| Show TIlE THE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK A contributor to tn the current num her ber of Moodys the question IL a financial ends Is Impending and while hoe ho not nol pro to answer time the question In the he the tho comparisons tie he draws IndustrIal anti tho those o at al the time of for tor tumor financial depressions thaI hat hatho ho belIeves that thaI a crisis Is IR nt at the door dor tInny things thIng hoe he says In our present sItuation hut hore be serIous h l and they the reeling feeling that ex cx ceases CeSIN will bear the tho inevitable fruition rIme writer argues that OUr every titian is 18 In a peculiar to Itself anti hUll bus Its specIfic tivo causell b t that some are common to all For thIs reason there are preceding Indications These are arel l 1 An Increase III prices first of timer thun In a 11 II les s do dc gree gre of oC commodities generally and tat or r ot of real estate improved Improve anti un tin improved Z 2 activity ot of establish enterprises anti the formatIon or of titan hew lit if tho those o which for tor Increased production or improved methods such Buch nil as factories anti ami S and alt requiring the tho change ot Of circulating to fixed capital 3 All Au actIve for loans III at a slightly hl hIgher her rate ot of interest f 4 Tue Ihl general employment of nt or r I 5 extravagance In I vote ale anti 1111 public I Ia C a The development of at a mania tor or speculation b by dishonest t I methods ta In business anti tue tho gullibility i of at Investors I Ii i 7 A great expansion or of discounts and IannI anti IL 11 resulting rise In the rate rato or of Interest also n a In increase crease In walles attended by I frequent strikes strikeR and by In II number uC of to moot meet the demand ar are said Ild to 10 too I general Ions or of harl Inn of them loom to 10 he be stare arc indica ions of ProsPerItY but LUI they mire pro cursors of at dl dIsaster It in III sabi I In the lilt case ot of Thou ht writer goes on onto onto to show what hal the present are lie draws drawl parallels between the of Chicago n time calamity ot of this year In California buIlding are given showing the enormous absorption ot Of capital It 1111 is n fact wo we arc told that It its always a 11 short horl time previous to the tho beginning ot of a o pa ot of depression loh Then statistics lire are quoted to prove proe that record nur for tor labor Its employment antI then are aro not ll or of prosperity hul ot of the there thereof or of On this point the author says In 15 1 the wan as tn in percentage vas wal DT 9 In ISM 1160 percentage was In 1861 percentage 1 was gain the percentage In 1891 1801 was wall l In I It was 93 and In I 1191 I It was 9 S Take In 1 1891 91 the p percentage employed ed was OJ It was wall In 13 18 and In 1893 1593 No general or of the total nurn num numbEr bEr employed Is readily for NEw York hut hilt the ot of union Wage Carriers Idle In the first quarter or of this year compared with the tho corro period III ii previous II worth noting For or time quarter ot or the tl Idle wa was 66 nr It was Willi 87 7 per In 19 1903 per cent In Iii per cent itt In 1903 1103 U 6 I vet vcr ert tH In 1902 Ito tOOl an amid l lot I pet per cent In 1900 The percentage of unemployed In the year Car wal waa IS I I It t Zhe he theory that tic present cycle ot of pro prosperity began In IS ISIS S antI that with witha a bait haJt In 1903 1801 It Il has haa until hum present Is fortified bY these O Oure ftc Uros ure The writer further the pre high prices In and the cost ost or of liv living InK ing the orein trade trude aud the mont mone markets which lie are being to n a terrible m toeing thrown to time the winds and a debauch IIII tit of speculation having set lIet In lie HI also points out that building are on on it 11 vast l During the year 1904 th In such In 20 amounted to 10 antI last year the was n year flIr the bl be It is IR thought train 30 10 to W ip per cen cent treat great Ir Cr liar In 1 iDOL 05 I is III alid lie hI used to 10 tuti nd vantage In lout KIlO a crisis set In I it Ie show thai tha I 11 IDle experts 10 the situation with 11 of nt husi busl III lies to 10 the tho Bee on and baltic a 11 c eh ut if the Is reuth estate 1111 it II 13 I apparent that period ot of pro prosperity which In 1 imn hn how reached thIs phase or of its car career r We do 10 not lUll care to rollo th this ar u In nil all Itil It tI ns II lon long till miU ther m tire lire no other Indications ot of a slon baum trial activity KI good I ell the g r lit it near neRr lit hand Ith re garti to 10 the tho Indications presented b by buIlding n a moro mere nu rind view Is IR II by the Record to which time tho noted notel is IR but 1 a natural created l h by oum OUI growth Tue fleeced that We e have outgrown our railroads and quotes fI figures to Noe this I 1891 95 anti and 1904 lit railroad mileage III hut but t ii i ier the total ton mileage or of freight rattle increased n a little less than per cent antI the mileage 78 16 per percent Ier lent cent All As for tor the Ihu future It is III calculated limit In 1910 tIme the or of time country i hii bo be antI that between now 1926 the gain In will sIli bo be but bill a 0 little than the total or of the country as aa limIt lat nil as 1880 1850 It is 18 estimated l th l the tho 13 mileage o tons or of freIght trot no ne of at 1901 wilt will have hwo grown to between and tell len years earll hence as n a minimum development that It If tho railroads of oC tIme tho country are arc II to up to 10 the demands ot of th the times these n lIre mean that on u a niost t basis there must ho he hen hoa n a gain ot of roo 10 per tn in the lie total rail railroad road facilitIes tn ten years hence corn com with tuda today T 1110 lie mate of the lute E Edward ward thaI bitt during the he ten or fifteen years this country countr must t average 1003 ot of new track it fl year seems not 1101 According to this rOil 11 lIon sion is III an Indication ot of continued pros pent not the opposite The tic lit view ot of the Immediate future hall Imis apparently time the foundation but Lut a word or ot of wantIng is III always timma l I lest We forget that rAre care Is needed to 0 disaster no ma matter tier how bright the outlook IOn may b be |
