one should expect Kosovoto lead to another resounding victory. NATO could experience many casualties at the hands ofa Serbian adversarytrained for years in guerrilla tactics in inhospitable mountainousterrain The amount of support NATO air forces could provide for groundforces might be limited by the weather, which hasalready complicated the air war. And, un: like the Iraqis who fled Kuwait, the Serbs are likely to be highly motivated tofight for Kosovo, the cradleof Serbian civilization. sion”? That was dropped in 1958, when demographers found that the world’s population was in creasing by 53 million people a year. Sincethen, rates of population growth have slowed considerably, but weare still adding 78 million people each year So now they have dropped a couple of others: “Youthquake and the Day of Six Billion.” As phrases go, those are nice grab: bers. Theyhaveafine, apocalyptic edgeto them, with just a scorched whiffof doom Anyway, they aredoing thejob. Those phrases grabbed my atten studies on sub-Saharan famine relief plans What the report had to say ertyalsois the inevitable nexus of foreign policy planners in Wash violence. ingtonand other major capitals. Oct. 12 of this year will be the “Day ions But this youthquake in the de: veloping world is in sharp contrast world’s population will reach that breathtaking number. As thereport's authorssay, in the history of the world, no century can match the population growth of the one nowcomingtoa close. We entered the 20th century withless than2billionpeople, andwe leave it with more than6billion.” That’s enough to give you pause. But perhaps more interest ing is the projection that onthat day, half of the world’ss population will be under 1 billion of themteen-agers the largest such group ever. That's the Grabs you, report shows, will live in develop ing nations, in economies under As for me, I just couldn't get that one number out of my head: 1 billion teen-agers. Just think of that: 1 billion slouching, sullen figures wearing expressions of squisite boredom with a world they didn’t make. That's enot tosend anyone into cardiac arrest at least anyone who's had to en dure life with even one teen-ager in the household. No, really think about it: Enough hormones gen erated to send the globe spinning a single major industrialized nation has fertility above the “replacement level” of two chil dren per couple. Because of huge leaps in health care, life expect ancy in the industrialized world has increased dramatically, re sulting in an unprecedented num: into a manic-depressivecycle that would make prospects for a new Ice Age seem like a blessing: hordesof teens glued to computer joysticks across the world What kept coming to mind was the old line from Stalin, the one about one death being a tr ty and a million deaths just a statis: tic. He had apoint, but statistics can be awe-inspiring, too. One berof people living toa ripe old age unthinkable for our ancestors That, of course, has all sorts of serious implications: fewer workers billion teen-agers. It doesn’t bear thinking about. Which is why, af ter scanning the report, | pitched it to join my moldering pileof dis patches on global warming, nu clear winter andthe propheciesof Nostradamus. But I didn’t throwit out. You never know Adrian Peracchio is a Newsday editorial writer it? The policy implications, both Weoe 6 eit Interest FREE now thru Meat Memorial Day DOOR BUSTERS Full LLCs) Cla Pky Queen Mattress | 33 King , seared Cy sr $455 sr" $249 Bye Twin $205 $389 ier $209 & sre $349 Be iar $389 Et siren $629 Volunteers with diabetes needed to participate in an investigational research drug study CHESTS To qualify you must be 65 years or older, with a three month history of diabetes. 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Taking part in an investigational research study is an excellent opportunity to learn more about a chroniciliness and howtotreatit. birth rates have and even the most basic social Even if NATO forces were suc: NEW MEDICATIONS STUDIED nations, where shows thatas the century ends, not the 20th century comesto aclose. as which mightsee an opportunity to in Washington tothe trends in the industrialized beendroppingsteadily. Thereport Just in time, too: | was about to Six Billion,” anew studyof worri win independencefrom the Serbs. Ivan Elandis director ofdefense policy studies at the CatoInstitute crime and personal andpolitical thesepopulations trends are so intricate, so difficult to puzzle out that, after a while, the mind just shuts down. What can we make of tome, “World Population Beyond someglobal population trends ‘youthquake” part. doesn’t it? offensive),its forces might have to pacify both the Serbian army and the Kosovo Liberation Army, loses. ly. Thelinkage of youth and pov mademe sit up and pay attention. You should, too, and so should great stress, with severely limited opportunities for education, jobs lation Reference Bureau's latest sufficiently degraded bythe air trapped for years to come. In short, even if NATO “wins,” it foreign and domestic, arethe stuff Most of those young people, the tionin a cover letter for the Popu- Kosovo could be a debacle. If NATO invaded in a “semipermissive” environment (after Milosevic’s armyhad been cessful in compelling Serbian forces to withdraw from Kosovo and the KLAto disarm, thealliance wouldhavetoset up a government inthe province and make it a protectorateof the West As it has been in Bosnia, the alliance would verylikely be and thedecline in Russianagricultural output. services. They will be exposed to gr risks for HIV and AIDS infections. clamoring for jobs that will only be availableto them by emigratingto richer nations, most likely illegal to support a growing number of pensioners, enormous strains on healthcare systems and budgets. The possible repercussions of President SlobodanMilosevic. Even if NATO “won,” the in- Further complicating matters is the reluctance of most neighboring countries to be launching points for any groundinvasion. course. They knowthat their reports on population trends have the soporificeffect of the strongest prescription sedatives on thegeneral public. So they drop verbal bombs. Remember “population explo es. He ruledthemoutatfirst andis siles and other weapons of mass destruction — or a new Cold War gatherdust along with moldering Demographers like explosive dent Al Gore in the presidential election of 2000, has wisely been cautious about using groundforc- now ruling themin again, perhaps in an attempt to scare Yugoslav pitch the report upto an inacces NEWSDAY metaphors andcataclysmic simi. les. It's really a desperateploy, of President Clinton, who knows the political pitfalls that high casualties would create for himself and for the chancesofVice Presi- “Winning” a small civil warin Kosovois not worth the increased risk of an accidental nuclear war, more rapid proliferation of mis: BY ADRIAN PERACCHIO Z Cd |