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Show Thursday, December 31, The 1S59 Babson's '60 Business Forecast (Continued from page 1) all stocks, I forecast ing 1960 will continue to be a with portfolio that United Fruit may be most in well - diversified d in stocks for possible demand In 1960. In bonds 47. I predict that only a few growth profits, railroads will be popular during for safety and income, and in cash in order to have 1960, such as Canadian Pacific, Union Pacific, Northern Pacific, funds available for investment in and perhaps Southern Pacific and the severe and sudden drop in the Atchison. A am bearish on Penn- stock market which will come Railroad, New Tork some day. sylvania CONCLUSION New Central, Haven, and all short lines except for the Norfolf The three handicaps to Amer& Western, my "pet gravity ican business in 1960 will be inroad." I also fear a short rail- creasing installment purchases, road strike. the unfair demands of labor un48. Failures will continue to in- ion leaders, and President Eisencrease during 1960. hower's physical condition. The 49. I forecast that the huge three hopes for America are our national roadbuilding program churches, our schools, and. our will give an uplift to business as praying parents. election. Then there may come a break, whichever party wins the election next November. 42. I forecast 1960 will be the year to buy good bonds. United States Government Bonds yielding 5 are a great bargain. Anyone buying them is bound to make money. I also like all bonds and also some taxable but convertible bonds. 43. I forecast some chemical stocks will still be a buy in 1960, although they yield little income and are good only as growth stocks. 44. There will be failures by the thousands among those companies now issuing electronics stocks. Electronics issues have become a popular fad. There is also unemployment ahead for many who are now working in electronics fac tories. 46. Of one-thir- one-thi- rd one-thi- rd marines, and breaking the earth's NUAL TAXES." 39. As the Russians gradually crust. Only the fear of retaliation will prevent the Russians move westward like a glacier, from starting a world war. taking ownership of all property, wise people in Europe will sell POLITICAL OUTLOOK busi11. I will now forecast who the their present property and nesses and move to the United 1960 in candidates Republican Nixon and Rockefeller. States. will be 40.1 forecast that revolutions candidates 12. The Democratic in mining will continue during Senator cannot now be forecast nomin- 1960, and you may find that you the has he thinks Kennedy are living on a valuable iron deation "sewed up"'; but Johnson if not on a gold mine. Steven-Boposit, even end Symington, and INVESTMENT OUTLOOK have large followings. 41. For the first time In 40 13. I forecast that relations with Russia will become far more years that I have been preparing Important than the question oi these Annual Outlooks. I shall not take a position, on the Inflation. 45. I forecast that the stocks Average for 1960. I am, 14. The Republican slogan In I960 will be, "It is always danger- however, inclined to believe that of electric power companies, but will not those of large cities, will be ous to swap horses going across the stock market in general fore- hold up at least until after thej in greater demand In 1960. A rapid stream." I therefore cast that the Republicans will chance of have at least a 0 success in 1960. 1960-197- 0: 15 In fact, on the basis of their: slogan, I look for a Republican close! victory, though with a very margin. 16. I forecast no reduction in taxes of any consequence during non-taxab- le n, Dow-Jon- es Tremonloa. Utah LEADER PARTICIPATE IN FRIEND'S WEDDING Mr. and Mrs. Clyde Bessinger and Miss Judy Green drove to Rawlins, Wyo., Sunday to participate in the wedding of their friend, Gaye Koffman on Monday. at The girls were roommates USU for a year at the school. Judy was to play the Wedding March was a bridesmaid. week and Janalee had their son Paul, his wife and family home for the Christmas holiday. Mitzi Hansen, their daughter, who teaches in Tucson came up with them and left on Saturday to spend a week with her brother, Dr. Don Hansen and his family in San Bernardino, Calif., before returning, to Tucson for the opening of school after the holidays. VISIT PASADENA FOR ROSE PARADE Mr. and Mrs. Fred Gephart spent Christmas with their daughter and family, - Mr. and Mre. Barry Maycock in Salt Lake City. From there, Mrs. Gephart went on to California to Visit their son. CHRISTMAS IN Burke, and family where she will CAPITOL CITY remain until after the first of the Mrs. Effie Bjorn spent a year. Mrs. Gephart will attend with Mr. and Mrs. Phillip Wrat-ha- ll the Rose Parade at Pasadena and family in Salt Lake GUESTS FROM TUCSON Mr. and Mrs. ILeland Hansen while she is there. City. it progressess. 50. There will be no marked changes in money , rates during 1960. Inflation will gradually continue, but may not be serious during VISITS FROM NEVADA Mr. and Mrs. Dennis Simmons and two children of Las Vegas, Nev., spent several days in this vicinity during the holidays. They visited with Mr. Simmons' parents, Mr. and Mrs. Thomas Simmons at Beaver Dam, and with other relatives and friends in the valley. Mr. Simmons was formerly a music teacher at Bear River High School. 1960. The best investment policy dur 50-5- WMMJMiUSSJJM 1960. 17. fense expenditures will be and the money spent on rocketry, submarines, breaking the earth's 1st nnd education. re 18. There will be very little duction in foreign aid during aou. 19. I forecast an attempt re in I960 to increase tariffs on goods Italy, imported from Germany, labor other cheap and Japan, countries. 20. I expect 1960 to be a year for our Congress. Both parties will be working for . continued prosperity. COST OF LIVING 21. I forecast no substantial reduction in living costs during wm tiffed VJLV g" I960- Surging Population, Jobs and Business Opportunities Predicted It imported cheap, automobiles are here to 22 The newly importation cannot Seir ical products. 26. Cost of wooden homes will advance to due to labor Cement and 1960. price during will displace modern machinery bricklaying. Hence, .there may cost not be much increase in the fire-proapartment of building houses. . ma27 The cost of electronic because chinery should be higher autoof the growing demand for wages. in rise the mation to offset (especially 28 Steel products from the tableware stainless) used used in homes to the steel in be will build bridges to 1960. in . greater demand 29. The demand for mos.. fooa 1960. products will increase during the This should especially help United Fruit Company, as bananas at the give the most nourishment, food. least cost, of any known 30. I forecast increases in rents, maintenance, and taxes. But sup ermarkets will compete wnn one another and the housewife should benefit therefrom. . Florida is a good place for middle-age- d people to buy a home for in a small city as insurance Perretire. when they the time should sons buying such homes the from check a depend upon denot and month North every to TO. pend upon getting Florida one in over 65 years of person in ten is ge of - iou,c of i. or commoicii jiahkwo muaich mtu naiwmai ahooatuh of manufacturers Greater Employment Totals Required for State by 1970 new JOBS WANTED 79,200 and productive industrial jobs for both men and women by 1970. Positions with strong, growing Utah firms preferred. Utah's expanding economy, with its continuing demands for goods and services in almost all areas, will be accompanied by a growing number of men and women available for jobs. It is estimated that Utah's total labor force will grow by 79,-200 persons or 27 per cent during the next ten years; from 294,900 in 1960 to 374,100 in 1970. This overall rise will include an increase of 49,000 men and 30,200 ru-ic- a 14-1- well-drain- -r r4 '- Job opportunities manded by industry. 3. coming years, with manufacturing employment gaining on the trades and services. "By its very true nature, auto mation often creates more job openings than it eliminates and the over-a- ll labor force shortage might actually be augmented. Automated devices require servicing, as well as manufacture, and more technicians are required to fill this need." Utah, where manufacturing in creased in the fifties, can enjoy a further shift from "warehouse" or service to manufacturing status provided individual savings and business capital formation is en to allow investment couraged needed for plant improvement, and job training and expansion. "T h e attrition of inflation, which is taking a big slice of the family income, is also having damaging effects on business ex pansion. The investment dollar buys less," the report states. "This problem is compounded by the fact that in the decade ahead it will require even larger invest ments for the improved tools and equipment needed to keep pace with a growing, advancing society, "People need jobs. Jobs mean tools and equipment. That means an average capital investments of $17,000 per job." . . . . . . . shifts in men 0: These conclusions, plus additional data and estimates, are presented in the accompanying illustrated feature article. rapid more skills Population Will Climb 220,200 Durinc Sixties de- Rise in Number of Skilled Workers Seen in NAM Study Population growth sufficient to add a thriving new city of 220,200 persons within Utah's borders is foreseen by 1970. The certain surge in Utah's population won't be concentrated in a single community, to be sure, The changing nature of Utah's economy during the new decade is reflected in the estimate that by 1970 there will be proportionately more white collar workers. more highly skilled manual workers and fewer unskilled laborers. These changes in the compo but the resultant change in the state will be equally dramatic. As one of the Far West "team" of 11 states outdistancing the rest of the United States with phenomenal growth, Utah will contribute a 24 per cent population Increase in the next 10 years. At the threshold of "1960-7- 0 The Dynamic Decade," Utah has estimate at 1960 population sition of Utah's labor force are projected in a study of occupational trends, just com pleted by the NAM: 1960-197- 0, White coUaraworkers (includ ing professional, technical man agerial and sales people) up 36 per cent, from 122,000 in 1960 to 165,600 by 1970; manual workers (including foremen, craftsmen, operatives Ten yeare hence it is and laborers) up 25 per cent from 109,000 to 136,100; expected to be 1,125,200. near The needs of a population greater than as re ly two-thircently as 1950 raises issues of immense economic and social sig nificance. With the rise of such issues and problems comes the danger that, individuals unless comprising state and local communities step forward to accept their responsibilities, they will pay for a nlanned economy" with the coin K of local freedom. 905,000. "A substantial percentage of growth will be younger persons or people of retirement age two groups that will be high in household head formation," ob reveals. serves Mrs. Betty Morris, NAM The projected Increase research specialist upervislng the of new Utah households is 21 per Dynamic Decade project ahead of the cent, an Growth rates of Utah housenational average. holds among various age groups As a result, Utah business win follow the patfirms will share in a greater pro- tern of state "hourglass'trends, population portion of the soaring spending There will be higher proportions for goods and services. of households formed among the To meet these projected deand older age groups. younger labor force mands, the 1960-7Most significant household head will have to be most productively Increase, especially among women, employed to insure an adequate supply of goods and services for will be in the itself and for the young and old age bracket, reflecting the desire not ftctiviely engaged in the of older persons to maintain households separate from family economy. 1 h 4!2L men AND unprecedented buying power impact of 63,345 new households will be thrust upon Utah's market places by 1970, the NAM study f 4 WOMEN up-swi- NEW BUSINESS FIRMS 0 members. Demands for goods and services beyond Utah's present operating capacities will be required by the new families making up the state's higher populatloa M. HMNWI MMOMKM V WMUMM service workers (waiters, cooks, firemen, policemen, barbers) up 28 per cent from 26,600 to 34,100. The NAM study of occupations suggests that the signifiance of Utah's growing labor force is not simply the increase in numbers but also the shifts which probably will continue to take place within the various occupational groups.' By way of highlighting this, the report shows that while wRite collar workers accounted for 36 per cent of the state's work force in 1940, by 1970 it is estimated that they will comprise 46 per cent of Utah's civilian labor force. with increase in the number of skilled craftsmen listed under manual workers as well as tha decrease in laborers, re. fleets the continued development of what might be called the sec, ond industrial revolution: an age of trained technicians and highly-skille- d specialists operating new and sometimes fantastic machin, ery. This,-couple- "This had definite ramifications for society," the report says, "first, it takes much of the physical effort out of many once . burdensome tasks thus opening these fields to women. Second, it makes for brighter, more interesting work situations. Third it makes possible higher productivity which can benefit not only the individual employe but, importantly, the con. sumer. "And, fourth, it means that youg people entering the work force will not only be better trained and more skilled, but also probably a bit older because of additional years spent in education and specialized training." The only actual decrease In a major occupational category predicted by the report is in the field of agriculture. Here the study indicates, that the 1970 number of farm workers will Be 23,300,a nine per cent decline from the total of 10-ye- ar pace-settin- . The Dynamic Decade," it leads to some striking conclusions; conclusions about a ten-yeperiod which will no doubt see great changes in the life of the state. "1960-197- greater than Forming of New Households To Pace Expanding Economy g The population and household formation surges for this and other western states underscores the fact that the area has great potentials In resources and opportunities. .. and women, young and old. Covering the 11 continental western slates, the NAM project takes a studied look at five primary facets of the future. Titled expansion in enterprises. ab bij r Labor force growth ar . . . any previous decade." 2. Business population trends women. Nevertheless, employers in the state will have a proportionately smaller vool of male workers to draw upon to fill the expanaea number of jobs which are predict ed by the NAM. One bright prospect is that more women will be available and willing to neip Dai' the relative decline in the number of male participants. The overall decline in participa tion of Utah's men in the state's labor force, first charted for 1950 bv NAM, continues. Standing at ESTATE 80 percent then, the ratio has estate real of 01 Th city fallen to 76 and is forecast at 73 will 'depend upon its parking officby 1970. privileges. Wise municipal 9 Youths in tha age group, and two old ials will pull down the in elders and mane to Kniirtincra Ultra and municipal gar- bracket, account for the entire parking lotsmore decline in the next decade, alplentiful. ages much the heart to though males over 30 32 The above also applies of an experienced labor force forecast I estate. real suburban laws will still be in short supply. that new suburban zoningvacant Describing the next decade's will require houses to have pres- population age structure as an for sufficient lots adjoining "hour glass" in which the flaring ent and future parking needs. for modern bowls of younger and older groups 33 The demand stores and for centrally located are supported by the smaller neck inof middle-age- d persons, the NAM apartments will continue to points to resultant problems. crease during 1960. "Increasing demands on produc 34. I forecast that those buildown tive capacities already strained to their for house a "single" ing an meet curent needs can threaten occupancy will also provide rent living standard progress, weaken apartment for comeconomic America's leadership 35. I forecast that large be and profitshould inflationary dang compound farms mercial era beyond present proportions." able in I960; but many operators loBoth management and labor of small farms, not properly will must suburban growth, get their houses in order cated for find mutual grounds of agree sell to some adjoining farmers. mcnt and surge ahead together, 5 small farms on land and near enough to a city the report says. Even .the autofor future suburban developments mated processes may not in themselves be a complete solution to should be held. I forecast for needed productivity increases. farms should some day sell also points to a The price. . their present study triple 37. Seashore property should M growing national trend of greater held. The government can print employment increases In trades more bonds and corporations cap and services than manufacturing, stock dividends a circumstance affording less split and declare more stocks; but only for introduction of to make God can make seashore property lutomated processes. estat' The over-a- ll western picture, 38. I forecast that real during 1960 nowever, 1s one of continued taxes will increase owners fto Wproperty manufacturing growth for th "-" r i,' tnv state's: 1. Household formations Vi be checked. De 23. Electric power rates will lowered in 1960. in 24. Clothing should cost less and 1960. In fact, most textUes less in I960. plastics will sell forBn forms of seU for less washing powder will also to applies This in 1960. chemother and "wonder drugs" 4. Dynmic economic and social dimensions for Uiah in the 1960-7-0 decade have been charted in a new National Association of Manufacturers' research project. fashion, with Utah's Soaring, rocket-sta- g continuing population climb, will be the - BUyP UTAH A DYNAMIC DECADEIFO I predict that present dereduced i 25,500 in 1960. This, too, Is a con. SOURCE. U.S. DEPT. COMMEHCf, OF MANUFACTURERS Industry Must Grow to Match Bigger Markets A superior market climate in which old and new Utah businesses alike should flourish is forecast on the eve of the Dynamic Decade of 1960-7- 0. At a pace matching the great forward strides of population, Utah can expect to host 4,700 more business firms in the next 10 years, the NAM study pre diets. This 24 per cent increase over Utah's present business popula- tion is a reflection of rapid growth of western states, where a high ratio of businesses to resident population is an historic tendency. Utah's business population estimated at 19,674 on the eve of the Dynamic Decade, will surge to 24,300 by 1970, according to NAM projections. Individuals who eventually will account for the 4,700 new business firms In Utah will best be able to meet the obligations of new market demands under a tax system revised to encourage formation, retention and reinvestment of capital. An Important aspect of the imminent period for business enterprises is the' continuing Importance of small businesses, says the NAM. Supporting these findings la "Survey of Current Business," May 1959 which states that 25 of businesses have no employees, 34 have fewer than four and only one In 20 firms employs 20 or more people, "Certainly, big business is not taking over, as sometimes Is asthe NAM concludes. sumed,'' "Rather, we are more closely approaching conditions In which firms with marginal and business abilities ere being forced out. Also, the stockpile of willing and new busstart to able financially inesses no longer Is of influential tinuation of a trend evident dur. ing recent years. In 1950, for example, farm workers accounted for 12 per cent of Utah's work force. By 1970 it is estimated they will comprise only 7 per cent This does not Indicate that agriculture, as an industry, is less important to the state, according to the report. It does indicate that new and mechanized methods on the farm are enabling the farmers to produce more foods and fibers with fewer persons and also re flects a continuing intra-staml. gration to the urban and suburban areas. size." te OF NATIONAl ASSOCIATION above-norm- al nal |