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Show Page THE HERALD, Provo, Utah, D4 Sunday, March 24, 1991 Gorbachev retreats from reform, but how far? Soviet improvements may hurt U.S. exports MOSCOW Before Mikhail (AP) Gorbachev and perestroika, Soviet citizens could buy food, but not the works of such banned authors as Alexander Solzhenitsyn. Now the stores have Solzhenitsyn, but little food. The changes during Gorbachev's six years in power go far beyond bread and books, touching the deepest roots of the communist system. But as he retreats from reform, precisely how the fundamentals of power have shifted remains unclear. Nor is it clear how far Gorbachev will retreat from democracy. Many of the changes he has wrought would be hard to undo. Soviet troops are out of Afghanistan, communist regimes throughout Eastern Europe have been allowed to fall, the Warsaw Pact military alliance is being dissolved and a united Germany is part of NATO. In greatest danger are his more fragile reforms of Soviet domestic politics; the newly won freedoms of speech, press and religion, and elected legislatures. "Historically, I am an optimist," prominent reformer Sergei Stank-evicdeputy mayor of Moscow, said in an interview with The Associated Press. "I am absolutely sure that these forces cannot be stopped. Of course, it is like a wave process." As the wave of reform recedes, structures of communist power are reasserting themselves: the Communist Party, KGB, military, the state broadcast monopoly and the gargantuan aphowever, the old paratus that manages heavy industry. Despite the repeal of a constitu $ 04 O& tional amendment guaranteeing the Communist Party a monopoly on power, only the Communists are allowed to have cells in the military and KGB. Gorbachev still is both party chief and president of the nation. Alongside the old structures stand those created or revived under Gorbachev: elected legislatures, an uncensored press, religious bodies. "The struggle is between the totalitarian structures and democratic structures," social scientist Oleg Bogomolov said in an interview with the weekly Moscow News, itself a product of glasnost. Exact results of the struggle cannot be tallied as one might count votes in a Western election. Despite six years of glasnost, Gorbachev's policy of greater openness, the inner workings of power remain largely hidden. Secret telephone calls from the Kremlin or Communist Party headquarters often carry more weight than a law passed by the Supreme Soviet legislature. "As long as these structures remain secret ... we will continue to remain unaware of the many hidden springs that set politics in motion," said reformer Galina What, then, has Gorbachev accomplished? When elected general secretary of the Communist Party on March 11, 1985, Gorbachev was 54 years old. He followed three leaders in their 70s who let the country to atrophy into what is now called the "period of stagnation." In his rise through the party apparatus, Gorbachev gave little hint of being a reformer. Then, in & OrMO &0 ATTCMTIAMII 2 Get your Personalized Easter Eggs at 0 0 0 $ 0 0 SINCE 1B23 a speech three months before his election, he introduced phrases that took quick root in the political lexicon: economic acceleration, re- form of economic management, democratization, stant theme, party-dominate- Phone N. Univ. 377-647- 5 , ( R 0 0 Although the elections were the freest since the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, American scholar Dawn Mann notes that "the fundamental COPY PAPER dropped from $1.80 per ruble to 56 cents recently, but the black market rate is only 3 to 5 cents per ruble. That type of weakness and instability makes the ruble unacceptable for transacting international business. The Soviets are forced to pay their international bills with either hard currency (gold or some other stable currency), or through barter arrangements. Eventually, some analysts out. "When the Russian ruble becomes convertible into hard currency, it will mean that Russia has solved its own interior problems," says Marshall Goldman, Center for Russian Research, Harvard University. "And in that case, they'll not be increasing their imports, but competing with the U.S. on the open market." Philip M. Raup, University of Minnesota ag economist, says, "It's hard to determine the effect of a convertible ruble, but I believe the stabilization of the ruble will lead to an increase in Russian output and a cutback of imports from the U.S." Not all economists are so pessimistic. Bill Liefert, who econostudies centrally-planne- d mies for USDA, thinks the importance of a convertible ruble has been exaggerated in terms of changing Soviet trade "In the long run a country must balance its trade in terns of hard currency," he says. "Currency convertibility acts more as a lubricant to trade rather than a factor that by itself substantially changes a level or pattern of trade." Liefert feels the Soviets are to jump into any immediate economic too conservative ,;. Let the EASTER BUNNY Deliver Your EASTER BASKETS With EASTER BINNY WITH THIS if COUPON 10 Gift and Food Baskes Orem 434 West Center 9) ii i u I ii i sergers give all your fashions the finishing touch. The Brightest your Easter basket with savings on a high performance hobbylock from Raff! Add your own creative touches to fashions with decorative stitching and finishing g and versatility. 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And then, watch FREE PHOTC $275 I) IF YOU HAVE A VCR VALUE CARD VALUE CARD they'll become much more competitive in international markets, perhaps even expanding their own exports. One big obstacle to economic development in the Soviet Union is the lack of a convertible currency. The Russian ruble is not acceptable to third parties for goods and services. The BY THE CASE 69 East 10M ,iw out by their economic act together, 500-da- M 0 Ave., Provo, Utah Hours 10:30-6:0- 0 (lc,inin...in In groups. Nominations for the others are made by local committees generally controlled by the party or government. VCR SERVICE home ol s,j;ic That's' the opinion of many Soviet watchers. Their theory is that as the Soviets get long-tim- e 0 p. 45 goods. role began to shrink as the Supreme Soviet granted Gorbachev more and more authority. In September 1990, it virtually voted away its own function by giving Gorbachev the right to impose presidential rule. Later, it granted him the right to carry out economic reform by decree rather than legislation. Gorbachev's economic reforms have been haphazard. Discussion of a market economy did not begin in earnest until the 19th Communist Party Conference in the summer of 1988. The next year, Gorbachev rejected a plan to shift from a centrally planned economy to one in which prices and production levels are et by market forces, as in the West. Last fall, he rejected the y plan for market but was never d allies have broken with hardline communism and begun to move toward an open economy. The move is hailed as good news in terms of world peace and expanding trade, reports Successful Farming magazine. But there may be a black lining in this silver cloud, at least in terms of agricultural trade with the Soviets. They may be buying fewer U.S. farm ent's achieved in the Western sense. Elections were held in March 1989 for the Congress of People's Deputies, a new parliament of 2,250 seats, including 750 reserved for Communist Party organizations or other Press People have watched in wonder as the Soviet Union and its By The Associated Real legislative work is done by the Supreme Soviet, made up of 542 members elected by the Congress from its own ranks. The first session of the Congress, in summer 1988, was a spectacular display, with rousing speeches by veteran reformers like Andrei D. Sakharov and such members of the new generation as Deputy Mayor Stankevich of Moscow. Early in 1990, the high point of legislative power came when the congress created a more powerful presidency, occupied by Gorbachev, and abolished the Communist Party's guaranteed power monopoly-Parliam- glasnost. He first tried to revive the country with campaigns against alcoholism and lax work habits. The results were poor and the campaigns unpopular. At the same time, Gorbachev replaced many officials who were either corrupt or too closely tied to previous leaders. Tens of thousands of people were sentenced for bribery and other economic crimes. Early in his tenure, Gorbachev announced the policy of glasnost, probably his most successful and enduring reform. Scores of banned books, movies and plays now are available and the press is alive with debate. For all his appealing rhetoric, Gorbachev has never enunciated a complete reform program or timetable. Progress has been piecemeal rather than planned. Democratization has been a con- We will be writing names on your favorite flavors of easter eggs this Fri. & Sat. 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