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Show Page Six - The Springville Herald - July 3, 1980 W4 SnArlnVfXP: SJ W WllW t JD! 'U i 1 U John Franklin Vice president of Finance, and Crosby Kelly of Sage Institute "HV!,,'W V) II C?V consult on planning aspects of the rapidly developing business. . - .... . 4 i -a-'-AJiU at Sage Institute who figure the mathematical probability ot laiiure ior , t f M f ? . . governments and industries world-wide, on computers housed within these '''V ' I , , bewails.' .4 teS2IX- 000 ft 1 J THEN The mathematical probability of failure had quite a different meaning to these school children who learned their 'rithmetic by rote within the walls of Jefferson School than it does today to Dr. Kent Stephens and his sage associates By Carma Morgan Many Springville residents remember the days when they learned "reading, 'ritin', and 'rithmetic" within the walls of the Jefferson School, at Eighth South and Main Street. They will be pleased to know that the3R's are still being practiced there at a level of sophistication that would have been mind boggling to them back then. The sages of Sage Institute, uncommon un-common men of genius, all, have remodeled and renovated the old school-house into a luxury office suite which houses the parent research company and several subsidiary service ser-vice companies. The Sage Institute International is a consulting firm which applies principles prin-ciples of Sage analysis to management problems of industry and government throughout the world. Their unique approach was pioneered by Dr. Kent Stephens, then a mathematician on the research staff of a major aerospace firm. He had researched, for the US Air Force, the matter of how to prevent an inadvertent launch of an intercontinental ballistics missile thus triggering a major worldwide conflagration quite by accident. ac-cident. He concluded that the probability was unlikely and the project seemed ended, until they decided to revalidate the study from a different perspective how could they fail to prevent an accidental launch. These possibilities would reveal several deficiencies. Mathematical probability showed one missile had the probability of being launched at the moment! Statistical verification was horrifying. One missile had been halted in a count-down begun when a broom handle had accidently jammed into a power source starting count-down and had failed only because a silo-door malfunctioned! Each area of probable malfunction was corrected as it was discovered. Dr. Stephens realized he had hit on to something. He developed and formalized for-malized a whole new concept of "Failure Avoidance," a system described by Howard J. Ruff of "Ruff times" as "one of the most significant discoveries of our times." The simplified equation reads: F S equals 1. As the likelihood of failure decreases, the likelihood of success increases. This concept can be applied to any problem, whether personal, economic, governmental, or mechanical. 1. Identify all areas where there is a significant chance of failure. 2. List them by priority or order of importance. 3. Propose remedies. Your chance of success is inversely proportionate to the likelihood of failure. "The real value of this system," said Crosby Kelly, a Sage Institute vice president, "is when applied to the human factor. You can devise all the sophisticated mechanical back-up systems you can think of, and they are useless in the face of 'pilot error.' " Dr. Stephens has devised mathematical formulae for the human factor and contrived a computer program which when fed the raw data of evaluations, interviews (ranked and prioritized as indicated above) and validations, supplies appropriate answers an-swers and plots critical paths on printout print-out sheets that identify the probable causes of failure and rank them in order of importance. From there, remedies or off-setting strategies can be developed. The Sage approach studies not only what should be done, but what should be avoided. It synthesizes expertise from disparate disciplines to a common problem or failure potential and marshalls them into a single analysis. Mr. Kelly emphasized the uniqueness of the approach. "Since Pilgrim days, America has been steeped in "success" philosphy, until we have been blinded to even the consideration of failure. We were vulnerable because of this gap in our vision, and this development from Fault Tree Analysis rekindles possibilites as yet unthought of." Howard Ruff, famous a couple of years ago for his book, "How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years," and Editor-in-Chief of Target Publishers Inc.'s "Ruff Times", announced in its June 1, issue his association with Sage Institute: "So you can better understand un-derstand the extent of our commitment to Stephens and Sage Associates, my partner and best friend, Terry Jeffers, who has been an integral part of building Target, has resigned as president of Target to serve as president of Sage Associates, and I will serve on its Board of Directors. We are up to our ears in involvement in this important project." Ruff has written a new book to be released in July that will explore avenues of Sage Analysis applied to his particular interests. Of his new book, "The Liquidation of America," Ruff said, "I knew that unless something fresh and new happens, hap-pens, we face the eventual failure of the capitalist system, and Free Enterprise En-terprise is headed for doom. When i grasped the power of this incredible 32 Wst 2nd South. Springville ; J-l i JJ i : ANNUAL SUMMER O SAVINGS FROM diagnostic tool, I realized that perhaps we have a tool to save the Free Enterprise En-terprise system by saving American corporations from failure . . . Failure Avoidance can literally transform a sick corporation, or even better, preserve the strength of a healthy one." Costs of a Sage Analysis obviously vary to fit the situation but probably average between $25,000 to M million dollars according to Mr. Kelly. The Sage Institute was granted a Business License by the Springville City Council at its last regular session and is rapidly moving its services into full operation here. J. Terry Jeffers, former president of The Target Companies, now with Sage Institute, In-stitute, the marketing arm of Sage International points out areas which have already expressed interest in the new efficiency technique. Jeffers, a former BYU student, wrote "My Couger World," which was recorded by Ralph Laycock and played regularly by local D.J.'s in the 60's, he said. Linda Foy feeds raw information into the data entry unit of the Sage Institute's system. Douglas Shane Kunkel, son of Mr. and Mrs. Warren Kunkel, Springville, has recently enlisted in the 116th Engineer Co. (CSE) of the Utah National Guard. Kunkel graduated from Springville High School in May and will begin Basic Training at Fort Dix, New Jersey, on July 28. In addition to the training given to all Army enlistees, he will receive additional instruction in diesel mechanics. Upon completion of this training, Kunkel will begin schooling at Utah Technical College under the National Guard's paid-tuition program. 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