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Show "T ia',i"trnt'm j Wiytt'111 r iif i 4 Jack W. Gurmoml ami Jnlus jrorr TVs Bananas Over Primaries Tlii Chicago Tribune f our bust friends Sunn WASHINGTON we in the television news (Indue. But Georue Hush hos a valid complaint about the way two covered the CBS and ABC ol tlu net works tin y of Ins big victory in Michigan as a defeat. The fact that Bush had soundly trounced Itnuald Reagan in one of the Id largest states rush of ua, overwhelmed by the the two networks to project meaning "declare" Reagan the ultimate winner of the nomination on the strength of the number of deeats he had added to his total even in Basic Tax Reform Decision Iii Utah Voting Booth defeat. Indeed, "congratulated just taken a bath there was Reagan being on his victory when he had in an important state. Bushs campaign manager, James Raker, described himself as shocked at the way the networks played it. And although Jim Baker is as devoted to hyperbole as any politician, in this ease he clearly did have teason to in shocked. Everyone in the news business, print or electronic, understands the pressure of competition. Any story is that much better if you i i Conceivably, the 1981 Legislature could budget $35 million less for state programs. But higher education and other agencies funded from the state general fund are already howling about previous More if food tax the measure sales likely, passes, legislators will be compelled to look harder at the property tax credit act when they convene next s. January. Its not, however, the legislators decision to make at this point. The squeeze $32 answer is up to Utah voters. If the venue potential. But those income food sales tax proposal is defeated, sources are now suffering further tax relief effort need not the property trims. be replaced. The result would be just g acIn its own the opposite if the repeal succeeds. has federal eliminated tion, Congress Either way, Utah voters can finally revenue-sharin- g for state govern- influence directly the legislative, ments. Utahs loss is estimated at $7 political debate over which kind of million during fiscal 81. Beyond that, tax reforms taxpayers statewide recession is already eroding state prefer. is budget-balancin- French Flavor Theres little need make more out of French President Giscard dEstaings surprise meeting in Warsaw with Soviet Union President to Leonid Brezhnev. Novice U.S. Secretary of State Edmund Muskies comments about the session occurring without sufficient Atlantic Alliance consultation dont require ex- tended emphasis. d War France, since the II rise of Charles deGaulle, has post-Worl- always considered itself nicely positioned as a bridge between East and West. That was reflected in Foreign Minister Jean Francois-Poncet- s d response to Mr. Muskie: France conducts an independent foreign policy. It talks with whom it wants and when it wants and needs nobodys permission to do mock-annoye- . and President Brezhnev. But it has been booked in advance and scheduled after an allied summit next month in Venice. Herr Schmidt might suspect Monsieur Giscard was trying to steal a march on him. More likely, the French felt time and events couldnt wait any longer for their brand of Even if they were mistaken, the h attempt shouldnt sour relations. In fact, observers had previously concluded the two countries were getting along as well as ever. Both saw the Soviet truculence in Af- Bmistnn By Jamo Kindlier M. Bernstein New York Daily News BOSTON Almost six months Soviet invasion of Afghanistan after the shocked American policy makers and raised the ominous potential threat of Soviet domination of the Persian Gulf oil region, the United States is still struggling to develop a policy for defense of an area that is absolutely vital to the intrests of the worlds industrial democracies. This was essentially the conclusion of a group of Persian Gulf experts who conducted a two-da- y seminar on the subject this week for a group of reporters at the Institute of Politics at Harvards John F. Kennedy School of Govern- French resentment. Orbiting Paragraphs ment. Two of the experts former Ambassador Hermann F. Eilts, who served in Egypt and Saudi Arabia and is now a professor at Boston University , and William B. Quandt, who served as a Middle East specialist on the National Security Council from l'i77 to 1971) and is now a Professor Richard Christie, a psychologist at Columbia, has been studying other differences for the past 25 years, and in particular who they are. manipulative personalities how they act and. tentatively, how they got that way. lie labels those who are most manipulative "high Mach" and those who are least so "low Mach." The term derives from Niccolo Machiavelli. whose good name may never escape the meanness of history. Professor Christie has fashioned lists and laboratory experiments which, to his delight, appear to distinguish between dilferent types His Mach experiments include the Ten Dollar Game, in which a low-- , middle- - and high Mm h s personality bargain for real money. The trick is that the cash must be split up by two subjects in a manner agreed ujxin by all three. You can guess who gets the money. people." Just like real life. It is enough to give e classes being tested, thousands of schoolchildren bent over Mach tests, all of them being watched fearfully by s teachers. Would clever their answers, the seek to discover better to manipulate those around them? name has The pity is that Macluavellis -- hrunk over the years to become his Mach, although the thoughts of the astute Florentine still apply. Such as, "When neither their property nor their honor is touched, tlu majority of men live content." The pity, too. is that Dr. Christie has complicated our lives. Peter DeVries once observed that mankind may be divided between those who drink their coffee during meals and those who take it afterward. This had, unlil Dr. UhrisMe came along, been a fairly good rule of thumb. Now we riu-- t bev an of high M.uhs with large 1Q- - who end tip with Hie kindergarten's chewing gum. Ami. to he glum about il. we inn-- t liso beware ol low Mac1'' - ck.iig pio'ei in a lugh M.u li world hll-il- r Will del -t II !es to D Perhaps III us visions of low-M-- Some preliminary conclusions of the Christie studies were reported recently in The New York Times. Highly manipulative behavior was found in children as young as 4. increasing years. Also one's Ma'! rapidly in the level seems unrelated to political beliefs, intelligence or education. However, high Machs with an education tend to do exceptionally well, while high Machs without one tend to do exceptionally poorly. This should not. perhaps, be surprising. It is no secret that, say, politicians who are devious and smart seem to do better than those who are sympathetic and smart; and that both do better than those who are both dev ious and stupid It is a fascinating exercise, particularly so m what it reveals about peoples' attitudes toward one another. We find. said Mr. Christie, "that high Machs think low Machs are stupid, or at least socially naive. And the low Moolis Hunk the highs are immoral, nasty suits ul pre-tee- n r' Oil Word: that is. people have none in for acronyms making a word out of the initials of a series of words. A similar piece of what might be called folk etymology concerns the derivation of the word posh, meaning elegant. The story was that when elegant Britons traveled to India they demanded staterooms on the cool side of Port Out, Starboard Home. Its an the ship interesting idea, but real etymologists dtn-'- t accept it. They say the origin of the word is obscure or unknown and let it go at that. first-grad- high-Mach- h low-Mac- h il- - mil are senior fellow at the Brookings Institute particularly qualified to assess the Persian Gulf situation because they both were deeply involved in policy making for that area of the world during the first two years of the Carter administration. Avoid Criticism Although Eilts and Quandt steered clear of making any direct personal criticisms of President Carter, both expressed concern over what they regard as serious errors of judgment by the administration in dealing with a series of problems in the area over the past two years. But more important than past errors, which Quandt dismissed as water over the dam. has been the failure of the administration to devise a policy to defend the vital oil region from what they regard as a dear danger posed by the presence of 85,000 Russian troops in AJghanistan. The United States had such a policy until the fall of the Shah of Iran early last year, one that was well understood by the Soviets and the countries in the region and one that was considered adequate to deal with any of a wide range of problems that could conceivably arise to threaten the interests of the United States or its allies. Iran Was Key Regional security was provided by Iran, military power in the area and a close and trusted U.S. ally, while the United States provided a nuclear umbrella to fend off any threat from the Soviet Union. Low State to Which Machiavelli Has Fallen as imagination and creativity? It much like attempting to cast light on lightning flashes. Vet common sense tells us that people are diffcient from one another. We label one a no her "cold" or warm" a causally as if people were poured from faueets. So it is not surprising that sneial sib'iiti-t- s presume the dillcienees are measurable all that Congratulations Premature Neither of these things is likely to happen, But it is still premature ol to s "congratulations" to winning i almost two months before the convention. If we follow the lead of the network.-- , we might as well cancel those primaries June 8. And why bother holding a convention at ail. Detroit in July is no picnic. The way things are going we wont have to bother with primaries at all in 14. , ad we will simply commission CBS and ARC to do some polls and "project" the winners whiic we all go to the hall jaim. If Dan Rathir and Frank Reynolds say its all over, who's to argue. iCopyrighti In-;- iejihart icvMiint From The Washington Star Can one measure such elusive talents Iht and Persian Gulf Policy Void Costs U.S. ing and avoid provoking purposeless Any man who has never been in a will make a lousy president. Theodore Word oddities. Commenting on a recent item here that traced the word cop, meaning a IHilicoman, back almost two centuries to the verb cop, meaning to catch or arrest. Dale M. Sebum of Haddon Township. N.J., writes that for thirty years or more he has heard that cop comes from Constable On Patrol. That derivation seems unlikely, for one thing because it is only in relatively recent times that U.S.-Frenc- To he late tor an appointment is to announce you'd rather he somewhere else Capitalism will continue to work only as lung as it works harder than government. s andi-date- super-power- What disturbed Mr. Muskie, and presumably others among the NATO allies, was the suddeness. Such moves. Western Alliance members, including France, keep telling themselves. should he made with mutual consultation. West Germany is for a summit meeting preparing between Chancellor Helmut Schmidt misi-ile- eour.se. proudly-proclaime- of Afghanistan and U.S. reactions to it. President Giscard decided he should do some mediating. not plant MX Ii y ghanistan in equally foreboding terms. France has, without much urging, increased its military preparedness spending. Mr. Muskie made a point of meeting with Presiso. dent Giscard during the new secretinded This ary of states European tour. pendence is thought by French France is normally a country that officials to help its allies, allowing the the appearance of innoappreciates Gallic diplomats to calm atmosvation more than than the role of s start conformity. But its participation is pherics when creating global tension. Evidently, important to the defense and stability considering events in the Middle of Western Europe. Better the White East, especially Russias unsettling House worked with that understandinvasion Projections' Reagan's ease, the two networks recognized this caveat by describing their ex cathedra pronouncements as projections ol the outcome. Rut the viewers cannot be expected to make these fine distinctions. What they see and hear is that it's all over And the same is true, obviously, ol the potential contributors to whom George Push is appealing for the money to finance his campaign m California. As a matter of fact, the networks are probably right. It probably is all over in both parties. Rut. as the networks have discovered on several notable occasions in the past, this rush to hand down an absolute judgment can prove embarrassing. The voters, and events, do not always fulfill even the most siiintdic predictions about their behavior. In this case, for example, there is no tpiestion that at least some Republican delegates supporting Reagan might have some .second thoughts if Bush were to defeat him in all three of the major primaries June J in California. Ohio and New Jersey. Nor is there any question that some delegates might reconsider if Reagan were to become ill before the convention and the issue of his age were revived In calculated to million from state re- That package I -- much as $10 million. Totalling these two figures with a possible $20 million deducted if the food sales tax repeal passes, computes an amount uncomfortably in excess of property tax reliefs $32 million. State government cant afford both sales tax and property tax relief. cut-back- it 1 fast forming economic dcvclop-incnt- s sales and income tax collections. are making Utahs alterna- Conservative estimates place the tives for taxpayer relief far more possible short-fa- ll below, that is, distinct than originally expected. A legislative budget estimates at as definite either, or proposition could confront state voters by the fall election. The situation, interestingly, coincides with debates beard in the Utah Legislature during at least the last two sessions. It pits property tax help against sales tax cuts. Removing state sales tax from food purchases is a referendum issue scheduled for Utah balloting in the fall general election. If passed, it is expected to cost state government at least $20 million during the remainder of fiscal 1981. But the loss is even greater, combined with other looming reductions, and could wipe out a property tax credit plan enacted by last winters legislative gathering. ahead ot tile other guy, Ny ell. u oh But the television networks have gene absolutely bananas with this business id being the first to announce something Hint hasn ( really happened yet And what ARC and RS did Tuesday night was the ultimate The fact is that every major ucw m gam.i tion has been keeping a count of the delegate-wo- n by Reagan in the eontesi lor Itu Republican nomination and President 'alter in the campaign for the Demoera'ie minima turn. And all of them have been fix used mi tin that is. the H'lS Uepubh magic numbers" can and .( Democratic delegates needed In make up a simple majority Delegates In Tw Moreover, for several weeks now. all the media have been reporting that Reagan and Carter appear to have enough delegates already committed and certain to be committed to them to assure their ultimate victories But, particularly on the Republican side any prudent reporter ipialilies tiinse asse meiits with a vital caveat Many nl those delegates who are counted for Reagan are not bound In him either by state law or party rules Reeause of stricter patty rules, the Democratic dele gates generally have less Mobility allowed them Thus, for example, Reagan h.e the support ol more than inn delegates in New Jink and Pennsylvania alone who will lie leehnieally free agents when they arrive at the convi tiRon in Detroit in July. There is no ilrndit they are and there is little doubt the; wiil vote for Reagan when the time mines Rut they are not locked in concrete if some totally unforeseen event occurs. have Meanwhile, the United States maintained bilateral relationships with the other countries in the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia, the state whose assignment primary was to protect Western interests within OPEC in terms of the production and price of oil. But the fall of the shah and his replacement revolutionary by the virulently government manipulated by the Ayatollah Ruliollah Khomeini changed all that. The U.S. failure to preserve the Shah's pro-- S. regime seriously undermined confidence in the United States among the other states in the region and the disintegration of Irans military forces created a dangerous power vaeuum, which the United States was either unwilling or unable to fill. Ripped Policy Apart in Thus, it wasn't the seizure of U.S. Tehran last November or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan last December which ripped apart this countrys Persian Gulf policy. That was accomplished by Hu installation of the Khomeini regime almost a year earlier. Il could lu argued, in fact, that the absence of a U.S polity lil.iv have contrihu'ed to those two unhappy lid elopliielits Im.-tag- In any case, there is no question that Hit hostage crisis in Iran and the presence of S,7,1101) Russian troops in neighboring Afghanistan complicates Carter's prohlcm in devising a new Persian Gulf policy. At tin same time it makes the formulation of such a policy all the more urgent. While Eilts and Quandt confessed that they were themselves unable to lay out a brilliant new policy for the seminar .group, they did have some suggestions for Uai ter to consider in dealing with tin explosive Persian Gulf problems he faces. post-sha- h Silly Mistakes' One was to "quit making silly mistakes.'' as U.N Quandt termed the vote to condemn Israel on the West Bank settlements issue. The vote, whu h Carter later called a mistake for width lie blamed funner Secretary of State Cyrus Yniue. angered the Israelis, while tlu retraction of the vole later outraged the Aral) states. Tin United States is no longer "highly regarded in the area." Quandt said, because ol "the silly things he do" and because ul tlu perception that this country no lunger can he trusted to live up to its commitments. On the positive side, Eilts recommended that Carter continue to show pain m e and restraint on the hostage issue and cumentrate on attempting to lay the groundwork for a resumption of closer ties with tin Tehran government once the hostage crisis is resolved n Still the Key current the rupture in relations. Despite Iran, with its large population and strategic location commanding the Persian Gulf and the Straits nf Hormuz, is still the key in an plan to defend the region. Both men also see an urgent need fur the President to press for progress in the vi:li(.( Palestinian autonomy talks between Egy pt ami Israel. Until provision is made for Palestinian autonomy on the West Bank of tlu Jurd.tn and the Gaza Strip, there is little likelihood thai Hi,, other Islamic states in the region will drop their adamant opposition to the Egypt peace treaty anil their anger at the United States for sponsoring the Camp David talks. Without the cooperation and support of the Islamic oil states in the Gulf region, there is no way that the United Stales can formulate a tilan to contain Soviet cxpansionsim then. Eilts believes. And lie is com meed that .m il cooperation and support will not he forthcoming until the Aral) stales are satisfied that the United Stales lia.s lived up to its commitment to find a ju-- l and equitable solution to the pi ohieni ol Ilie displaced Palestinians. K opv right k i i |